Hurricane Ian, which was predicted to reach Cat 4 status with 140 mph sustained winds, has strengthened overnight to a near Cat 5 hurricane with 155 mph sustained winds. It had an eye replacement cycle (ERC) overnight resulting in a larger eye and wider wind field.
Catastrophic storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground, catastrophic wind damage, tornadoes and heavy rainfall is expected along the southwestern coast of Florida beginning in the next few hours.
A closer look at the track across Florida. The Tampa area has not experienced a hurricane of this strength before, perhaps its luck is running out.
And across South Carolina.
Animation of Hurricane Ian’s path across Florida in over 24 hours after landfall, tracking across Lakeland, Orlando and Daytona Beach
Warnings and areas affected from www.nhc.noaa.gov/.. —
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* Dry Tortugas
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Suwannee River southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West
* Dry Tortugas
* Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the St. Mary's River
* St. Johns River
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas
* Indian Pass to the Anclote River
* All of the Florida Keys
* Flamingo to South Santee River
* Flamingo to Chokoloskee
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big Pine Key
* Florida Bay
* Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River
Rain forecast -
- Florida Keys and South Florida: 6 to 8 inches, with local maxima
up to 12 inches.
- Central and Northeast Florida: 12 to 18 inches, with local
maxima up to 24 inches.
- Eastern Georgia and Coastal South Carolina: 4 to 8 inches, with
local maxima of 12 inches.
Storm surge amounts — over 9 feet in many areas far from the coast.
Areas with very high storm surge forecasts —
* Englewood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor...12-16 ft
* Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood... 6-10 ft
* Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee...7-11 ft
* Anclote River to Middle of Longboat Key, including Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
* Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable...4-7 ft
Northeastern Florida, the Georgia coast and South Carolina also need to prepare, as Hurricane Ian could pick up strength again as it travels over the Atlantic ocean for about 24 hours.
Satellite and radar images of Hurricane Ian
Ian’s upper layer effects already reach the entire east coast all the way to Canada.
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
Comaprisons with Hurricane Charley
Ian has similarities with hurricane Charley in 2004 which killed 35 people (15 direct deaths) and did $25 billion in damage along a similar track. Even though Charley had 150 mph winds at landfall, it was a much more compact and a much faster moving storm compared to Ian. Ian’s storm surge and inland flood damage is expected to be much greater than Charley’s. yaleclimateconnections.org/…
How a competent and caring administration responds
The Biden Administration has been on top of the developing situation and has been mobilizing resources, without great fanfare, unlike republicans, for whom even a hurricane is an opportunity to score political points and to pad their pockets.
Hurricanes and Climate Change
The science is clear on the effects of climate change on hurricanes and severe weather, besides other catastrophic repercussions for life on earth. We need to keep reminding and educating the population and decision makers and keep neutralizing the relentless disinformation campaign from the right and the republican party.
It’s good to see more coverage on this issue in the mainstream media.
Prof. Mann -
"These storms are on average 20-30% more intense and destructive, owing to the roughly 1C (2F) warming of the oceans that has taken place so far," Dr. Michael E. Mann, climate scientist and director of the Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media at the University of Pennsylvania, told Salon by email. "They also produce as much as 30% more flooding rainfall due to a combination of more evaporation from a warmer ocean surface and stronger winds that entrain more moisture into the storms."
But the relentless disinformation campaign from the right on climate change never stops. We have to keep countering it at every step. People are susceptible to repeated lies and juvenile mockery, since the average person does not understand the science of climate change.
Epilogue
We are officially in peak Atlantic hurricane season now and there are many more weeks left in the season. So far it has been a relatively quiet season, but one catastrophic hurricane is all it takes change the picture. Hurricane Fiona was already a devastating storm for the Caribbean islands and Nova Scotia. The effects of climate change on ocean currents and ocean temperatures are real and storms are predicted to get stronger and wetter, even if the number of storms does not change much.
Hopefully, areas along the gulf coast of Florida have made adequate preparations. For those further inland, please keep an eye on the weather forecasts and pay attention to local announcements and make preparations before the storm gets too close.
And let’s convince a few more folks to get out and vote for Democrats; that’s the only chance we have to save our precious earth.
Additional links and resources
- NHC — www.nhc.noaa.gov
- Puerto Rico Power outage map — poweroutage.us/...
- www.fema.gov
- Real-time aircraft reconnaissance data and lots of other technical info — www.tropicaltidbits.com/…
- The Atlantic Hurricane season - Sept 22 : Fiona is still a threat while Invest 98L is revving up — www.dailykos.com/…
- Global Warming and Hurricanes — www.gfdl.noaa.gov/...
- How climate change is making hurricanes more dangerous — yaleclimateconnections.org/…
- Hurricane Dorian Forecasts, Updates and Science - Part 2 — www.dailykos.com/...
- How To Tame a Hurricane — www.dailykos.com/…
Resources
Ian Is Becoming a Monster. Here are Shelter Resources (Including Pet Friendly) That Could Help — www.dailykos.com/...