A new method of predicting the probable upcoming Covid-19 hot spots has been highlighted here, including this regularly updated map. As you can see above, Florida appears to be one of the hottest upcoming danger spots in the country, at least by this metric.
There is also a Florida-specific webpage for tracking the coronavirus cases in Florida. Currently the number of cases is at 2355, (updated since I added the graphic) with the largest number of cases concentrated in Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Hillsborough and Orange counties.
So far, the half-hearted measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus are being taken on a county-by-county basis, with Governor Ron Desantis (R) firmly resisting the idea of closing down all of Florida. He has issued an order that all travelers from New York, New Jersey and Connecticut be screened for Covid-19 and placed under a mandatory 14 day quarantine after they arrive. Unfortunately, even the most careful screening of sick people coming into Florida will now do very little to contain the outbreak, because the virus is already spreading rapidly on its own.
He has also recommended that people over the age of 65, and those with underlying health conditions should shelter in place. That’s a fairly obvious recommendation, and at least it’s going in the right direction, but it’s a little like sending out a couple of foot-soldiers with bows and arrows, when what’s needed is an army of soldiers with the best weapons we can give them.
In a televised state briefing on Mar 24th, DeSantis had this to say, when asked about doing a statewide lockdown in Florida:
Remember the CDC has not said do a statewide lockdown. And I also look at some of these other states that have done it and I see massive noncompliance. I’m not even sure how effective it is.
I mean, if you’re doing a big block party in California during a lockdown, wouldn’t it be better just go to work? I mean, you’re probably going to transmit the virus less in the office than you are with a bunch of drunk idiots in a block party.
This is pure gaslighting. None of his statements are based on facts, at least not on an honest acceptance of the facts as they are. Twisting facts out of recognition, and then making statements based on those twisted versions, is not the same thing. Let’s take the statements one at a time:
Remember the CDC has not said do a statewide lockdown.
The purpose of the CDC is to provide expertise and recommendations. They don’t make decisions about which state should do lockdowns and when they should do them, because that’s simply not their job. State-wide decisions regarding what should be done in each of the states belong to the Governors of those states. In the case of Florida, that decision unfortunately falls to Ron DeSantis.
And I also look at some of these other states that have done it and I see massive noncompliance.
This argument is comparable to saying: “I’m not going to make a law requiring that people wear seat belts when they drive, because I’ve seen a lot of people breaking such laws in other states.” Laws about wearing seat belts exist because everyone knows (or ought to know) that seat belts save lives. Similarly, everyone ought to know by now that social distancing saves lives. Getting 100% compliance is not the issue, although of course greater compliance with such laws will save more lives.
I mean, if you’re doing a big block party in California during a lockdown, wouldn’t it be better just go to work? I mean, you’re probably going to transmit the virus less in the office than you are with a bunch of drunk idiots in a block party.
Here DeSantis throws out a word-image tapestry, custom-crafted for a state where most everyone just watched a lot of college kids “party” on their beaches in a very irresponsible way.
California has been on lock down, and there have been a few stories about block parties there. In one of these parties in Oakland, some responsible people each came out into their front yards, playing their own music and dancing. A professional cello player serenaded her neighbors; others played some song they liked on speakers. In another, also in Oakland, people came out with their lawn chairs and sat in a circle, each 6 feet apart, and talked with each other. One fellow actually brought his own 6 foot pole, to better gauge and honor the distances.
Describing these responsible people as “drunk idiots” would probably garner a “Four Pinocchio” ranking on the Washington Post’s scale of complete misrepresentations. So now that he’s dismissed the California lockdown as if it was nothing but a big party, he suggests that people instead just keep going to work, since by his logic the virus would keep spreading either way. Which is another big whopper of a lie, and probably worth another four Pinocchios.
I’m not even sure how effective it is.
I’ve saved this one for last because this is what it comes down to. Do lockdowns really work?
DeSantis isn’t sure because he doesn’t want to be sure. He’s doing his utmost to cast doubt on the whole idea, because he doesn’t want to do a lockdown, because he wants a choice that will get rid of the virus but keep the economy going at the same time. That would be nice, but that option just isn’t available today. And each day that DeSantis delays in taking aggressive action, the worse the situation gets, and the more people will die because of his needless delays.
In extreme medical situations, people can end up with gangrene, where the only choices are to either cut off a few toes or else risk the infection spreading, and perhaps eventually killing the patient. A doctor might wish for a better option, and hesitate. But the longer a doctor delays in doing the right thing, the worse the condition gets. By not promptly amputating the toes, perhaps the whole foot will be lost. By not promptly amputating the foot, perhaps half the leg will be lost.
This is not a game that DeSantis, or any other governor, can win.
Whether DeSantis wants to admit it or not, lockdowns work. One very good example of this is contrasting the states of Kentucky and Tennessee, which is more thoroughly discussed here. The governor of Kentucky chose a very aggressive approach to fighting the virus, while the Governor of Tennessee has not yet really gotten aggressive about the battle. Conveniently, the two states got started at virtually the same time, making the comparison a lot easier.
Here the contrasting results, detailed with care by Stephanie Jolly, illustrate very well what a difference doing the right thing makes. Until March 11th, Kentucky had more cases than Tennessee, but as of today, Tennessee has over four times as many cases as Kentucky, with 916 rather than 197.
In this game of delays and wishes, there are many millions of lives at stake. There are almost 16 million people living in Florida, and more than 3.5 million of those, or about 22%, are people aged 60 or over, and at the highest risk for dying if they end up getting infected with Covid-19.
Everyone of these people’s lives matter a great deal, to themselves, to their loved ones, and to this great family of humanity we’re all a part of. All of these people played a part in the Florida economy, and can do so again if they survive. Any attempt to save the economy, which does not include saving the people which are the foundation of that economy, is nothing but nonsensical fantasy.
This is not a partisan issue.
In November there will be a very consequential election. There are many Republicans living in Florida, because older people, and especially older white people, tend to be predominantly Republican. If DeSantis wants his Republican party to do well in November, he should act in ways that will keep those voters alive. I disagree with many of those people ideologically, just like I disagree with DeSantis, but I’d prefer to see them alive and well. We are all brothers and sisters in this great family of mankind. I don’t want to see any of my family members die the tragic, lonely kind of isolated death that would befall them through the coronavirus.
Waiting makes things worse.
Governor DeSantis, and all other Governors playing the same waiting game of wishful thinking and delays, owes it to their constituents to take action, quickly and aggressively. Wishful thinking will not change the truth. We have few weapons against this virus. We should use them all, and aggressively, until the danger is wiped out. Aggressive use of social distancing probably means locking down the state, or at least all the infected counties. Testing is another tool; that should be used relentlessly and strategically, statewide.
Help put pressure on DeSantis to act.
There is a Shutdown Florida petition to Governor DeSantis, which currently has over 275,000 signatures. You don’t have to be a resident of Florida to sign it — I’m not, and I had no problems signing it! For the sake of the people of Florida, I hope you’ll consider doing so also.