Regrouping of Russian forces will likely see even more bombardment as they have greater numbers of reserves even if existing forces elsewhere in Russia may get moved to the Ukraine operational area. Air attacks continue as Ukraine continues to plead for air superiority assets from the US and NATO in a ranging list of needs. Russian forces leaving Chernobyl because of contamination is an unfortunate set of circumstances for soldiers likely not prepared for holding the area. Sea bombardment continues and the possibility of an attack on Odessa itself seems still in the cards. Peace talks without a ceasefire will return. Mariupol may finally capitulate as the war looks to last many more weeks.
If true, this is the first reported Ukrainian attack on Russian territory.
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian forces successfully conducted local counterattacks around Kyiv, towards Sumy, and in Kherson Oblast and will likely take further territory—particularly northwest and east of Kyiv—in the coming days.
- Russia is withdrawing elements of its damaged forces around Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy for redeployment to eastern Ukraine, but these units are unlikely to provide a decisive shift in Russian combat power.
- Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian assaults throughout Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, and Russian forces failed to take territory in the past 24 hours.
- Russian forces continue to steadily advance in Mariupol.
- Russia’s preplanned spring draft will begin on April 1 and does not appear abnormal from Russia’s typical conscription cycle. Newly drafted conscripts will not provide Russia with additional combat power for many months.
- The Kremlin is likely accelerating efforts to establish quasi-state entities to govern occupied Ukrainian territory.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian forces are engaged in four primary efforts at this time:
- Main effort—Kyiv (comprised of three subordinate supporting efforts);
- Supporting effort 1—Kharkiv;
- Supporting effort 1a—Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts;
- Supporting effort 2—Mariupol; and
- Supporting effort 3—Kherson and advances northward and westward.
Main effort—Kyiv axis: Russian operations on the Kyiv axis were aimed at encircling the city from the northwest, west, and east. It is unclear if forces on this axis have been given a new mission and, if so, what it might be.
Subordinate main effort along the west bank of the Dnipro
www.understandingwar.org/...
📍As we defend our country against 🇷🇺 aggression, information is one of the most powerful weapons at our disposal. We ask journalists from all nations to take care to avoid supporting the 🇷🇺 army by spreading inaccurate information. (2/16)
❌Myth: Ukraine’s successes on the ground will win the war.
✅Truth: Air superiority is the deciding factor in this war.
Air superiority has played a key role in all wars since WWII.
(3/16)
Dominance in the air allows a combatant to quickly and effectively attack the enemy’s ground troops, supply chains, and other essential military objects. Air superiority also provides powerful protection for one’s own ground and naval forces. (4/16)
❌Myth: Ukraine’s air force is equipped to effectively defend the country against Russia.
✅Truth: Russia’s air force is many times larger than Ukraine’s and has access to more advanced radar and missile technologies. (5/16)
Ukraine’s air force cannot close the sky over 🇺🇦 or gain air superiority due to a large discrepancy in equipment and technologies. (6/16)
Due to this major imbalance between the 🇷🇺 and 🇺🇦 air forces,
@KpsZSU
has been urgently requesting more modern fighter jets and air defense tools from its allies since the outset of the war. (7/16)
Over the past month, our air force has sustained losses; as equipment is destroyed by 🇷🇺 forces or damaged in action, our need only grows more urgent. (8/16)
❌Myth: Stingers will make up for the
@KpsZSU equipment shortfalls.
✅Truth: Successful defense against 🇷🇺 threats in the air (including cruise missiles, among others) requires fighter jets as well as medium- and long-range surface-based air defense systems. (9/16)
Stingers have a limited range and functionality; cannot compensate for a lack of modern fighter jets and medium- and long-range missile defense systems. Kamikaze drones are designed to destroy targets on the ground and also cannot defend against 🇷🇺 aircraft and missiles. (10/16)
❌Myth: The US and
@NATO are providing
#Ukraine with needed weapons. Allies are doing everything possible, short of direct involvement in the war.
✅Truth: To date, our allies have not answered our call for air defense support (fighter jets and SAM). (11/16)
We have not received the tools we need to defend our sky and achieve victory.
In the sky, the greatest need is for fighter jets - F-15s and F-16s of the fourth generation or higher would be sufficient; 🇺🇦 pilots can learn to fly these with just 2-3 weeks of training. (12/16)
Unlike Soviet-era MiG-29s, these jets are equipped with the advanced technologies used by the enemy, including advanced radars and modern missiles.
On the ground, air defense systems can prevent airstrikes and missile strikes. (13/16)
Russia has fired well over 1,000 ballistic and cruise missiles and dropped hundreds of tons of unguided bombs over the cities and towns of 🇺🇦. Most could have been intercepted if Ukrainian territory were covered by the required number of efficient air defense systems. (14/16)
Ukraine currently operates long-range S-300 (SA-10) missile systems and medium-range BUK-M1 missile systems. However, these are outdated, Soviet-era systems that are no match for Russian systems, such as the S-400 and others.
(15/16)
To effectively protect 🇺🇦, the optimal solution would be Patriot systems from the 🇺🇲 or the cheaper, more mobile NASAMS systems from 🇳🇴. In addition, 🇺🇦 could also use more Soviet-era S-300 and BUK-M1 systems, which are also currently effective against the enemy.
(16/16)
• • •
🛤️Every week, under the cover of darkness, residents in crucial junction towns steal onto the nearby tracks...
...and do whatever they can to stop Russian resupply trains from being able to pass through on the way to Ukraine
🔴Some place large logs on the railway sleepers and set fire to them.
Others torch the electric relay cabinets - a crucial piece of equipment that controls traffic and can take weeks to repair
These partisans choose their targets based on leaked intelligence from railway workers on their side.
➡️Information such as the schedule of a military train carrying Russian weapons, but disguised as an ordinary shipment of glass
❌If these rebels have anything to do with it, the train will not reach the front line in Ukraine any time soon
Over a dozen major acts of sabotage have been reported across the Belarusian railway network in recent weeks in what has been dubbed a “railway resistance”
⚠️In the most recent incident, traffic between two stations on the railway between Minsk and Ukraine’s Chernihiv was halted on Monday after two relay cabinets were burned down
The overall effect has been significant.
🇧🇾Belarus is a key launchpad for Russia’s invasion of the north of Ukraine and this is Moscow’s route into Kyiv’s northern suburbs as well as the city of Chernihiv in the north east
💬“Equipment gets destroyed. It takes hours, days, to put things back in operation.”
Read the full story 👇
• • •
Much of the attention has begun focusing on the build up of troops and investment in defense budgets in the face of Putin's aggression.
But what's getting lost in all of this is that we are dealing with a larger problem that this buildup will only worsen.
2/
Putin is absolutely a villain, but his military aggression is only one theater in a larger operation to overthrow democracy and the existing world order.
His attacks are built on corruption, radicalization, and have built up Right Wing movements around the world.
3/
So far Western leaders have had little in the way of solutions. They've relied on corporate sanctions and ballooning defense budgets.
Meanwhile, what goes unsolved, is the problem of widespread corruption, inequality, and a radicalizing frustration with power.
4/
Here in America, we're watching even more money being thrown into the maw of the military-industrial complex, ensuring even less prioritizing of human projects, including healthcare, housing, infrastructure.
This ensures that things are only going to get worse.
5/
Meanwhile, the buildup we are watching resembles past instances that preceded world wars. We are getting a preview of the types of conflicts that await us if this larger problem isn't addressed.
We're preparing for a worldwide tragedy.
6/
In these past wars, the orders that were seen as permanent and stable began to groan under pressures, and the military build up reached a point where the only solution was to fight it out.
This moment feels shockingly familiar in that regard.
7/
Already we are watching a preview of how future wars will be fought, including the usage of drones, cyber attacks, asymmetrical conflicts with disinformation.
There's a very real chance we'll see this as the opening chapter of a larger story.
8/
People desperately want to see Putin as the originator of the current crisis, but he has simply acted upon the opportunities present.
He's exploited the weaknesses of the neoliberal global order that has managed the world since the fall of the Soviet Union.
9/
Putin and the criminals surrounding him have taken advantage of the neoliberal hypercapitalist system, using their blood money to infect other countries and capitalize off their greed and lack of ethics or morality.
That poison has spread.
10/
This current unequal, exploitative system that has been exploited and corrupted, twisted and perverted, has been put in place by neoliberals obsessed with undermining democracy and the power of government.
We've reached the point where this system is beginning to collapse.
11/
In America and around the world, it has led to a total capture of our governmental systems by the wealthy and the politicians they buy and sell like so many commodities.
It has created a faux democratic state where the people are left to suffer in favor of the wealthy.
12/
Meanwhile, demagogue grifters have profited off the frustration with the neoliberal regime, fleecing supporters while introducing further antidemocratic ideas and continuing the unfettered spread of corruption.
13/
Because of the efforts of people like Donald Trump and the GOP, the base desires a white supremacist authoritarian alternative and would accept coups, the stealing of elections, and an illiberal regime that prioritizes their needs and punishes enemies
14
The normalizing of authoritarians and illiberal states was part and parcel of the larger project of handing complete and unchallenged control over to white, wealthy men.
The ideology has gained purchase and hold over politics around the world and is now a real alternative.
15/
Right Wing actors now favor the type of illberal regime run by people like Viktor Orban of Hungary, including fixed elections, weaponized history, laws targeting gay people and minorities, and a general veneer of democracy hiding authoritarianism.
16/
The defining ideology of the GOP and the Right as of this moment is National Conservatism, which mirrors itself on the illiberal authoritarianism practiced by Orban and Putin.
The legislation we're seeing, the appeals we're hearing, are in pursuit of a similar arrangement.
17/
Unless we manage to turn things around and build a more equal world that doesn't cater to exploitation and antidemocratic leanings, we're going to watch more and more extreme appeals finding purchase.
We're at a crossroads. And violence is beginning to be the only solution.
18/
The brutality we're seeing in Ukraine might very well be a precursor to a larger battle to come.
The ideological struggle waiting in the wings, the battle of liberal democracy versus illiberal authoritarianism, feels like the basis for a massive world struggle.
19/
Throwing more and more money at military solutions only makes a military conflict more likely.
We need to reverse course, invest in human projects, drive back exploitation and inequality and suffering. That's the only possible exit ramp here.
20/
And the great unspoken threat in all of this is global climate change. As land shrinks, resources disappear, and the neoliberal order fails over and over again, these conflicts are going to grow.
That's a certainty, unless we do something different.
21/
• • •