Will the Republican Party ever embrace LGBT rights in the way the Democratic Party has?
It seems a crazy question to ask given the current state of affairs.
While on the one hand the Democratic Party is virtually unanimous in its support for the LGBT community, with every 2016 contender, even the relatively conservative Jim Webb, supporting marriage equality. Republicans seem to have yet to get the memo that even a plurality of its voters now support the freedom to marry. From the trans-phobic bathroom bills being produced by Republican-led state legislatures across the country to the multitude of homophobic policies rolled out by the Trump administration, its clear Republicans have a long, long way to go.
It does seem however, that slowly, Republicans may be being pulled into the mainstream on LGBT rights. Three current Republican senators (Susan Collins, Rob Portman and Lisa Murkowski) have voiced their support for marriage equality and a number of candidates are starting to run on pro-LGBT platforms, particularly in blue states.
My hope is that eventually both parties will be united on these issues but in the short term I expect this unity to appear predominantly in blue states before eventually spreading across the nation.
In this blog post I will investigate the opinions on marriage equality of the leading Republican candidates who are running in some of the more safely Democratic senate races across the country this year.
The list is ordered by PVI, from most to least Democratic. I have also included incumbents senators Human Rights Campaign scores, which measures how pro-LGBT equality the incumbent senators are.
Hawaii & Vermont — Sen. Mazie Hirono/Sen. Bernie Sanders — D+18/D+15 — HRC Scores: 100%
The last Republican to run for Senate in Hawaii got crushed by a devastating 52-point margin in 2016, while Bernie dispatched his Republican opponent by a 46-point margin when his name was last on the ballot in Vermont, meaning that no Republicans have yet to file to take on the incumbents. The filing deadlines are June 5th and May 31st.
California — Sen. Dianne Feinstein — D+12 — HRC Score: 100%
Republicans look set to be locked out of the general election in November on account of California’s “Top-Two” primary system which will most likely see the incumbent face progressive challenger Kevin de León if no notable Republican decides to mount a campaign. The filing deadline is March 9th.
Maryland — Sen. Ben Cardin — D+12 — HRC Score: 100%
During the 2016 Senate campaign, Chrys Kefalis made headlines as an openly gay man running for the Republican nomination. While he was unsuccessful in winning the nomination, he did end up featuring on a list of the top LGBT Republicans in the nation.
This year former CIA officer Sam Faddis appears to be the front-runner for the Republican nomination. He has not taken a position on marriage equality or responded to questions on the matter.
Massachusetts — Sen. Elizabeth Warren — D+12 — HRC Score: 100%
If the Republican party is ever going to embrace LGBT rights, it’ll probably start in a state like Massachusetts, which was the first state to legalise same-sex marriage in 2004. The states Republican governor, Charlie Baker, is a supporter of marriage equality who has marched in gay pride events and whose younger brother, who is gay, starred in a campaign advert in 2014 talking about the support Baker gave him when he came out.
In the race for the Senate, wealthy businessman John Kingston looks set to be the Republican frontrunner after loaning his campaign $3 million during Q3. While his stance on LGBT rights is unclear, it has been reported that he’s been an investor in several Christian organisations, which doesn’t usually lend itself to supporting the LGBT community.
On the other hand, his main opponent in the Republican primary looks set to be State Rep. Geoff Diehl, who stated that he thinks marriage equality is “fine” at his August announcement.
Beth Lindstrom, who was Scott Brown’s former campaign manager during his upset 2010 special election victory, appears to be running in third place in the Republican primary. She also has stated that she “supports the law from 2004 to legalize same-sex marriage in the state”.
New York — Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand — D+12 — HRC Score: 100%
Her opponent in 2012, Wendy Long, was a vocal opponent of marriage equality, who equated it with people marrying their dogs and parents. After losing her 2012 campaign by 46-points, Wendy tried again in 2016 against Chuck Schumer and ended up losing by a similar 43-point margin, becoming the first person in New York history to lose against both sitting senators.
So far it seems no notable Republican has so far filed to challenge the incumbent. The filing deadline is April 12th.
Rhode Island — Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse — D+10 — HRC Score: 100%
The Republican frontrunner seems to be State Rep. Bobby Nardolillo who stated in 2016 his support for marriage equality and opposition to North Carolina’s so-called “bathroom bill”. He reiterated his support for same-sex marriage during his senate announcement speech in May.
His main opponent, former judge Bob Flanders, however appeared to take a more traditional Republican stance, begrudgingly accepting the result of the Supreme Court ruling:
“The US Supreme Court has ruled that same sex marriage is a constitutionally protected right under the equal protection clause of the US Constitution. So, that is now the law and there is virtually no chance of a constitutional amendment that would be required to overturn that ruling. So, while I am a big supporter of traditional marriage and families, I must respect and tolerate the fact that gay marriage and non-traditional life styles and sexual orientations are now legal and discrimination against them would be illegal.”
Washington — Sen. Maria Cantwell — D+7 — HRC Score: 100%
No Republican has so far filed to challenge the incumbent. The filing deadline is May 18th.
New Jersey — Sen. Bob Menendez — D+7 — HRC Score: 100%
New Jersey had a crowded Republican primary during its last senate race in 2014 that ended with the eventual nominee, Jeff Bell, edging his three opponents 29-26-25-19. He went on to lose to Cory Booker by 14-points in the general election.
Both Jeff Bell and the 2014 GOP primary runner-up, Rich Pezzullo have filed to run again in 2018.
Bell was vocal regarding his opposition to same-sex marriage in 2014 and was supported by the homophobic, christian conservative, Public Advocate of the United States who sent out a ridiculous flyer featuring two men kissing in an “attack” on the incumbent Sen. Booker while praising Bell’s opposition to an anti-discrimination bill that Booker supported.
His main opponent however, Richard Pezzullo, announced way back during the 2014 race that he supported marriage equality and, this time around, he appears to be the clear front runner for the Republican nomination.
Connecticut — Sen. Chris Murphy — D+6 — HRC Score: 100%
During the 2016 campaign, Connecticut Republicans seemed to have finally made the transition to supporting equality orientated candidates. Their Senate nominee, State Rep. Dan Carter, supported same-sex marriage and their nominee for CT-5 (The only remotely competitive congressional district in the state) was openly gay.
The front-runner for the Republican nomination this year appears to be Dominic Rapini who said in a statement:
“As a conservative I answer all questions through the prism of personal responsibility and the pursuit of happiness. That said, nobody, especially the government, should get in our way - including telling us whom we should love.”
In other remarks he also expressed his support for the Equality Act which, if passed, would amend the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to include protections that ban discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, and sex in the areas of employment, housing, public accommodations, public education, federal funding, credit, and the jury system.
His only notable primary opponent, Matthew Cory, also said in a statement that he too supported marriage equality suggesting that Connecticut Republicans are increasingly unified on this issue.
Delaware — Sen. Tom Carper — D+6 — HRC Score: 100%
The last time anybody paid any attention to a Delaware senate race was in 2010 when Christine “I’m not a witch” O’Donnell was running, and during Tom Carper’s last re-election campaign in 2012 he trounced his GOP opponent by a 37-point margin.
So far into the 2018 campaign the only declared GOP candidate is businessman Chuck Boyce. On his Facebook page, Chuck stated:
“I am, and always will be, an ally of the LGBT community”
New Mexico — Sen. Martin Heinrich — D+3 — HRC Score: 100%
Sen. Martin Heinrich only won his first term by six points in 2012. Despite this relatively close race, only one Republican, business Mick Rick, has so far stepped into the 2018 campaign. In an emailed statement he declared that:
“I believe in equal civil rights, period. I believe it is time our government got out of the marriage business altogether and it is time our government return to the stance of our founders that our faith, beliefs and relationships are private.”
So there you have it, while clearly not universal, it does seem that Republicans running in blue states have begun to make the transition that polling has been showing is inevitable and supporting equality. While it’s unlikely we’ll have Republicans embracing LGBT rights running in the south anytime soon, given the shift in Republican sentiment in the blue states, it seems only a matter of time before Republicans in swing-states will get on board.
Meanwhile, for those Republicans who haven’t got on board, LGBT campaign advocacy groups such as the Human Rights Campaign are going to be working harder then ever before to end their careers in these upcoming mid-terms...