New York Democrats are hoping that this will be the year that they take control of the executive’s office in Dutchess County, a competitive Hudson Valley community that’s home to Franklin Roosevelt’s lifetime home of Hyde Park, though it remains to be seen who will step up. This will likely be an open seat race because unelected incumbent Bill O’Neill, who was sworn in after fellow Republican Marc Molinaro resigned to join Congress, says he expects to be only a caretaker.
The GOP field began to take shape this week when former state Sen. Sue Serino kicked off her campaign with the support of several prominent local Republicans, including Sheriff Kirk Imperati. Serino lost re-election last year 53-47 to Democratic colleague Michelle Hinchey after redistricting led the two incumbents to seek the same constituency. Another Republican, East Fishkill Town Supervisor Nick D’Alessandro, has also filed to run but hasn’t announced yet.
Dutchess County used to be reliably red turf, so much so that FDR famously didn't carry it in any of his four presidential campaigns, though it’s more competitive these days. The county has supported Democrats during each of the last four presidential elections, and Joe Biden took it 54-44 four years after Hillary Clinton won here just 47.5-47.2. Last year, however, local voters favored Republican Lee Zeldin 52-48 over Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul.
Republicans have held the county executive’s post since 1991, and they’ve held off Democratic attempts to flip it. Democrats in 2019 hoped to defeat Molinaro to prevent him from challenging Democratic Rep. Antonio Delgado the following year in New York's old 19th Congressional District, but he prevailed by a convincing 58-41.
Molinaro, who sat out that race, eventually got a seat in Congress last year by narrowly winning the new 19th even though it doesn’t include any of Dutchess County. Most of his old constituents are instead represented by 18th District Rep. Pat Ryan, a Democrat who’d beaten Molinaro a few months before in a special election conducted under the old lines; the balance of Dutchess County is in the 17th, which is held by freshman GOP Rep. Mike Lawler.