I haven’t been feeling good most of today (Wednesday), so I hadn’t been following the news, just dropping my usual cogent analysis and razor-sharp witticisms in DK comments (that’s the way I tell it, anyway). Then I checked Marc Elias’ twitter feed this evening and saw this:
Wow! I hadn’t even realized this was coming up for a vote today. I don’t know who was absent—one from each party—but that’s not important right now. The point is, it passed and now it’s on the Senate.
(Before I move on to the next, part, this site has the text of the bill and this one has a breakdown of what’s in it, without the legalese.)
There are three reasons I’ve been waiting for this bill—first, because of the obvious implications for the 2022 elections. Republicans in 43 states have written over 250 anti-voter bills of all kinds—end early voting, strengthen ID requirements, end or complicate mail-in voting, all of it unnecessary. Arizona even wants to pass a law (and probably will, although Gov. Ducey may veto it) that says the legislature gets to decide who wins! (I’m pretty sure this violates the 14th Amendment, specifically the Equal Protection Clause, but IANAL.) If HR1 passes the Senate, a lot of those bills (or laws, if they’re passed quickly enough) become worthless—although I’m sure Republicans will file a lot of lawsuits, on account of it worked so well for them last time (snort!). The second reason is gerrymandering. HR1 will all but eliminate the partisan gerrymandering that Republicans embraced in 2010 like a president alone with a porn star.
However, the third, and biggest, reason I’ve been waiting on this legislation to hit the Senate is because of the filibuster, which has been getting a lot of attention lately. Kill it, fix it, it’s here to stay—opinions of what will and/or should happen vary widely. Manchin has opposed killing it, as have Feinstein and Sinema. Today, Amy Klobuchar, seen by some as the leader of the “moderate Democrats” (however that’s defined) came out against the filibuster, which is generally seen as a big deal, and it very might well be (I’m not going to argue against Blue Tuesday, who seems to know their stuff).
Regardless of everyone’s opinions, however, the incontrovertible fact is that the day of reckoning is at hand. McConnell doesn’t have the control over his caucus he had even two months ago, but he and the Republicans are going to use the filibuster in an effort to kill HR1. They have to, or they won’t win any elections; a lawyer for the AZ GOP admitted as much before the Supreme Court yesterday. So the question is—what will Democrats do in response? If HR1 doesn’t pass, the Republicans will be halfway home to destroying democracy as we know it. Will Democrats get fed up with Republican obstructionism? Will they fulfill the doomsayers’ predictions and fold like a cheap suit? What will Biden do? What back room deals will Schumer cut? I’m sure I’m missing a few factors….
I have been predicting (including earlier today) that it wouldn’t be until we saw a legislative “crisis”, a big piece of critically important legislation, before the filibuster issue got settled. And while I make no predictions as to what will happen, the time has come, the Walrus said, for every Democratic senator to choose a side. To paraphrase The Shawshank Redemption, “That crisis cometh, and that right soon.”
Let the games begin.
UPDATED to include a link to the CNN story featuring the Stacey Abrams interview I screenshotted, then completely spaced on linking to.