Welcome to part 3 of the 2017 Election Preview, this one focusing on special elections. Thanks to those who read and commented on Parts 1 and 2. This part 3 is focusing on special elections. As a bit of an introduction, it should be a surprise to few Daily Kos readers that Democrats have been outpacing Republicans in special elections throughout the time following the 2016 election, which is a major reversal when compared to special elections occurring after the 2013 election. It also puts the kibosh on the debunked theory that “Democrats don’t vote in off year elections”. So with that as a preface, let’s take a look at states that will be holding Special Elections for legislative (and one congressional) seats on November 7, 2017. I will list every race but only talk about the important ones and as always, these are in order of poll closing times.
Georgia (7:00 EST)
seat |
vacated by |
2016 prez. margin |
2012 prez. margin |
sd 6 |
GOP |
Clinton +15 |
No Data |
sd 39 |
Dem |
Clinton +73 |
No Data |
hd 4 |
GOP |
Trump +30 |
No Data |
hd 26 |
GOP |
Trump +60 |
No Data |
hd 42 |
Dem |
Clinton +42 |
No Data |
hd 60 |
Dem |
Clinton +84 |
No Data |
hd 89 |
Dem |
Clinton +84 |
No Data |
hd 117 |
GOP |
Trump +3 |
No Data |
hd 119 |
GOP |
Trump +7 |
No Data |
Unfortunately, we don’t have data on the 2012 margins, but for most of those, it wouldn’t change much. Each of the first 7 listed should remain in the hands of the party who vacated them. However it is those last two, HD 117 and HD 119 that get interesting. They are the very type of “soft Trump” seats that are key Democratic targets if the party wants to increase its power in Georgia at all. Located near Athens-Clarke County, where the University of Georgia is located, these seats are the types of areas that Democrats will need to be successful in if they want to turn the state blue statewide in the future and will be worth watching.
South Carolina (7:00 EST)
district |
vacated by |
2016 prez. margin |
2012 prez. margin |
hD 113 |
Dem |
HRC +39 |
Obama +48 |
This is a deep, deep blue seat and it will stay this way. Nothing to see here.
New Hampshire (7:00 EST)*
district |
vacated by |
2016 prez. margin |
2012 prez. margin |
hd hillsborough 15 |
GOP |
Trump +10 |
Romney +3 |
hd sullivan 1 |
Dem |
Clinton +22 |
Obama +20 |
The latter of these two is a safe blue seat. The former is a tad more interesting. It’s one of many seats in New Hampshire that swung towards Trump but is still soft enough, and New Hampshire is swingy enough, that it could very easily swing back towards Democrats. If they intend to flip the State House or State Senate in 2018, HD Hillsborough 15 is a good place to start.
Missouri (8:00 EST)
district |
vacated by |
2016 prez. margin |
2012 prez. margin |
sd 8 |
GOP |
Trump +21 |
Romney +19 |
hd 23 |
Dem |
Clinton +80 |
Obama +88 |
HD 151 |
GOP |
Trump +69 |
Romney +49 |
All three of these seats are solidly partisan and are likely to remain that way. SD 8 is the only one with much of a shot to flip, but it’s not on the top list of seats I’m watching. Next.
Mississippi (8:00 EST)
district |
vacated by |
2016 prez. margin |
2012 prez. margin |
HD 38 |
Dem |
No Data |
No Data |
HD 54 |
GOP |
No Data |
No Data |
We don’t have presidential level data on these seats but using past election results, where both previous incumbents were unopposed in the most recent elections, I expect these seats to remain with the parties that vacated them.
Michigan (8:00 EST)
District |
vacated by |
2016 prez. margin |
2012 prez. margin |
HD 1 |
Dem |
Clinton +52 |
Obama +53 |
hd 109 |
Dem |
Trump +4 |
Obama +8 |
Despite Clinton winning just 43 of the 110 Michigan house districts (thanks, Gerrymandering), Democrats won 47 seats last fall, leaving them a realistic 9 seats away from a majority in the 2018 elections. But that requires flipping a handful of seats and protecting some vulnerable ones, like HD 109. Democrats have to win HD 109 if they want to flip this chamber of government next fall. HD 1 is a safely Democratic, Wayne County seat, so HD 109 is certainly the one to watch.
Maine (8:00 EST)
district |
vacated by |
2016 prez. margin |
2012 prez. margin |
HD 56 |
GOP |
Trump +22 |
Obama +4 |
This is another Obama-Trump seat that is the type of seat that is so crucial to Democrats winning the US House of Representatives and numerous state legislatures. Democrats hold a plurality of seats in the Maine House of Representatives and are the governing party in that chamber, but if they are trying to get a majority they need to pick up 3 seats in in 2017-2018. This is an opportunity being in a district that Obama won. It also can be a litmus test for Trump fatigue.
Massachusetts (8:00 EST)
district |
vacated by |
2016 prez. margin |
2012 prez. margin |
HD Berkshire 1 |
Dem |
Clinton +36 |
Obama +54 |
HD Essex 3 |
Dem |
Clinton +15 |
Obama +18 |
These are two seats that will remain blue, so moving on.
New York (9:00 EST)
district |
vacated by |
2016 prez. margin |
2012 prez. margin |
SD 26 |
Dem |
Clinton +73 |
Obama +65 |
HD 27 |
Dem |
Clinton +34 |
Obama +33 |
HD 71 |
Dem |
Clinton +87 |
Obama +90 |
These are three deep blue seats, with the two house districts not even having a GOP challenger. Easy wins for Democrats.
Utah (10:00 EST)
district |
vacated by |
2016 prez. margin |
2012 prez. margin |
UT-03 |
GOP |
Trump +24 |
Romney +58 |
Jason Chaffetz’s timid exit from the US House of Representatives in favor of Fox News creates the only congressional level special election on November 7, 2017. This is a very, very red district that Romney won with ease in 2012. However, the disdain for Trump by Mormons and the presence of Mormon conservative outsider Evan McMullin caused Trump to win this district with just 47% of the vote. That doesn’t however mean there is much of an opening and the GOP has drafted a very good candidate in Mayor of Provo John Curtis who is facing a random physician (the Democratic nominee). The GOP will hold this seat but it wouldn’t shock me if it was closer than many expect.
Washington (11:00 EST)
district |
vacated by |
2016 prez. margin |
2012 prez. margin |
sd 7 |
GOP |
Trump +48 |
Romney +25 |
sd 31 |
GOP |
Trump +8 |
Romney +2 |
sd 37 |
Dem |
Clinton +79 |
Obama +75 |
sd 45 |
GOP |
Clinton +36 |
Obama +19 |
sd 48 |
Dem |
Clinton +43 |
Obama +26 |
hd 7 |
GOP |
Trump +34 |
Romney +25 |
hd 31 |
GOP |
Trump +8 |
Romney +2 |
hd 48 |
Dem |
Clinton +43 |
Obama +26 |
Well this is a lot, and it also contains the most important special election in the 2017 Election: Washington’s SD 45. But first off, SD 7 and HD 7 will be easy holds for the GOP, while SD 37, SD 48, and HD 48 will be easily holds for the Democrats. The remaining three are where it gets interesting. Republicans hold a 25-24 edge in the State Senate (without vacancies), thanks to a Democrat who caucuses with the GOP. However, the special elections in SD 31 and SD 45 give Democrats the opportunity to flip the chamber and complete the blue trifecta in Washington. The most obvious target of the two is SD 45, where Democrats have romped at the presidential level in each of the last two elections. In 2014, incumbent Andy Hill (R) was re-elected with just under 52% of the vote, signaling that this is a close district at the state level with a history of ticket splitting. However, last year he passed away from lung cancer, opening up the seat and giving Democrats a golden opportunity. The race is interesting as it features two Asian-American candidates facing off. The Democrat Manka Dhingra took over 50% in the jungle primary, but this type of primary does not allow a majority to win it outright. Her opponent took 41% and polls have shown a consistent split of about that margin, 51-41. However, of course, special election polls for state senate districts are not exactly terrific. But, it is widely believed that Dhingra is the favorite. In HD 31, Democrats have a chance to add to their slim 50-48 majority, and so it is these three races, but especially SD 45, that will be what to watch late Tuesday night.
Conclusion: SD-45 in Washington is obviously the special election everyone will be watching, but all of these races matter. The sum of them can teach us lessons about the national environment as a whole and whether or not these special elections follow in the mold of those that have happened already this year will be instructive as we look at 2018 and beyond.