Ukrainian resistance continues to be "stiff and determined," a senior defense official said today at a Pentagon press briefing.
"Frankly, [the Ukrainians are] being very strategic about how they're defending and where they are putting their resources where they're most needed. They are doing it quickly. They are being adaptive and nimble," the official said, noting they are using hit-and-run tactics to great advantage.
The Defense Department has surmised that the Russian intelligence apparatus didn't fully factor in the degree to which Russian troops were going to be resisted, the official said.
Also, the DOD believes that the Russians haven't properly planned and executed their logistics and sustainment efforts, the official noted.
Not since World War II have Russian forces executed such a large-scale ground operation using combined arms of air, land and sea, so it’s understandable, in a way, that their planning and execution has faltered. Combined arms integration is difficult to execute in any scenario by any country, the official said.
Having said that, the official believed that the Russians are "going to work through those challenges, and we're beginning to see them do that."
Situational Report Update
Advanced elements of Russian forces are about 15 kilometers from the center of Kyiv, which would put them near the suburbs of Ukraine's capital, the official said.
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Since the start of the war, the Russians have launched more than 800 missiles of all varieties and sizes into Ukraine, the official said.
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The Russians are flying on average 200 sorties per day — not all into Ukrainian airspace since cruise missiles can be launched from those aircraft to hit targets in Ukraine from a great distance. "There's a general cautiousness on their part," the official said.
The Ukrainians have about 56 fighter jets available and are flying about five-to-10 sorties per day. The official noted that they don't really need to do more than that since the Russians have surface-to-air missiles that could knock those planes out of the sky. In addition, the Ukrainians have made great use of their drones, which can deliver munitions as well as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, the official said.
The United States and 14 allies continue to send defensive weapons systems into Ukraine, including small arms, anti-armor and air defense, the official said.
www.defense.gov/...
First, going to flag two stories I'm involved in that we published this morning.
The first explores the scenario under which Americans are going to join the Ukrainian war effort:
washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
On to the briefing. No major changes on battlefield. Mariupol and other major cities are getting pummeled. Fierce ground fighting in several areas, too.
On Thursday, the Pentagon indicated the long-stalled Russian ground convoy north of Kyiv had moved from about 12 miles outside the city center to nine miles away.
No change to that Friday, though there is some movement within the column.
New nugget from Pentagon: A senior U.S. defense official says today that some vehicles in the stalled Russian convoy north of Kyiv have been pulled off the road and into tree lines, an effort to disguise them and hide them from attack.
In light of questions around chemical-biological issues in Ukraine, senior U.S. defense official says the Pentagon has not sent protective gear for that to the Ukrainians. Also not aware of a request for it.
The senior U.S. defense official said Ukraine still has 56 operational jets in its arsenal and has been flying them just five to 10 hours per day. Points to that as one reason the Polish proposal to send Polish MiG-29 jets to Ukraine by way of the U.S. government was scuttled.
The Russian military, by comparison, has been flying about 200 sorties per day, senior U.S. defense official says. Some do not cross into Ukraine, he added, noting the Russians can fire aerial-mounted cruise missiles from planes at Ukraine from the Russian side of the border.
As of Friday, the Pentagon assesses that Russia has launched “nearly 810” missiles at Ukraine since invasion day. “The majority, nearly 400 of these missile strikes,” have been launched from Russian launchers in Ukraine.
Russia still has about 90 percent of the combat power it had arrayed at the Ukrainian border prior to invasion available to them for use, senior U.S. defense official says, indicating thousands of soldiers are dead, wounded or captured.
Ukraine has “a tad more” than 90 percent of its combat forces available, same U.S. defense official says. Important note: Its military is significantly smaller.
Pentagon is aware of Russian rhetoric that they want to recruit 16K foreign fighters from the Middle East to fight in Ukraine. Some efforts are being made in Syria, but it’s unclear if recruiting goes beyond Syria or if they are having success, senior U.S. defense official says.
No additional weapons systems to announce going to Ukraine. Arms deliveries to the Ukrainians continue, defense official says.
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@PentagonPresSec is expected to brief on the record shortly. It'll be streamed here. I'm not threading it. Need to write now and it's more widely available than the backgrounder.
Back to work.
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British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told Parliament on Wednesday that Russia had nearly twice the number of battalion tactical groups at its disposal than did Ukraine when the war began, and that air superiority tilted the balance even further toward an “overwhelming” Russian advantage. But Wallace said nearly all of Moscow’s objectives in Ukraine have remained unfulfilled.
The past two weeks have shown that just because Russia has the tools of war, that does not mean commanders know how to effectively use them.
François Heisbourg, a French political analyst who used to advise President Emmanuel Macron on national security, said the Russian advances have been strikingly limited.
“They’ve only taken one regional capital out of the 26 which were free of Russian influence before Feb. 25,” Heisbourg said.
And with a fight looming against dug-in Ukrainian troops in each of the cities that remain, it is unclear whether Russia has the capacity — or the will — to succeed.
“The logistics are pathetic. The soldiers are definitely not motivated,” he said. “It’s not what you would call a steady advance. There is actually very little terrain occupied.”
www.washingtonpost.com/...