Like many people here I was horrified by that Iowa polls showing the mango mussolini ahead by 7 points. Never mind that Iowa is not, and has not been, a piece of Biden’s path to 270. Of course it would be great to have it and we do need the senate seat.
The reaction on Twitter was unhinged. It is as if there was an old saying “As Iowa goes, so goes the country”. Some people inferred that that poll showed some trump strength in the Midwest. Never mind that trump won IA by 10 points in 2016, but MI and WI by less than 1% each.
In any case, Dave Wasserman has been making the case that back in 2016, district level polls were flashing warning signs for Hillary. Now the warning signs are flashing again, but this time for trump. Point in case: Today Emerson (rated A- by 538) released a poll showing Biden with a 7 point lead in Wisconsin, which is great. But the really good news in this case is that they also show Biden and trump tied at 48% in Vigo County in Indiana. Ho hum you say. Well, that county has voted for the eventual winner of the election since 1888, with the exception of 1952 and 1908. Also, trump won this county by 14 points in 2016.
The relevant point here is that trump is really under performing compared to 2016 at the district level. The district level polls led Wasserman to believe that trump had the momentum going into the election 4 years ago, and now hey show that momentum on Biden’s side.
So, if you’re feeling like freaking out because on one poll, I think it’s fair to use another poll to feel a bit better.
After all, we need to survive the next few days.
Peace and GOTV!
emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/...