This post was written by David Nir and Stephen Wolf.
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, which would reform the Electoral College by having states award their electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote, has a difficult but plausible path to enactment in time for the 2024 presidential election.
In a welcome development, the compact took a further step down that path on Wednesday, when Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham signed a law adding New Mexico’s five electoral votes to the collective. As a result, 14 states (plus the District of Columbia) representing 189 electoral votes are now members. However, the compact will only take effect once states representing a majority of 270 electoral votes join.
Because Republicans have been steadfast in their opposition to the principle of majority rule (at least when it doesn't suit them), Democrats will have to close that 81-vote gap themselves—barring an election in which they win the Electoral College and lose the popular vote. To do so, they’ll need to pass the compact in the states where they’re currently in charge, then win control of a number of other states and pass the compact there.
Here are the states that could make that happen (with each state’s current number of electoral votes listed in parentheses):
- Maine (4), Nevada (6), Oregon (7): Democrats control the governorship and the legislature in all three states, and legislation to join the compact is currently working its way through the legislative process.
- Virginia (13): Democrats control the governorship. They must flip the state Senate and state House this year. If they do not, they must hold the governorship in 2021 and flip the state House in 2021 or 2023 and flip the state Senate in 2023.
- New Hampshire (4): Democrats must flip the governorship and hold the state Senate and state House in 2020 or 2022.
- Minnesota (10): Democrats control the governorship. They must flip the state Senate and hold the state House in 2020.
- North Carolina (15): Democrats must hold the governorship in 2020 and flip the state Senate and state House in 2020 or 2022.
- Pennsylvania (20): Democrats must flip the state Senate and state House in 2020. If they do not, they must hold the governorship and flip the state Senate and state House in 2022.
- Arizona (11): Democrats must flip the state Senate and state House in 2020 or 2022 and flip the governorship in 2022.
- Michigan (16): Democrats must flip the state House in 2020 or 2022 and hold the governorship and flip the state Senate in 2022.
Collectively, these states currently have a total of 295 electoral votes, well over the 270 threshold, so it won’t be necessary to win all of these in order to bring the compact into force. However, some current and prospective members may lose electoral votes following congressional reapportionment in 2020, so compact supporters will want a cushion.
Many of the necessary victories will be quite difficult, but that should serve as a reminder to progressives that we have to remain intently focused on winning governorships and state legislatures in order to finally usher in a true national popular vote for president.