Michigan Legislative Project #7: State Senate Races (with Cash on Hand figures)
Well, as promised, I’m doing a rundown on the truly “fast & the furious” lead up to the State Senate cut-off, with many a fine (and some I can’t comment on as I don’t know) candidates putting their names in. So, without further adieu, Here. We. Go:
State House District 20 (Wayne County – Eastern Canton Township, Plymouth Township, city of Plymouth, Northville)
Incumbent – Jeff Noble (R-Plymouth, running for re-election)
Teacher Matt Koleszar (Campaign site: https://www.mattformichigan.org/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MattforMichigan )
UPDATE! Logistics Manager and Army Veteran Gary Schlack has dropped out of the race for the Michigan State Representative district 20 (his campaign wasn’t going anywhere and his wife was expecting a child based on the sonogram photo at his campaign facebook). Koleszar is a teacher and very involved with his Michigan Education Association local and is also receiving the backing of State Representative Kristy Pagan (who represents the rest of Canton Township). I’ve heard Koleszar speak once and remember liking him (though this is when my family situation first started to occur so I was a little tired). I like Matt and think he has a chance as Noble was elected by a relatively unimpressive 53.5-46.5. I believe I’ve seen Schlack endorse Koleszar and based on the Facebook message, quite enthusiastically too.
State Senate District 1 (A large portion of Detroit, what’s south of 94, and Downriver such as Wyandotte, Woodhaven, Grosse Ille and I believe Trenton and Ecorse also)
Incumbent: Coleman Young II (D, not eligible for reelection)
Dems Running: State Representative (District 6) Stephanie Chang website: http://www.stephaniechang.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/stephaniechangforrep/
University Employee & National Guard Officer Nick Rivera. Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NickRiveraForDistrict1/ (no candidate page I can find).
State Representative (District 2) Bettie Cook Scott (webpage: https://bettiecookscott.com/ )
Republicans Running: Pauline Montie (?)
Not a huge amount of change from last time. There’s a contested primary between two incumbent state representatives (and a third guy who is deeply unlikely to have a chance). The only change is that there is an actual Republican who put their hat in (however unlikely they are to win). For the primary? Personally? I’m in favor of Stephanie Chang over Cook Scott, but that’s just me. The republican is a long shot but I’m in favor of whatever Dem running against them.
Michigan State Senate District 3 (Detroit, Dearborn, portion of Dearborn Heights).
Incumbent: Morris Hood III (term-limited)
Announced candidates:
Wayne County Commission Chairman/former State Representative Gary Woronchak (Website: https://www.gary4senate.com/ )
State Representative Sylvia Santana (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/votesylviasantana/ )
Tywuan Burrel (?)
Republicans Running: Kathy Stecker (R – Dearborn)
The race has more or less officially taken shape with Wayne County Commission Chair Gary Wronchak running against State Representative Sylvia Santana. This district was, more or less, designed to elect a Detroit Democratic candidate to the seat and, as there is only one Detroit candidate running, it’s extremely likely to be Santana (who, as a State Rep, represents Detroit) rather than Wronchak (who represents Dearborn). There had been a small chance for Wronchak provided that another Detroit Democrat had decided to run but that doesn’t appear likely at this point. Kathy Stecker appears to be a retiree, and is there for the express purpose of having a name on the ballot, and maybe winning if we forget to vote, ignore the race, or a scandal breaks out at the right time.
State Senate District #6 (City of Taylor, City of Romulus, Van Buren Township, Sumpter Township, Huron Township, Brownstown Township, Westland, City of Wayne)
Incumbent: Hoon-Young Hopgood (D, not eligible to run for re-election)
Dems Running: State Representative Robert Kosowski (term-limited, his district covers Wayne & Westland), (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Robert-Kosowski-for-Michigan-State-Senate-237369480085885/ )
State Representative Erika Geiss (Not Term-limited: her district covers Taylor, Romulus, and the tiny portion of Van Buren Township that isn’t in Kristy Pagan’s district), (Website: http://electgeiss.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/electgeiss/ )
Republicans Running: Brenda Jones (R-Taylor)
No change for the Dem side, Kosowski is still nominally the front-runner but Geiss is running hard, and I personally hope she wins the nomination. The Dem is favored, though the Republicans are pulling the “run a candidate with a famous Dem name” gambit, in running someone with the name Brenda Jones (a different Brenda Jones is President of the Detroit City Council, but that isn’t this one, I can’t find anything on this one). Dem favored seat with the primary jockeying being the prime thing.
State Senate District #7 (Canton, Plymouth Township, City of Livonia, City of Plymouth, City & Township of Northville, City of Livonia, portion of city of Wayne)
Incumbent: Patrick Colbeck (R, not eligible to run again, running for Governor)
Democrats Running: Psychiatrist/CEO of APEX Behavioral Health-Dearborn Ghulam Qadir (http://drqadir.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/GhulamQadirMD/ ), Teacher/Small Business Owner/Casting Agent Dayna Polehanki (http://daynaforsenate.com), Facebook: (https://www.facebook.com/DaynaForSenate/) and IMDB page (http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0688954/, Twitter: https://twitter.com/daynaforsenate?lang=en ).
Republicans Running: State Representative Laura Cox (R-Livonia)
No Change: The Democratic side hasn’t changed as Dr. Qadir and Dayna Polehanki are both running active enough campaigns, both being backed by different area politicians. State Representative Laura Cox (wife of odious former Attorney General Mike Cox) has formally declared for the office, and that likely precludes any other significant Republicans from entering. Both Democrats are good candidates and both have some good people behind them (Polehanki has State Representative Kristy Pagan, Qadir has former Canton Township Trustee Dr. Syed Taj and former State Board of Education President John Austin).
Update: I will say that, in terms of events, I see much more of Polehanki than I have of Qadir, in terms of the Canton/Plymouth area (which seems to have more Dems). Qadir has been fundraising like crazy (raised $98,000+ in 2017 with $92,340 cash on hand), but Polehanki’s last report indicated a narrowing of the gap (she has $35,664 cash on hand, and raised most of that in November & December as she raised only $15,000 total in September & October).
State Senate District 10 (Sterling Heights, Clinton Township, and Macomb Township)
Incumbent: Tory Rocca (R-Sterling Heights, term limited)
Democratic Candidate running State Representative (and former Firefighter) Henry Yanez (Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/FriendsOfHenryYanez/ , Campaign Webiste: https://votehenryyanez.com/ )
Republicans Running: former defense contractor Michael Shallal, Dr. Steve Naumovski, and automotive engineer Joseph Bogdan, Financial Represenative Mike MacDonald
Potential Republicans Running: Macomb County Commissioner/former State Representative Leon Drolet.
This district will be a nice test as to Trump’s appeal as we went from winning Sterling Heights and Clinton Township (and coming close in Macomb) to getting shelled in Sterling Heights and narrowly losing Clinton Township (Sterling Heights had Republicans picking up a lot of votes but most of the change in Clinton Township was a shit ton of third party voting). Yanez has won three elections in Sterling Heights so he should have some appeal. Currently Yanez has a very good $65,150 in Cash on Hand compared to $30,900 for Shallal and no reports from Bogdan (who has received the “under $1,000” waiver) or Dr. Naumovski. Currently one in which we have the advantage. Update: The only change is that “Dr” Mike Macdonald (he has a doctorate from the online University of Phoenix in health administration and works as a Financial Advisor) hopped in as a fourth candidate in the Republican primary. This is the only change.
Cash on Hand: Yanez: $66, 458 total, Cash on Hand: $65,153.
Republicans: Shallal is the only one who reported, he had $35,915 total with Cash on Hand of $30,886 (Bogdan received a waiver and Naumovski hasn’t reported yet). Good news on the money front for Team Dem.
State Senate District 12 (portions of Southfield township, Bloomfield township, the city of Pontiac, and the city of Auburn Hills, the entirety of Independence, Orion, Oxford, Addison and Oakland Townships, the Village of Clarkston, and apparently Lake Orion even though I don’t see it on the district map)
Incumbent: Jim Marleau (R-Lake Orion, term limited)
Republicans running: State Representative Jim Tedder (R-Clarkston), State Representative Mike McCready (R-Bloomfield)
Democrats running: IT Business Owner Rosemary Bayer (D-Beverly Hills, Campaign Site: http://rosemarybayerforsenate.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/RosemaryforMISenate/ ), Jeremy Ross Haines (no campaign website, also his committee has not filed a report yet).
No Update, move along if you’ve seen it before: TO start with this is a pretty blatantly gerrymandered district that split ups portions of about 4 different municipalities and fuses them to a block of mostly republican townships. That having been said Bayer is a good candidate with a sound IT background (former team leader for Sun Microsystems, she’s founded her own IT company ardentCause L3C which is a small IT company serving the non-profit sector.
Fundraising: Bayer: $20,015 total, Cash on Hand $16,055. Republicans: Tedder $73,285 total but $36,164 on Hand, McCready got in in January so no formal amounts for Senate but his State Representative Committee had $42,680 in Cash on Hand.
State Senate District 13 (Oakland County: Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, Royal Oak, Rochester, Rochester Hills, Troy, Berkley, and Clawson)
Incumbent: Marty Knollenberg (R-Troy, Running for reelection) a former State Representative & Oakland County Commissioner
Democrats Running: Writer & Creative Director Mallory McMorrow (https://www.mcmorrowformichigan.com/) Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/mcmorrowformichigan/
No Update, move along if you’ve already seen: Repeated rundown on the character of the district: This *should* be a very winnable seat, especially since Hillary won in Troy, Birmingham, Bloomfield Hills, and Royal Oak in 2016). However, the double shot of Rochester & Rochester Hills is still Republican and they supply a lot of votes, plus Knollenberg is strong in Troy.
Having said that? McMorrow has been running a very busy campaign *and* she found the time to moderate a panel at the Women’s Conference (https://www.facebook.com/mcmorrowformichigan/videos/527940534221173/ ). Also, her events aren’t just the standard political draws at someone’s house, she’s had a tour of Detroit Bike’s facilities and she’s having an event at a local craft brewery. They’re thinking outside the box on this campaign and I really kinda like it (wish I’d have time to get to one of the events but *sigh* no dice). She’s still got a good chance. Also, huge self-back patting event: Her campaign Facebook linked to the first Michigan Legislative Project and mentioned it (can’t seem to link to an individual Facebook post but its halfway into October). It appears that the creativity has been helping as McMorrow has a respectable Cash on Hand total of $34,573 which is compared to Knollenberg’s $54,459 which is actually a closer ratio than I expected.
State Senate District 15 (Novi, Milford, Wixom, South Lyon, West Bloomfield Township, the Oakland County portion of Northville, Walled Lake, and Commerce Townships)
Incumbent Mike Krowall (R-Term Limited)
Democrat Running: Nurse Julia Pulver (Campaign Website: https://www.juliapulver.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/VotePulver/ )
Republicans Running: former State Representative Hugh Crawford (Novi) and State Representative Jim Runestad (White Lake)
An Oakland County district, and one of the ones I found out about through the PAA report, but Pulver is running an active campaign and Hillary did pick-up Novi in 2016 so maybe parts are heading our way. There are two tough candidates running (though that might be it as fellow Republican State Representative Klint Kesto is running for the 11th Congressional District) though so definitely an uphill climb. Also, a bit of almost ridiculous offensiveness occurred in the Republican primary for a quick second as there was a third candidate in their primary, Mike Saari, who referred to the judge in the Larry Nassar case as a “feminazi” in a social media post and he was more or less forced to drop out.
Only Change: Right winger Mike Saari got into the race in-between me writing about it last and February 2018. However, after facebook posts critizing the judge in the Nasser hearing (the doctor for the Michigan State University gymnastics team/USA Gymnastics in trouble for multiple sexual assaults) as a “femninazi” dropped out in February. Otherwise, all other names are the same (and nothing of value was lost).
Fundraising: Julia Pulver - $3,639 total, Cash on Hand - $778.47. Republicans: Hugh Crawford: $46,360 total, Cash on Hand $17,994. Jim Runestad - $134,563 total, Cash on Hand $151,175. Quite honestly, Pulver will need money to have any hope of winning this seat from Runestad, but the district’s set-up still isn’t terrible for us.
UPDATE
State Senate District 17 (Monroe County and Lenawee County)
Incumbent: Dale Zorn (R-Ida, likely running for re-election)
Candidates: Former State Representative/Chairman of the Monroe Democratic Party/former Non-Profit Executive Bill Lavoy
Potential candidates: former State Representative (2005-2010)/former AT&T Michigan Governmental Affairs Executive Director (2011-2013) Kathy Angerer, former State Representative & 2014 nominee Douglas Spade (who’s Facebook page Douglas Spade for State Senate is still being updated)
Well, ask and you shall receive. I was disappointed the last time this subject came up but former State Representative Bill Lavoy (currently Chairman of the Monroe County Democratic Party) has put his name on the ballot and formed a candidate committee. Bill just got on the Secretary of State webpage (and thus doesn’t have a webpage), but he was referenced at the Michigan Democratic Party convention last week as a candidate, so it appears he is in it. Bill Lavoy represented the City of Monroe and the North-Central and Northeast of the county in the State House for 2 terms. His wife Michelle is running for the Michigan 17th State Representative district (which is his old State House district). I’m seeing some renewed energy from the Monroe County Democrats (County Commission candidates, Michelle Lavoy and Ernie Whiteside for the State House elections, and just a renewed push from it) and here’s hoping both Lavoy’s win (as I grew up in Monroe County and remember good Dems like Jim Berryman, Herb Kehrl, Kate Elbi, and Kathy Angerer representing this area).
State Senate District 20 (Kalamazoo County)
Incumbent: Margaret O’Brien (R-Portage, Running for Re-election)
Democratic Candidate Running: former State Representative Sean McCann (Website: https://seanamccann.com/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/seanamccann?lang=en )
No Update: This one I missed last issue as the race was decided by only about 59 votes. However, we have a big Announcement as McCann (said loser by 59 votes) announced his candidacy last month http://www.mlive.com/news/kalamazoo/index.ssf/2017/11/sean_mccann_announces_bid_for.html . Given McCann’s closeness last time this should be given serious attention.
Fundraising: Considering McCann didn’t get in until November he’s gone Broadway in terms of fundraising, raising $30,229 in less than 2 months and having Cash on Hand of $28,983. However, according to the Official Reports O’Brien has raised $210,264 this election cycle so far with a Cash on Hand Total of $147,343. McCann’s done a sound job of making up for lost time but he’s still at a disadvantage.
*New Race*
Michigan State Senate District 21 (southwestern most district in Michigan: Berrien, Cass, St. Joseph and a small portion of Van Buren counties, including the cities of: Three Rivers, Buchanan, Sturgis, and Benton Harbor)
Incumbent: John Proos (R – Term-Limited)
Democratic Candidate running: Hagar Township Clerk & RESA Instuctional Technology Officer (for Berrien County Schools) Ian Haight (Website: http://ianhaightforsenate.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ianhaightforsenate/ )
Republicans Running: State Representative (79th district) Kim Lasata, State Representative (78th District) Dave Pagel
This is a brand new race as Ian Haight has been elected to two terms as Hagar Township Clerk while serving professionally in the Berrien County Schools and is running in an open seat. The combination of an open seat, an elected Township official (who has some name recognition in at least part of the district), his affiliation with public education which is getting a push), and a competitive Republican primary leaves us with a chance…albeit a small one. But Benton Harbor has been jerked around by the financial manager laws and this area has just enough presence of people who *might* be swung that we have a chance (of note: the evangelical Christian I know who’s heaped scorn on Trump *used* to live in this district).
*No Change*
State Senate District 22 (Essentially all of Livingston County and Western Washtenaw County, primarily everything west of Ann Arbor and the city of Saline)
Incumbent: Joe Hune (R-Hamburg, term-limited)
Democratic candidate running: Adam Dreher, Assistant Prosecuting Attorney Iona County/past Army member (Campaign Site: https://adamdreher.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Adam4Senate/ )
Republican Running: State Representative Lana Theis (R-Brighton), IT Analyst & former State House Intern Joseph Marinaro
And here we get into districts that could go to us in a wave. Washtenaw County as a whole is one of the better organized districts that I’ve heard discussed, so Western Washtenaw should be good for us, the problem is that Livingston County is one of the more Republican larger counties out there (and is home to Howell, which used to be the base for the Michigan KKK). Dreher is probably one of the only candidates who might be competitive here as a Prosecutor who has also served in the army. There is a primary for the Republicans in the most technical sense of the term as Marinaro jumped in in January but given the profile of both and the money I will be well and truly shoecked if Theis doesn’t get the nominate. This is not one of prime pick-up targets but Dreher does seem like a not bad candidate.
Fundraising: Dreher: $10,420 total, Cash on Hand $7,832. Republicans: Theis $80,058 total, Cash on Hand $51,174.
State Senate District 24 (Clinton County, Eaton County, Shiawasse County, parts of Ingham County – Leroy, Locke, Wheatfield, and Williamston Townships and the city of Williamston)
Incumbent: Rick Jones (Term-Limited)
Democratic Candidate Filed: Kelly Rossman – McKinney, retired CEO of Truscott Rossman (Campaign Website: https://www.kellyforstatesenate.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/KellyForStateSenate/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/rossmanmckinney?lang=en )
Republicans running: State Representative Tom Barrett, State Representative Brett Roberts
This wasn’t a seat that was necessarily on anyone’s radar, as this cuts out the most Dem portions of Ingham County and includes right-wing Clinton and Shiawasse Counties. Then a funny thing happened on the way to a “well, whatever” race: Kelly Rossman-McKinney raised $179,755 in 2017 (with $151,000 on hand). In terms of Michigan State Senate races this is a damn near jaw dropping amount (generally, if you have around $50,000 CoH you are doing pretty good). As a basis for comparison Barrett has approx $57,000 CoH while Roberts has…$7,000. While I know at least one somewhat prominent Dem who felt that this wasn’t winnable regardless of the money spent…let’s combine that with effort and see what happens.
*New Race*
District 25 (Huron, Sanilac, St. Clair Counties and a portion of Macomb County which contains New Baltimore)
Incumbent: Phil Pavlov (R – Term –Limited)
Democratic Candidate Running: St. Clair County Community College Trustee, Substitute Teacher, and retired entreprenuer Debbie Bourgois
Republican Running: Michigan State Representative (81st district) Dan Lauwers
We have another Michigan State Senate district with a local Dem official running against a Republican elected state Representative. This is also not a good district (containing the East-most portion of the Thumb of Michigan and the northern most portion of Macomb county), but it *is* an open seat, and Bourgois does have some name recognition.
State Senate District 29 (city of Grand Rapids, City of East Grand Rapids, Ada Township, Cascade Township, Caledonia Township, Bowne Township, City/Township of Lowell)
Incumbent: Dave Hildenbrand (R-Lowell, not eligible to run for re-election)
Dems Running: State Representative for the 76th district Winnie Brinks (Campaign Site: https://www.winniebrinks.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/WinnieBrinksforSenate/ , Twitter: https://twitter.com/WinnieBrinks?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor )
Republicans Running: State Representative Chris Afendoulis (District 73)
The expected happened and Afendoulis has entered the race. It is highly unlikely anyone else significant gets in at this point, so here’s your general election. For what it’s worth Grand Rapids is the mainstay of the district and Brinks has held one seat and the other main one is far more amendable to Dem candidates. Its going to be a shoot-out cash wise as Brinks has $119,246 on hand to Afendoulis’s $220,338 (again $50,000 would be respectable at this point). Brinks is behind but Michigan isn’t the most expensive place to campaign for State Leg in the world.
State Senate District 31 (It’s too awkard to describe but this: http://www.statesenatormikegreen.com/district/ , notable areas include Bay County and Lapeer County).
Incumbent: Mike Green (R – Term Limited)
Republican Running: former State Representative Kevin Daley (R-Lum), State Representative Gary Glenn
Democratic candidate running: Bay County Clerk (2004-Present) Cynthia Luczak (Campaign website: http://cynthialuczak.com/ , Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/LuczakforStateSenate/ )
This is a mess of a district, but Bay can and has voted for Democratic candidates before and Luczak has won 4 elections there so she has a good base to start with. Daley served as State Representative about a decade prior but lost a primary in the 00s. This is one of the races (along with the 10th, the 22nd, the 29th, and the 38th ) which could determine whether we can pick-up the State Senate in time for redistricting so definitely one worth working on and Luczak has the basis for being a good candidate. Luczak had a relatively disappointing fundraising from Mid-October through Year-End of $9,721.47. This especially stands out as Daley has $53,500 in Cash on Hand and Glenn has $91,700. Fundraising wise this race will need to get on the ball to keep pace.
*New Race*
Michigan State Senate District 34 (Newaygo, Oceana, and Muskegon Counties including the cities of White Cloud, White Hall, Muskegon, Hart, North Muskegon, and Muskegon Heights)
Incumbent: Geoff Hansen (R – Term-Limited)
Democratic Candidate Running: Non-Profit Managing Director & Consultant Poppy Sias – Hernandez (Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/votepoppy/ )
Republican Leader: State Representative Holly Hugher (91st district), former State Representative Joe Bumstead.
This isn’t the perfect district, but one district in Muskegon is already Dem and the 91st (with either Tanya Cabela or Andry O’Reilly) is one of our top pick-up opportunities. And Poppy Sias-Hernandez isn’t a bad candidate, and spoke on gun control prior to the March for Your Lives (here’s her speaking at a Lansing gun control rally prior to March for Your Lives https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T-dAobCdDfQ )
State Senate District 38 (The following counties: Gogebic, Iron, Dickinson, Ontonagon, Houghton, Baraga, Marquette, Alger, Delta, Schoolcraft, and Menominee essentially 90% of the UP)
Incumbent: Tom Casperson (R-Term Limited)
Republicans Running: former State Representative Ed McBroom (R-Norway) and local businessman Mike Carey (from Iron Mountain)
Democratic Candidate Running: State Representative Scott Dianda (D-Calmut) who represented the more Republican Western Upper Pennisula (the stuff West of Marquette county) which should give him a leg up. Campaign website: http://www.scottdianda.com/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/scottdianda/
This is, outside of the 10th, the 21st, and maybe the 29th the most likely pick-up in the state senate (picking up these races brings us half-way to a split in the State Senate, with Oakland County seats in the 7th, 13th, and 14th bringing up to the brink). Dianda represenats the more Republican portion of the UP seats as a Dem and, further, has a very healthy $80,000 Cash on Hand amount for Year End (By comparison Ed McGroom has $10,700 and Mike Carey has $9,700. Dianda is a relatively conservative State Representative according to the one person I spoke to, but one in the hand…
Overall
Okay, now is the time for you to think that I may be well and truly out there. Why? Because no one is talking about the potential of the Dems picking up the State Senate this year but we do have a shot, though a very long-one. Currently the State Senate sits at 27 Republicans and 11 Democrats, which means we need 8 pick-ups in the case of us winning the Governorship (hey LG Nominee…prepare to sit and break a shit-ton of ties…). Currently our best pick-up options are 10, 21, and 38 (Yanez, McCann and Dianda) based on character of the district, candidate, closeness last time, and the fact that Dianda’s district is split between areas favorable to Dems and areas he’s represented. That get’s us to 14 seats with a needed pick-up of 5 seats.
After this we have very good pick-up opportunities in the open seats of the 7th, 29th, 12th, and the 24th. As well as shots at the contested re-elections in the 13th and the 17th district (and possible longshots at the 31st and 25th districts with local officials running in open seats). This is by no means a “lead pipe lock” but its worth noting that we have 9 possible pick-up opportunities when we need 8 seats to take control. This is unique in that we haven’t had this opportunity prior and I truly hope we can take advantage of it.