Monmouth's new poll of Virginia's 10th Congressional District finds gives very bad news to GOP Rep. Barbara Comstock. Democratic nominee Jennifer Wexton holds a wide 49-39 lead over Comstock among what Monmouth refers to as "potential voters," which includes anyone who has voted at least once since 2010 or has registered since 2016. Both Monmouth's other two models (which we explain here) give Wexton an almost identical margin of victory.
This is the first poll we've seen of this race for this seat, which went from 50-49 Romney to 52-42 Clinton, in months. The only other general election poll that’s been released at all was a March DCCC poll that gave Wexton, who had not yet won the Democratic primary, a smaller 46-43 edge. Perhaps the best news for Comstock is that neither party is acting like they think she's doomed at all. The Democratic groups House Majority PAC and the DCCC have reserved a total of $2.6 million in fall TV time in the Washington media market, while the NRCC has invested a hefty $6.4 million here.