Ukraine claims to have retaken more than 1,000 sq km (385 sq miles) of territory in its south and east from Russia in the last week. The counteroffensive continues.
The rapid progress of Ukraine’s latest attack has threatened key Russian supply lines in the eastern Donbas region and comes a week after Kyiv launched a separate offensive in the south, around the town of Kherson.
Both operations show Ukrainian forces, augmented with high-precision western weapons, taking the initiative after six months of being on the defensive.
Speaking after a Nato meeting in Brussels, US secretary of state Antony Blinken noted “positive” signs that Kyiv was retaking territory.
“It’s early days, but it is demonstrably making real progress . . . [making] a significant advance, moving some 45 to 50km in one area past what had been the existing Russian line,” he said.
He added that while it was early, Ukraine was “proceeding in a very deliberate way with a strong plan and, critically, enabled by resources that many of us are providing”.
In Prague US defence secretary Lloyd Austin also noted “success in Kherson now” and “some success in Kharkiv”, adding it was “very, very encouraging”.
www.ft.com/...
Driving the news: Ukraine launched its long-awaited push on Kherson in southern Ukraine last week, before following up with a rapid advance near Kharkiv in the northeast that seems to have caught Vladimir Putin's troops by surprise.
- A Ukrainian general said Friday that Ukraine's forces had advanced about 50km (31 miles) in three days of fighting in the region. Images spread of Ukrainian troops entering town after town, greeted by joyous residents who spent six months under occupation.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hailed the "good news" but added, "now is not the time to name the settlements to which the Ukrainian flag returns."
- The surprise Ukrainian offensive seems to be aimed at cutting off the Russian forces defending Izyum, a key logistics hub for Russian operations in the north, and eventually taking the city itself, says Michael Kofman, a top expert on Russia's military at CNA.
www.axios.com/...
Supporting Effort #1- Kharkiv City and Eastern Kharkiv Oblast (Russian objective: Defend ground lines of communication – GLOCs – to Izyum and prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Ukrainian forces secured substantial gains in Kharkiv Oblast on September 8 and are advancing on Kupyansk, a key node in Russia’s GLOCs supporting the Izyum axis. Ukrainian forces have likely advanced to positions within 15km of Kupyansk and will shell the town overnight. Russian rear positions in Kharkiv Oblast are now exposed to further Ukrainian advances, and Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk within the next 72 hours. Geolocated footage shows that Ukrainian forces recaptured Borshchyvka and Ivanivka along the E40.[46] Ukrainian forces likely captured Shevchenkove or bypassed the settlement and advanced toward Hrushivka, given geolocated footage of Ukrainian forces in Borivske (20 km southwest of Kupyansk) and a Russian report of fighting near Hrushivka.[47] A Russian source reported that Ukrainian forces captured Savintsi, Rakivka, and Dovhalivka, all just north of Zalyman on the R78.[48] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces have reached transportation hubs at Vesele and Kunye, 10km east on the R78 from Savinsti, but there is currently no evidence to support this claim.[49] Ukrainian forces continued their drive southeast on the N26 highway towards Kupyansk, advancing at least to Shevchenkove (roughly 35km west of Kupyansk), where geolocated imagery shows Ukrainian forces at the settlement’s entrance and most Russian sources report fighting remains ongoing.[50] The loss of Kupyansk and other rear areas on critical GLOCS will hinder Russian efforts to support offensive and defense operations, but will not completely sever Russian lines of communication to Izyum.
Ukrainian forces’ relatively quick speed of advance, proximity to Kupyansk, and ability to shell the city are prompting panic in Russian rear areas. Geolocated footage shows damage from a likely Ukrainian strike on a Russian military headquarters in occupied Kupyansk.[51] Kharkiv Oblast occupation administration head Vitaly Ganchev announced the evacuation of all women and children from Kupyansk City and Kupyansk Raion as well as Izyum Raion, citing increased Ukrainian artillery and rocket strikes but most likely due to the ongoing ground operations.[52] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that occupation authorities in Chuhuiv Raion, Kharkiv Oblast, are forcibly mobilizing men of conscription age by detaining them and sending them to Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast, likely to prevent these men from supporting advancing Ukrainian forces.[53]
Ukrainian forces recaptured Balakliya on September 8. Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian forces calmly operating within the center of Balakliya, raising a Ukrainian flag on the city council building, and conducting clearing operations.[54] The Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot in Balakliya, inadvertently confirming that Russian forces no longer control the city.[55] Several Russian milbloggers acknowledged Ukraine’s capture of Balakiya while others denied it.[56] Some Russian sources claimed that Russian forces had either surrendered or withdrawn from Balakliya, emphasizing the extent of discord within the Russian information space about the progress of Ukrainian military operations north of Izyum.[57]
Ukrainian forces likely made minor territorial gains north of Kharkiv City. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces shelled Male Vesele (roughly 20km northeast of Kharkiv City), indicating that Ukrainian forces have retaken the settlement on an unspecified date likely within the past few days.[58] A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces retook Dementiivka (north of Kharkiv City on the E105) and Sosnivka (11km from the Kharkiv-Russia border) on September 7.[59]
Russian forces attempted limited ground assaults north of Kharkiv City on September 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults near Dementiivka, Prudyanka (north of Kharkiv City on the T2117), and Konstantynivka (13km north of Zolochiv).[60] Russian forces struck an administrative building in Kharkiv City with S-300 rounds and continued routine artillery strikes on the surrounding settlements.[61]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks south of Izyum and around Slovyansk on September 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Dibrivne and Dovhenke, both approximately 25km south of Izyum.[32] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults in the area of the Sviati Hory National Nature Park (about 20km northeast of Slovyansk) and Bohorodychne (about 12km northwest of Slovyansk).[33] Russian forces also conducted routine artillery strikes along the Izyum-Slovyansk line and on areas north and northeast of Slovyansk.[34]
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack northeast of Siversk on September 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack on Hryhorivka, about 10km northeast of Siversk.[35] Russian forces continued routine artillery strikes on settlements around Siversk.[36]
Russian forces continued ground attacks northeast and south of Bakhmut on September 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks near Zaitseve, Mykolaivka Druha, and Mayorsk, all within 20km south of Bakhmut.[37] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack in Soledar, about 10km northeast of Bakhmut.[38] Russian sources claimed on September 8 that Russian and DNR forces moved into the residential areas of Soledar, where Ukrainian forces are still defending.[39]
Russian forces conducted a limited ground attack along the northwestern, western, and northern outskirts of Donetsk City on September 8. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian troops attacked Pervomaiske (12km northwest of the outskirts of Donetsk City), Nevelske (12km northwest of Donetsk City), Mariinka (about 22 km west of Donetsk), and Kamyanka (about 18km north of Donetsk City).[40] DNR Militia Head Eduard Basurin claimed on September 8 that Russian and proxy forces are expanding the springboard near Pisky towards Tonenke in an effort to surround Avdiivka.[41] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces captured positions near a hilly area in Pisky, a formerly heavily fortified Ukrainian area.[42] Russian sources claimed that DNR forces finished clearing the western part of the Donetsk City airport and reached the ring road in the area of Opytne, approximately 5km northwest of Donetsk City.[43]
Russian forces conducted a limited ground assault in western Donetsk Oblast on September 8. A senior Ukrainian General Staff official reported that Russian forces conducted an unsuccessful assault on Vremivka, about 75km west of Donetsk City.[44] Russian forces continued routine shelling and airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in the area between Donetsk City and the Zaporizhia Oblast border.[45]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian occupation officials continued to accuse Ukrainian forces of shelling and conducting drone attacks against Enerhodar. The Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Internal Affairs Minister Vitaly Kiselyov published footage of damage to the Enerhodar occupation administration building’s roof following a claimed Ukrainian loitering munition strike on the building.[68] Russian sources also claimed to have arrested an individual responsible for spotting targets for Ukrainian drones in Enerhodar.[69] Russian-backed Zaporizhia Oblast Military-Civilian Administration Head Vladimir Rogov claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled Enerhodar, but did not provide any visual evidence supporting his accusation.[70] Rogov also claimed that only the sixth reactor at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) is operating, and at an extremely low capacity.[71]
Russian forces continued to fire multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) and heavy tube artillery at Nikopol and launched a cruise missile at Kryvyi Rih Raion on September 8.[72] Ukrainian officials also reported that Russian forces launched Kh-22 cruise missiles at Bereznehuvate Hromada (territorial community) and continued shelling along the Mykolaiv-Kherson Oblast border.[73] Social media users published footage showing smoke at the Saky Air Base in western Crimea and a cloud of smoke in Yevpatoria.[74]
www.understandingwar.org/...
2/ I would caveat that much remains unclear about these offensives. And, as every military leader knows, first reports can be wrong! But, there is sufficient information - without compromising operational security - to draw initial conclusions about operations around #Kharkiv.
3/ It is clear that the Ukrainians have achieved surprise against the Russians in the #Kharkiv region. The Ukrainians attacked what appears to have been a thinly defended area and have achieved a significant penetration into Russian rear areas.
4/ That they were able to exploit this opportunity indicates that Ukraine maintained a significant mobile operational reserve, containing combined arms teams supported by fires and logistics.
5/ And once again, the Ukrainians have been able to pull off a good operational level deception plan. While the focus was on the south, they assembled and launched an operation in the north. Kudos (again) to Ukrainian leaders and planners.
6/ While the southern offensives continue, and is vital to Ukraine’s economic future, the #Kharkiv offensive has tactical and operational implications for that region and the war more broadly.
7/ First, it will compromise Russian operations on their eastern front, particularly if both Kupiansk and Izium are captured by Ukraine. It compromises Russian supply routes and introduces a larger psychological issue with Russians fighting in the east.
8/ It also makes it difficult for Russia to continue to fight in the east without dealing with this threat to their rear areas and logistics.
9/ The Ukrainian advance deep into the Russian-held areas of Ukraine in the north will demand that Russia rush reinforcements here - potentially impacting their ability to defend parts of the south. Perhaps the new Russian 3rd Army Corps is an option?
10/ The shifting of Russian forces means they can’t be used while moving between different parts of the country. This redeployment of forces will also create other weaknesses and opportunities that the Ukrainians can exploit.
11/ Potentially, we could see cascading Russian tactical withdrawals and failures in various regions as a consequence. This is, having a superior tempo to the enemy and a rapid identification and exploitation of opportunities, is the essence of operational art.
12/ There are outcomes for influence operations from this operation in the north. Especially for Russia and it’s supporters. But it also shapes the current ‘supporters of Ukraine’ meeting in Germany and popular opinion/support in the west.
13/ The Ukrainians will be going through a lot of fuel and ammo, but these offensives are the kinds of operations for which good military organisations stockpile for well in advance (and the Ukrainians are good).
14/ Deception has been central to all Ukrainian preparations for this phase of the war. The Ukrainians have obviously taken care to quietly stockpile military resources and place units in reserve to be able exploit opportunities like what has occurred in the north.
15/ There are likely to be significant Russian material losses in the north, given the speed of the Ukrainian advance. Overrunning Russian supply depots (especially with artillery ammo and fuel) will further hurt the Russians and help Ukraine.
16/ We might also see large numbers of Russian prisoners in the north. Not only are these hard to replace, given Russian recruiting problems, it is a strategic influence coup for Ukraine. And a real problem for Putin.
17/ This #Kharkiv offensive also represents an excellent marriage of operational art and military strategy. Operationally, the Ukrainians are sequencing, prioritising and adapting their tactical battles across time and geography to meet strategic objectives.
18/ Strategically, the Ukrainians continue to implement their strategy of corrosion, which attacks Russia at their weak points, and destroys their logistics, C2, and morale to corrode front line forces from within.
The ingenious strategy that could win the war for Ukraine
The consistent Ukrainian military campaign is successfully corroding the Russian offensive and may deliver an unlikely, but historic, victory.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/the-ingenious-strategy-that-could-win-the-war-for-ukraine-20220517-p5alz4.html
19/ Clearly there are tactical and operational risks. A Russian counterattack might ‘pinch off’ the penetration & isolate the advancing Ukrainians. But the Russians need to move quick to do this, have sufficient reserves, as well as defend other areas on exterior lines.
20/ But as we have seen so far in this war, the Ukrainian command philosophy of delegation and exploiting opportunities is superior to the Russian more centralised, plodding method. It will be hard (not impossible) for Russia to respond to the current Ukrainian operational tempo.
21/ The Russians, while not beaten, are in real trouble at the moment. Because of this, we should watch for some unexpected reaction from Putin. He has shown no signs of wanting to pull back from this invasion.
22/ And lest we get too triumphalist, we should remember that Luhansk and large parts of Donetsk and southern #Ukraine remain occupied by the Russians. Subsequent Ukrainian offensives will be necessary to clear these areas.
23/ Despite all this, we must give the Ukrainians their due. There is a way to go, but they have achieved surprise, deceived the enemy about their intentions and conducted a series of offensives that have thrown the Russians onto the back foot.
24/ Ukraine probably now has the initiative as well as tactical and operational momentum going into the winter. The war is far from over, but perhaps the tide is finally turning. End. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/…
25/ Thank you to those whose images I used in this thread: @DefenceU @IAPonomarenko @WarMonitor3 @UAWeapons @War_Mapper @Militarylandnet @ChuckPfarrer @TheDeadDistrict @nytimes @MaxBoot @EliotHiggins
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Washington (AFP) – Rebuilding Ukraine following the devastation caused by the Russian invasion will cost an estimated $349 billion, according to a report issued Friday.
But the figure, which totals 1.5 times the size of the Ukrainian economy, is considered a minimum and is expected to grow in the coming months as the war continues, according to the joint assessment by the government of Ukraine, the European Commission, and the World Bank.
Physical damage alone inflicted since the invasion in late February through June 1 already totaled $97 billion, the report said.
"The Russian invasion of Ukraine continues to exact a terrible toll, from significant civilian casualties and the displacement of millions of people to the widespread destruction of homes, businesses, social institutions, and economic activity," said Anna Bjerde, the World Bank's regional vice president for Europe and Central Asia.
Over the next 36 months the report estimates that $105 billion will be needed to address urgent needs such as restoring education and health systems and infrastructure, preparing for the upcoming winter through restoration of heating and energy to homes, support to agriculture, and repair of vital transport routes.
www.france24.com/…