Continued combat losses compel Russia to try legitimating its annexed territories in the hope for negotiated settlements that might let them keep their imperialist spoils. Even then, there's the issue of the port of Sevastopol.
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued ground attacks south of Bakhmut on September 19. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks around Mykolaivka Druha (18km south of Bakhmut), Kurdyumivka (20km southwest of Bakhmut), Zaitseve (12km southeast of Bakhmut), and Vesela Dolyna (8km southeast of Bakhmut).[25] Russian sources claimed that Wagner Group fighters took control of the Donbasskaya 750 electrical substation, about 12km southeast of Bakhmut, although ISW cannot independently verify these claims.[26] Russian forces additionally fired on Ukrainian positions along the Bakhmut and Avdiivka-Donetsk City frontlines.[27] Several Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops are conducting counter-offensive operations southwest of Donetsk City near the border with eastern Zaporizhia Oblast.[28] ISW cannot independently confirm claims of Ukrainian counterattacks in western Donetsk Oblast, but growing concern amongst Russian sources regarding Ukrainian actions may prompt Russian forces to reallocate forces to this area.
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Eastern Ukraine: (Vovchansk-Kupyansk-Izyum-Lyman Line)
Ukrainian forces likely continued to consolidate their gains on the eastern bank of the Oskil River on September 19. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian troops destroyed a Ukrainian grouping in Dvorichne, a settlement on the left bank of the Oskil River near the Kharkiv-Luhansk border and approximately 40km south of the Russian border.[8] Another Russian source similarly noted that Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian pontoon crossing near Dvorichne and that Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are operating in the area.[9] These unconfirmed Russian claims suggest that Ukrainian troops have continued limited and localized operations to cross the Oskil River and threaten Russian positions on the opposing bank. A Russian source additionally noted that Ukrainian troops are strengthening their grouping in Kharkiv Oblast using captured Russian T-72 tanks, suggesting that the initial panic of the counter-offensive led Russian troops to abandon higher-quality equipment in working order, rather than the more damaged equipment left behind by Russian forces retreating from Kyiv in April, further indicating the severity of the Russian rout.[10]
Ukrainian forces likely continued offensive operations along the Lyman-Yampil-Bilohorivka line on September 19. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Head Denis Pushilin claimed that fighting is ongoing in Yarova, 20km northwest of Lyman, confirming that Ukrainian troops likely advanced eastward from previously captured positions in Sviatohirsk.[11] Russian sources claimed that Russian forces are still in control of Yampil and Lyman, but that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are operating along the entire Lyman-Yampil-Bilohorivka line.[12] Geolocated combat footage confirms that Ukrainian troops have retaken Bilohorivka, which lies along the Donetsk-Luhansk Oblast border and within 20km of the Lysychansk-Severodonetsk area.[13]
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Supporting Effort- Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces did not conduct any ground attacks in Zaporizhia Oblast west of Hulyaipole and continued routine shelling against Ukrainian positions on September 19.[29] Ukraine’s Zaporizhia Regional Military Administration reported that Russian forces shelled critical infrastructure and residential areas across the oblast.[30] Ukrainian Zaporizhia Regional State Administration head Oleksandr Starukh reported that Russian S-300 missiles struck a transformer substation and several villages in central Zaporizhia Oblast.[31]
Official Ukrainian forces reported several Russian strikes on Mykolayiv City and the surrounding areas on September 19.[32] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that six S-300 missiles and three Smerch (MLRS) rockets struck industrial and civilian facilities in Mykolayiv City on September 19.[33] Local city authorities reported that the Russian strikes damaged several buildings and a segment of the city tram network.[34]
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2/ During this offensive, I had the opportunity to visit
#Ukraine and to speak with high level military and government officials. I took away three key observations from the visit.
3/ First, the Ukrainians are competent. This is a gross understatement. No military this century has had to fight across all the domains of war concurrently, and do so against a larger and better armed adversary.
4/ Their most important preparation for this war was not physical but intellectual. They re-trained their troops away from Soviet centralised command methods to adopt more decentralised C2. This has been a clear difference between the two belligerents.
5/ Beyond this, the Ukrainians have adopted what I have described elsewhere as a strategy of corrosion. They have attacked the Russians at their weak points constantly, destroyed their logistics, and slowly killed as many Russian battlefield leaders as possible.
6/ At the strategic level, their global influence campaign has set a new benchmark for effectiveness. This Ukrainian competence has resulted in a military institution that is now without peer in the art and science of 21st century warfare.
7/ Second, the Ukrainians are proud of their national effort - military, civil, diplomatic and informational - to defend their nation against the depredations of the murderous, yet bungling, Russian Army.
8/ It is not a pride that features flag waving and empty patriotic gestures. It is a quiet, humble pride that one finds in the alert posture of every soldier, and confident step of the officials and military officers with whom I met.
9/ Finally, the Ukrainians are confident. They know they can win this war. Zelensky stated that “we don’t believe there is compromise when it comes to Russia. There are only conditions, especially the departure of Russia from Ukraine.”
10/ Partially, this is a result of their achievements in the Battles of Kyiv, Kharkiv and elsewhere. The Ukrainians have seized the strategic initiative in this war, and are taking back huge swathes of their territory from the Russians.
11/But there is another more vital source of their confidence; the Ukrainians know exactly what they are fighting for. They fight for their people and their country. And they believe strongly that they are fighting for the larger idea that all democracies matter.
12/ Every single Ukrainian interlocutor I met with in Kyiv had but a single message; give us the right tools in the right quantity to get the job done. They know they can beat the Russians, but appreciate that this is predicated on continued western aid.
13/ The coming winter is an opportunity for the west to surge its support to Ukraine. President Zelensky noted in our talks, “we are not after countries compromising their own security, but we need more military assistance.”
14/ There was a consistent message in what is needed: air defence; tanks and armoured infantry fighting vehicles; long range fires; soldier equipment; UAVs; and, counter UAV systems.
15/ Some in the west talk of the limits of Ukraine to absorb additional military aid. But Ukrainians know themselves, and this war, better than any western official, and have mastered modern war to a degree not achieved in any western military. We should defer to their judgement.
16/ There is much more we can do to support them. I have proposed that my own country send more armoured vehicles and equipment, and that it better amplify Ukrainian messaging in the global information domain.
17/ The coming months are an opportunity for Australia and others to demonstrate true commitment to Ukraine and their victory over Russia. This is an even more compelling need if Russia does begin to mobilise.
18/ The sacrifices of
#Ukraine in the past 8 months have been to ensure that ‘government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish’ from their small patch of this earth. It’s why they fight. And why the west must support them more. End
• • •
After weeks of battlefield setbacks in Ukraine, Moscow appears to have buckled under pressure and plowed ahead with a new phase in the war: urgent “referendums” to annex stolen Ukrainian land and harsh prison terms for defiant troops.
The double whammy began with the announcement early Tuesday that Russia’s State Duma passed legislation introducing stricter punishments for any troops who “voluntarily” surrender on the frontline or refuse to follow orders.
Deserters would get up to 15 years behind bars, while those who surrender face a 10-year sentence. Those who refuse to follow the orders of their commanders face three years.
The legislation, which for the first time also adds the concepts of “mobilization, martial law and wartime” to the Russian Criminal Code, has widely been seen as the first step to launching full-scale mobilization.
After unanimous approval by the State Duma, the legislation will be sent to the Federation Council on Wednesday, according to state media. With the Federation Council also expected to get on board, the new prison terms will come into force as soon as Putin signs the bill–which could happen as soon as Wednesday.
Bizarrely, the legislation was already marked as having been approved at all stages in the government portal as of Wednesday afternoon.
www.thedailybeast.com/...
Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of the latter of which is not under Russian control) suggests that Ukraine’s ongoing northern counter-offensive is panicking proxy forces and some Kremlin decision-makers. The legislatures of Russia’s proxies in occupied Ukraine, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR), each called on their leadership to “immediately” hold a referendum on recognizing the DNR and LNR as Russian subjects.[1] Russian propagandist and RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan spoke glowingly of the call, referring to it as the “Crimean scenario.” She wrote that by recognizing occupied Ukrainian land as Russian territory, Russia could more easily threaten NATO with retaliatory strikes for Ukrainian counterattacks, “untying Russia’s hands in all respects.”[2]
This approach is incoherent. Russian forces do not control all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Annexing the claimed territories of the DNR and LNR would, therefore, have Russia annex oblasts that would be by Kremlin definition partially ”occupied” by legitimate Ukrainian authorities and advancing Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian strikes into Russian-annexed Crimea clearly demonstrate that Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s illegally annexed territory do not automatically trigger Russian retaliation against NATO, as Simonyan would have her readers believe. Partial annexation at this stage would also place the Kremlin in the strange position of demanding that Ukrainian forces unoccupy “Russian” territory, and the humiliating position of being unable to enforce that demand. It remains very unclear that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be willing to place himself in such a bind for the dubious benefit of making it easier to threaten NATO or Ukraine with escalation he remains highly unlikely to conduct at this stage.
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Sept 20 (Reuters) - Russia's Black Sea fleet has relocated some of its submarines from port of Sevastopol in Crimea to Novorossiysk in Krasnodor Krai in southern Russia, the British military said on Tuesday.
On 23 February 2014, a pro-Russian rally took place in Sevastopol’s Nakhimov Square declaring allegiance to Russia and protesting against the new government in Kyiv following the overthrow of the president, Viktor Yanukovych.[33] On 27 February, pro-Russian militia, including Russian troops, seized control of government buildings in Crimea, and by 28 February, controlled other strategic locations such as the military airport in Sevastopol.[34][35]
On 16 March 2014, an internationally unrecognized referendum was held in Sevastopol with official results claiming a 89.51% turnout and 95.6% of voters choosing to join Russia. Almost all countries of the United Nations General Assembly, as well as Ukraine consider the referendum illegal and illegitimate.[36][37]
On 18 March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea, incorporating the Republic of Crimea and federal city of Sevastopol as federal subjects of Russia.[38][39] However, the annexation remains internationally unrecognized, with most countries recognizing Sevastopol as a city with special status within Ukraine.[40]
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