The message to the DNC and all progressives: Stop scaring Middle America
Within days before the 2016 election there were assertions that Hillary Clinton might sweep the board, or at least win in a significant landslide. There were several key factors that led to defeat. The largest, by far, was the number of voters (many of them Democrats who had supported Obama) who failed to go to cast ballots.
There is no rational reason why Trump’s approval rating now should be as high as 38 percent, yet it is. Some pollsters claim the problem in predicting the outcome of the 2016 election was pooling the data on a national level. That they claim failed to take into account the state by state contests. Thus, while Clinton won the popular vote by a significant margin, she lost the electoral college.
But this is not about history, it is about current events and how hard many progressives are working to get Trump re-elected. Obviously, that is not their intent, but certainly consistent with their actions. Facts may have their place, but what we have observed, emotions beat them almost every time. Perceptions matter and what people see on whatever media they get information from is unfiltered. The critical issue is Democrats must stop scaring Independents.
Of course, the base of either right or left matter and cannot be ignored. However, it is the middle where the election will be won or lost. With the pandemic, Trump has proven his inability to manage effectively during a crisis. While his base ignores the facts, many of the potential Independent voters have felt the impact and are prepared to support Biden. If the current status quo remains constant, that should be sufficient. It won’t.
What then, is the problem? A large segment of Middle America is frightened. I mean really, really frightened. Just check out gun purchases across the country. Sales are skyrocketing and many gun dealers cannot keep up with the demand. Of those people who already own guns, quite a few are stocking up ammunition. That is not happening in a vacuum. That fear is based on concerns that the recent riots may expand and they will be left to protect themselves. The talk about a civil war by militia members and right-wing media is a contributing factor. Even worse is that Trump also has raised the issue. Importantly, if faced with a choice between progressive concepts (or even right versus wrong) and personal security, a large segment will choose security. Trump is banking on that which is why he has played the “law and order” ticket and it will be a major theme throughout his reelection campaign.
Fear is Trump’s trump card and he is already playing it. That was clear from his Tulsa rally, the Mount Rushmore presentation and his Fourth of July address. He assumes that if he can create sufficient fear among his base, they will be more motivated to vote in November. Fear and “law and order” are complementary and a tried and true method for campaigning. It is imperative to stop providing him the ammunition to leverage that issue. However, every projectile thrown at police, especially water bottles, is a sure vote getter for Trump.
One significant problem is that many people watching events unfold on television can’t distinguish the difference between peaceful protestors and rioters. At times, some those individuals who initially were engaged in protesting civil rights violations, have transitioned into looters when stores became targets of opportunity in their area. In the recent riots we know that many of the thefts were initiated by organized gangs taking advantage of the police being distracted with crowd control.
Note that the composure of the events tends to change dramatically when darkness falls. It is known that gangs coordinate their criminal attacks on business using social media. They were also responsible for many of the fires set after a store was looted. That was often done to cover the traces of the original crime. These are extremely detrimental in two ways. First, both the owners and their customers lose. The business people, often local residents suffer damage and financial loss, while customers lose access to the goods and services they need. In addition, millions of people unassociated with the protests watch as looters are featured on their TV screens.
Here, television plays a key role. The old motto, “If it bleeds, it leads” holds sway. As networks compete for the most dramatic shots, viewers are bombarded with horrific images. While they are real, such reporting usually tells only part of the story. There are many reports of how some of the peaceful protestors blocked looters at numerous locations around the country. While true, that image is greatly overshadowed by stores on fire and the latter has far more emotional impact of the viewers.
There are several actions that can be taken that both allow for protests while minimizing potential damage to the campaign. The most obvious is to obey curfews and get as many off the streets as possible before dark. While emotion can be positive, there must be attempts to control it. Again, think of every item thrown towards police as losing 100 or more votes.
Another huge factor is the prevalence of progressive purists. They were probably instrumental in getting Trump elected in 2016 and could do so again in 2020. Specifically, too many of the Bernie Bros decided to sit out the election. Even worse, 12 percent of those voting for Sanders in the primaries, actually voted for Trump in the general election. It is clear that there are few, if any strategic thinkers either in the DNC or with organizers of protests. This may be a result of so many of the “Me Generation” who believe they are entitled to rapid results to complex issues. Strategically, it should be recognize that any slogan that is nuanced or needs further explanation will have negative consequences.
There is no doubt that reform in law enforcement is critical issue. How it is addressed is as important as the fundamentals. A common theme in current protests is “Defund the police.” That is a message that brings fear to many Independent voters. With riots breaking out, they want security not platitudes. The problem is the message lacks clarity. Any catch phrase that needs clarification should be dropped. KISS (keep it short and simple) should be an organizing principle for all messaging. Once the election is over, then return to the topic and address all of the nuances. Note that even most law enforcement agencies agree that they are tasked with responsibilities for which they are not adequately trained or equipped. That is especially true when it comes to mental health.
One of the unintended consequences of the “defund the police movement” has been a rise in violent crimes, including murders in some major metropolitan areas. Those reports come places as diverse as New York City and Chicago (always a hot spot) to Indianapolis and Las Vegas. The departments note that rather than adjusting to needed reforms, the personal “anti-police” rhetoric has been very demoralizing. In general, Middle America is very supportive of law enforcement. When they see stupid stuff, such as police officers being openly attacked with liquid, they become frightened and disheartened. That is yet another push towards Trump’s reelection.
The events with CHOP/CHAZ (Capitol Hill Organized Protest/Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone) in Seattle are excellent examples of what scares Middle America. While it may have made some participants feel good for a several days, it was doomed from the start. Far worse, it is now a nationwide symbol of how elected Democrats cannot govern effectively. The notion that any governmental body would relinquish control of a substantial segment of their community to a mob is unfathomable to most Americans. When the occupiers blocked access to law enforcement when shootings had occurred gave Trump a great boost. It also made a mockery of the “defund the police” efforts and severely damaged the hopes for even moderate police reform.
Don’t do stupid stuff that provides Trump and the GOP with more ammunition. A good example is the movement to change the name of John Wayne Airport. For the none-thinking purists, he made racist comments during his life and therefore should be erased. For Middle America, including many Independent voters, John Wayne remains an icon of Americana. He was larger than life and portrayed heroes on the Silver Screen. It was those heroes with whom most Americans identify him. For those old enough to remember, he is Marine Corps Sergeant John Stryker, in The Sands of Iwo Jima, he is R/Adm Rock Torrey leading invasions in the South Pacific in In Harm’s Way, he is one-eyed U.S. Marshall, Rooster Gogburn, in True Grit, he is Lt. Col. Ben Vandervoort jumping into Normandy in The Longest Day, he is COL Mike Kirby, a Special Forces commander in Vietnam in The Green Beret, and he is many, many more similar heroes. While Marion Morrison said inappropriate things, that is not who The Duke was in the minds of most Americans. After the election, if the people of Orange County want to change the name, so be it. Launching such an initiative during the national election is ludicrous.
Statues of Confederate generals have been standing for decades. Another few months won’t hurt but unauthorized destruction will. Rioters pulling down statues has been degrading the public trust and confidence in Democratic leadership. On the 4th of July weekend, protestors in Baltimore decided to pull down a statue of Christopher Columbus. While Chris was not a nice guy, the vast majority of Americans have no clue about his bad behavior. What they do know is a ragtag, uncontrolled mob in a Democratically run city ran amuck. The cost-benefit analysis in votes is highly in the negative column.
Determining who speaks for the Democratic Party is a critical decision. Since being elected to Congress in 2018, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, generally known as just AOC, has been a media darling. Vivacious and outspoken, they love her commentary on any issue and give her considerable air time. That may be great for the extreme left members of the Party, but she also scares the crap out of many others, including moderates and most Independents. That fear is strong enough to drive them into a Trump vote. As a close relative, and moderate thinker told me, “If Biden appoints her to anything, that’s it.” Ideological and naive she can do more damage to the campaign in a single interview than most could do in a month.
As an example, her position on abolishing ICE lacks a fundamental understanding of the organization’s responsibilities and the comprehension of the public’s attitude toward immigration (a basic Trump issue). While many people abhor the abuses that have come to light, abolishing the agency is a bridge too far. Similarly, she is a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, an organization with a stated objective of ending capitalism, the very foundation of our economic system. Unfairly, socialism is a dirty word and one widely misunderstood. However, Trump has been running against the term since his 2018 State of the Union address. My SWAG (scientific wild-ass guess) is that for every progressive vote AOC solidifies, Democrats lose a hundred to a thousand more.
We know that too many voters are not very smart and generally are unencumbers by reality. We know that lesser educated white men are Trump’s core constituency. They are buoyed by the uber-hypocritical Fundamentalist Christians. For them, facts matter little and critical thinking an anathema.
None of the foregoing is meant to address the progressive proposals to improve core issues that are evident in the current American ideological divide. There are serious discussions that need to take place on our changing social dynamics, including the role of law enforcement, the stewardship of the environment, providing health care for all, and forces driving increasing disparity in our economic system. All need to be addressed. The strategic issue is timing. As for the 2020 election, despite the optimism of the polls, the fat lady has yet to sing. For now, there is a requirement to play smart. And, that definitely includes not further frightening of Middle Americans.
In summary: To win Democrats must:
- Remember the lessons of 2016
- Expect the unexpected (something will happen)
- Stop taking actions that scare Middle Americans
- Stay away from all statues
- Don’t intentionally do stupid stuff that alienates Middle America
- Don’t use nuanced slogans that most people don’t clearly understand
- Wait until you have won before staking out extreme positions
- Vote