November marked the 110th consecutive month of U.S. job growth, according to the Labor Department. That’s the longest stretch since the government first set standards for gathering such statistics eight decades ago. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that 266,000 seasonally adjusted new nonfarm jobs were created last month, which was far above the consensus of analysts surveyed by Marketwatch earlier this week that the gain would be 189,000. Of the gain, 254,000 new jobs were created in the private sector, with 12,000 in government employment. It was the best November showing since 2014 and the strongest 2019 report since January.
The bureau revised its tally for October from 128,000 to 156,000 and for September from 180,000 to 193,000.
The headline employment rate—known at the BLS as U3—fell slightly to 3.5%. The bureau also calculates other rates, one of which includes a portion of underemployment as well as unemployment and is known as U6, which fell to 6.9%.
Once again average wages advanced slightly. Year over year, the increase has been 3.1% against the current inflation rate of 1.76%. In other words, average workers are treading water financially.
The BLS depends on the Current Employment Survey of 142,000 business establishments at 689,000 individual worksites to determine how many jobs were created each month and derives the unemployment rate from the Current Population Survey of 60,000 households. The final day of each survey falls around the 12th of each month, which means this month’s data measure jobs gained in the first part of November and the last part of October.
Elise Gould at the Economic Policy Institute writes:
On its face, the pace of job growth in 2019 hasn’t been particularly troubling. The economy continues to move in the right direction—though at a slightly slower pace than the last couple of years—soaking up sidelined workers as the unemployment rate remains at historically low levels. But, when you factor in the preliminary benchmark revisions—which showed a half million fewer jobs created between April 2018 and March 2019—the data indicate weaker employment growth this year than originally reported. The final benchmark revisions won’t be released until the January 2020 employment numbers are released in February, but the preliminary release is troubling. And large downward revisions are sometimes associated with early signs of a recession because it means the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)’s model for predicting the births and deaths of firms is off, often accompanied by a turning point in the economy. These revisions don’t tell us a recession is necessary on the immediate horizon, but they are certainly something to keep in mind as the year winds down.
Other statistics from the November report:
The civilian workforce rose by 40,000 in November after rising by 325,000 in October and 117,000 in September.
The labor force participation rate fell to 63.2% in November. The employment-population ratio remained the same at 61.0% for the third straight month.
Unemployment rates differ by race and sex. (November percentages in bold; October percentages in [brackets and italics].) Adult men: 3.2% [3.2%]; Adult women: 3.2% [3.2%]; Whites: 3.2% [3.2%] ; Blacks: 5.5% [5.4%]; Asians: 2.6% [2.9%]; Hispanics: 4.2% [4.1%]; American Indians: Not counted monthly.
• Average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose in November by 7 cents an hour to $23.83.
• Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls in November rose 7 cents an hour to $28.29.
• Average work week for all employees on nonfarm payroll remained unchanged at 34.4 hours in November.
• The manufacturing work week in November rose 0.1 hour to 40.5 hours.
October Job Gains and Losses for selected categories:
- Education and health services: 74,000
° Health care & social assistance: 60,200
- Professional and business services: 38,000
- Manufacturing: 54,000
- Temporary help services: 4,800
- Transportation & warehousing: 15,500
- Financial activities: 13,000
- Leisure & hospitality: 45,000
- Information: 13,000
- Retail trade: 2,000
- Construction: 1,000
- Mining and Logging: -7,000
- Government at all levels: 12,000
Here's what the seasonally adjusted job growth numbers have looked like in the previous decade compared with this November’s gain of 266,000 jobs:
November 2009: 12,000
November 2010: 123,000
November 2011: 132,000
November 2012: 158,000
November 2013: 267,000
November 2014: 286,000
November 2015: 235,000
November 2016: 170,000
November 2017: 220,000
November 2018: 196,000