Currently Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) is soundly beating former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by a 15.3 percent margin, or 51.3 — 36.1 with 89% of precincts reporting. That margin will very likely increase, possibly to 15.5 points or more, as it has all day long once the early votes (which favored Clinton by a small margin) were counted.
One would think that such a win, where Sanders garnered what will likely be a grand total of +5 — 8 (or so) delegates over would not be controversial. One would think that those on the Clinton side would be content with their candidate’s still enormous lead in the delegate count (likely +280 or so after the final West Virginia delegate allocation).
One would be wrong:
Very few minorities there, unlike most other Southern states. Let’s get real — this was a racist vote. She won in 2008 in W. Virginia because she was running against a black guy; now she lost because she is closely associated with same black guy.
Is that claim true? Or even somewhat true? Does it have any elements of truth in it whatsoever?
Not really.
Let’s look at the exit polls to see what was on the voter’s minds in the West Virginia Democratic Primary:
Was it “black people”? No. Was it “the blacks”? No. Was it the “mexicans”? No. Was it Obama? No. Was it anything racially motivated? No. It was the economy (also known as that thing certain members of our government almost destroyed in 2008) by an overwhelming margin.
What kind of overwhelming margin?
A 46 percentage point margin over the second closest topic (which was healthcare) and a 55 point margin over terrorism.
Wow. How worried were West Virginia voters about the economy to warrant this enormous percentage?
Very worried. 63% of voters answered that they were about as scared of the economy as some of us are by a good horror movie. Another 24% answered that they were somewhat worried about the economy. In total:
Around 87% of West Virginia voters were VERY worried, or somewhat worried about the economy. Not black people. Not latino people. Not LGBT people. The economy.
Why? Well, an article like this, whose title says “Is there any hope for West Virginia” might give you some idea of their economic woes. Another one, published March 23, 2016 whose title “West Virginia budget gap widens, economy worsens” is not any more optimistic than the last and it gives a pretty vivid picture of exactly why West Virginians might be quite concerned about their state economy:
In the past three years, Tomblin has cut 20 percent of the state’s general revenue budget.
Before concluding its session, the House requested state agencies to consider how to cut a further 6.5 percent from their budgets. Among the consequences would be the elimination of an estimated 350 jobs in the college and university system, the closure of at least four community college campuses; and the layoff of 166 workers at state hospitals.
Social infrastructure is being sacrificed to the benefit of big business,
and particularly the coal industry. Although Tomblin signed legislation last month dropping a 56-cent-per-ton coal tax at a cost of $51.5 million to the state, the coal industry is lobbying for further cuts to the general severance tax rate, from 5 percent to a mere 2 percent.
...
The economic crisis is deepening across the state. Unemployment for February stood at 6.5 percent, and after the holiday temporary hiring, the jobless rate rose in every one of the state’s 55 counties. The state’s labor force participation rate, hovering below 50 percent, is the lowest in the country.
WorkForce West Virginia data indicate that in the past month:
• Alpha Natural Resources laid off 1,109 coal miners in Boone, McDowell and Raleigh counties.
• Blackhawk Mining laid off 226 miners in Kanawha, Logan and Mingo counties.
• Arch Coal issued pink slips to 140 in Webster County.
• Walter Energy cut 120 mining jobs in Fayette and Nicholas counties.
• Carter Roag Coal Company laid off 173 Randolph County miners.
• Rail company CSX announced the closure of its Huntington Division, affecting 121 employees.
• Southwestern Energy Company laid off 97 in Lewis County.
• Chemical and fuel firm Thomas Logistics axed 58 positions in Morgantown.
• Oil industry company Baker Hughes laid off 90 employees in Harrison County.
• Wal-Mart closed its McDowell County location, leaving 140 without jobs.
Several counties register official unemployment rates in the double digits. According to WorkForce West Virginia, Calhoun County reported a jobless rate of 16.9 percent. McDowell and Mingo counties have unemployment rates of more than 14 percent.
Property values in the southern coalfield counties are spiraling downward. Boone County lost 17 percent of its total property value in the past two years, according to the state auditor’s office. Mingo County has lost 15 percent.
Public school district budgets have suffered drastic declines in funding. In Boone County, the closure of coal mines has resulted in the loss of $4.3 million in school funding in the last year and the loss of students whose parents must leave in search of work. The county district has announced the closure of schools and the elimination of 80 positions at the end of the school year.
In McDowell County, enrollment has declined 17.4 percent over the past decade. The county school district has shed 10 to 20 positions each year. This year, it is cutting 19 teachers and 16 service staff.
Now, with the West Virginia Democratic voters faced with a economic populist and a “confessed moderate” that pledged to shut down a lot of coal plants in the state, who do you think they voted for?
63% of voters who came from Coal Worker’s households voted for Sanders, by a 33 point margin over Clinton.
Meanwhile, 56% of Economy voters supported Sanders versus 39% for Clinton.
In fact, Sanders took McDowell County (the place where school enrollment has dropped by over 17 percent) by a 25.5 point margin over Clinton (55.5 — 30).
In fact, Sanders took Randolph County (where 173 coal miners were recently laid off) by a 20 point margin, 52 — 32.
In fact, Sanders took Mingo County (where property values plummeted by 15 percent) by a 27 point margin, 48 — 21.
In fact, Sanders won every single county in the state, and almost all of them by 10 percentage points or more.
Is is to hard to imagine that maybe Sanders wins not because of racists, because of sexists, because of extremists, or because of some other cock and bull story, but because some people actually think he is the best candidate to be Commander in Chief of the United States? Because they think he cares more about voters than some friends in high places? Because they think he is a candidate they can trust? Look at one exit poll after another. Sanders is again, and again, and again the candidate who is viewed as the most honest and trustworthy, the candidate who shares the values or cares the most about the voters, and the best on trade, or on the economy.
While race plays a role in every election, Sanders’ win in West Virginia is not because of racism or even because of racism to a remotely large degree. It is because of, as Paul Krugman likes to say, “the economy stupid”.
#FeelTheBern