Right off the bat, what I’m writing here is based primarily on what my instincts are telling me is going on in Ukraine at the moment. I’ll walk you through why I’m thinking about this, but don’t pass it on as anything but speculation. I am most likely wrong. I’m only writing because it’s one of those hunches that won’t leave me alone. So I’ll share it with you all and your joint mockery of the idea will cure me of it. ;)
Recently we got a few vague reports of Russia abandoning positions in Kherson and near Izyum. But it doesn’t appear to be a general retreat as we’d be getting reports across the board of abandoned positions. Most speculation I’ve heard is that it is repositioning units to other parts of the front, most likely southern Ukraine. That rings hollow for me. The two units we’ve heard of is National Guard type unit manning checkpoints near Kherson which is more directly under Putin. The other is unknown units leaving a bridge location near Izyum. Now a high value unit leaving Kherson makes total sense as the bridges going down would trap it there. It’s a sign Kherson will fall soonish, but not necessarily of anything greater.
The potential Izyum retreat is much weirder. Russia is still attacking Bakhmut on the other side of the latest pincher attempt. Why would they give up the Izyum side but still attack the Bakhmut side? Retreating units from a forward area critical to resupply of units south of the river there doesn’t make much sense without a general retreat of the area. Even weirder is that it was reported as BOTH sides of the river. Retreating units to behind the river for defensive purposes is one thing. Abandoning a pontoon bridge and defensible river terrain is entirely different. This is a position not too far away from the railroad they recently connected from Lyman to Izyum. It would be incredibly dangerous to Russian supply if this report is true and Ukraine is able to occupy that land. I would tend to think the report is false.
But what if…. What if Russia wasn’t moving this unit to another place in Ukraine, but out of Ukraine?! Yes, it really is too much to hope for so don’t get your hopes up. But this hunch keeps bugging me so I’ll complete the thought to give you more stuff to mock me about. ;). In the north around Kyiv and the other northern cities, Russia appeared to be operating normally until all at once, there was an obvious retreat order. I say obvious, because multiple axis pulled back at once. It would be highly surprising if all those different salients all failed simultaneously. Rather some Russian General finally read the writing on the wall that their positions were unsustainable and withdrew what forces they could before a full collapse cost Russia even more. That potential collapse was due to a horrible logistical position. Ukrainian small unit raids on vulnerable supply convoys crippled Russian supply. Russia had not secured the whole countryside, but only lightly held a few critical roads. The convoys got picked apart and could not provide enough artillery shells for Russian units to function according to doctrine.
Well now, thanks to HIMARS, Russian supply depots are vaporizing in gigantic displays of “OMG I’m glad I’m nowhere near that.” And the Russian guns have gone silent (relative to what they were before). Russia can no longer effectively supply the artillery to forward units that they need. They are in a similar position to where they were right before they retreated from the north.
This time, I don’t think it will be a general retreat. Rather, Russian officers in Ukraine are all about to find out how well they are liked by higher command. The most important units will be withdrawn to either Crimea or all the way back to Russia. The remaining units are about to be sacrificed.
My hunch is that Putin will “Declare Victory”, and as a “sign of good will” withdraw the aforementioned forces (announced after they have done so) and let the two breakaway republics know that they are now on their own. Good luck, boys! Putin is rooting for you but no longer going to fight for you. The eventual defeat will be lamely placed on the breakaway republics fooling no one but gives the propagandists something to work with. I think Russia will attempt to hold Crimea and hope to shut down a possible Ukrainian offensive there through international pressure. That would at least be Putin’s plan.
That’s it. My hunch is we’re about to see this all ahead of the planned Ukrainian counter-offensive. We’ll still see fighting for a while because some of the partisans and cannon fodder will continue to fight for a while. But I do think we’re about to see the retreat of Russia’s best remaining troops effectively signaling Russia giving up any chance of winning.
Putin needs to do this as he needs some of these troops for internal security. As a paranoid megalomaniac he’ll want loyal, high quality troops back in Russia in case anyone tries to get frisky after 85% of the Russian army was committed to a war next door and thoroughly thrashed. Someone might have finally gotten through his skull that to stay in Ukraine risks losing the entire army there. While Putin doesn’t care about the soldiers, he does care about not destabilizing his own regime.
Russia is tapped out. I think this part will come suddenly and swiftly. There will still be a long slog for Ukraine clearing out the partisans, but the main Russian forces will leave quickly.
And to distract you all now from your mockery of me, I wanted to quickly change subjects to the solar fuel tower. (this paragraph has nothing to do with Ukraine). Such a facility paired with atmospheric carbon capture would mean a military could establish bases without a need for supply lines to bring in fuel. That is a tremendous thought. The fuel facility would still be a vulnerable target, but no more so than large fuel depots. They could even be semi-portable. I bring this up because military usage would help support the development. I know the US Air Force is already looking into aspects of this. But it would even affect the Army. The M1 Abrams won’t be battery powered anytime soon. Once they are developed enough, all sorts of remote civilian air bases could use these solar fuel generators helping aviation become carbon neutral.