For more info, here are our more detailed projections for Senate and Governor for the 2022 Midterms.
The Plan
As many Ohio Democrats as possible must request a Republican ballot on May 3rd and back State Senator Matt Dolan for Ohio Senate and incumbent Governor Mike DeWine in their GOP primary matchups. If you (or any Democrats, Independents, or moderate Republicans you know) live in Ohio and will be at least 18 years old on or before November 8, 2022, please help save Democracy by relaying this critical piece of advice to them. We must work together to save democracy. This is the smart thing to do. Here are four reasons why.
1. Ohio Hosts “Open Primaries”
Ohio hosts an Open Primary, meaning that voters will be asked which party’s ballot they want when they show up to vote on May 3rd.
Even if you are a registered Democrat, you will still be given the option to choose a Republican Ballot.
2. Dolan and DeWine are Better Than Other Republican Candidates
Matt Dolan and Mike DeWine are admittedly candidates that most Democrats would never consider supporting in general elections. Both are principled conservatives and hold policy positions well to the right of all Democrats.
Matt Dolan is a Republican State Senator from the Cleveland Suburbs. While his four rivals have gone to extreme lengths to suck up to former President Trump, begging for his endorsement, Dolan has focused on the people of Ohio. He’s the only Republican Senate candidate that admits President Biden fairly won the 2020 election and says Republicans need to move on from Trump’s cult of personality and turn their focus back to policy. Dolan has a spine and will govern as an individual rather than a partisan hack. Dolan’s competitors are incredibly unqualified. Trump endorsed JD Vance, a Wall Street-funded executive who admitted, “I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.” Vance bent over backward for Trump’s endorsement, even after floating the idea that Trump could be “America’s Hitler” in 2016. Former Treasurer Josh Mandel has consistently led polling and is the most dangerous out of any candidate. Mandel was Donald Trump before Donald Trump existed, utilizing racial dog whistles in his 2010 Treasurer campaign by falsely suggesting his opponent was Muslim in a campaign ad. Mandel has also voiced opposition to religious freedom on Twitter and unironically opposes the US Federal Reserve System. The election is exceptionally competitive, and Dolan could potentially win with enough Democratic support.
Mike DeWine succeeded John Kasich as the Governor of Ohio and has since continued Kasich’s brand of “compassionate conservatism.” DeWine handled the COVID-19 pandemic with swift action and competent leadership, unlike many Republican colleagues. DeWine’s challengers criticize his COVID-19 lockdown and his embrace of masking and vaccination. Leading challenger Jim Renacci has called DeWine “a Republican who acts like a Democrat” and referred to him as “Ohio’s Cuomo.” DeWine deserves to win the Republican nomination after embracing science and protecting the people of Ohio, certainly over the alternative options. Renacci opposes Biden’s COVID vaccine mandates and has even expressed skepticism about whether booster shots are needed for people to be fully vaccinated.
Matt Dolan will be an exceedingly reasonable GOP Senator if elected this November and is the only candidate to reject Trump's attempt to undermine democracy. Mike DeWine has proven to be a competent Governor in a Republican state, especially by embracing science over conspiracy throughout the COVID pandemic. Both of these men have spines and value the well-being of the people of Ohio over Donald Trump.
3. There are No Significant Primaries on the Democratic Ballot
Choosing to vote in Democratic Primaries on May 3rd is akin to throwing away your vote. The Democratic Senate Primary will be uncompetitive as we expect Representative Tim Ryan to clear the field. While we expect the Democratic Governor Primary to be competitive, John Cranley (D-Cinncinati) and Nan Whaley (D-Dayton) are extremely similar candidates. Both will face long odds against Mark DeWine in November. We rate this race as Likely Whaley, but candidates have struggled to draw distinctions throughout the primary. Only two Democratic House primaries are seriously contested, OH-11 and OH-13. In OH-11, incumbent Shontel Brown (D) faces challenger Nina Turner in a rematch of the August 2021 special election. These two candidates will vote in a nearly identical manner as congresswomen—both are staunch progressives. In OH-13 (a district opened by Tim Ryan’s retirement to run for Senate), we expect Emilia Sykes to defeat her opponents before a tough general election.
Choosing a Republican Ballot does NOT mean you will be missing any important decision-making on the Democratic side.
4. Republican Primary Winners are Near Locks to Win the General Election This Fall
Ohio is slowly slipping away from Democrats. Our latest models only give Democrats a 6% chance of winning the Senate race and a 7% chance of winning the Governorship in 2022. Former President Donald Trump (R) won Ohio by over 8% in 2020, and Republicans will benefit from a much more favorable national political environment in 2022.
It would take a tremendous upset for a Democrat to win a major statewide race in 2022.