The third legislative chamber I will analyze is the Texas State House. Currently the balance in the TX State House is 83R-67D, meaning that Democrats need a net gain of 9 seats for an outright majority in the chamber, and that the chamber will be tied (presumably w/ a power sharing agreement) if the Democrats have a net gain of 8 seats. In the chart below, seats that I have classified as “Safe” for the incumbent party are excluded. Republican held seats are in bold, Democrat held seats are underlined. In general, I assume that the incumbents are running.
It might be worth pointing out that TX State House District (HD) 90, located in Tarrant County, was recently struck down on the grounds of racial gerrymandering. This district is a “Safe D” district, but it shares a boundary with several competitive districts that are mentioned here. I take this into consideration in my overall assessment of the chamber, but not for individual seats. (More on this at the end of the article)
One thing to note before the analysis is that in 2018 Senate Race Beto O’Rourke actually won a majority of state house seats, winning every district that the Democrats currently hold, and several Republican held won seats as well.
LIKELY D |
LEAN D |
TOSS UP |
LEAN R |
LIKELY R |
34 — Herrero |
45 — Zwiener |
26 — Miller |
28 — Zerwas |
14 — Raney |
102 — Ramos |
47 — Goodwin |
65 — Beckley |
54 — Buckley |
32 — Hunter |
105 — Meza |
52 — Talarico |
66 — Shaheen
|
64 — Stucky |
84 — Frullo |
107 — Neave |
113 — Bowers |
67 — Leach |
93 — Krause |
85 — Stephenson |
114 — Turner |
|
92 — Stickland |
94 — Tinderholt |
89 — Noble |
115 — Johnson |
|
96 — Zelder |
97 — Goldman
|
106 — Patterson |
136 — Bucy |
|
108 — Meyer |
121 — Allison |
122 — Larson |
|
|
112 — Button |
126 — Harless |
129 — Paul |
|
|
132 — Calanni |
134 — Davis |
133 — Murphy |
|
|
135 — Rosenthal |
|
150 — Swanson |
|
|
138 — Bohac |
|
|
Likely D
This category consists of seven Democrat held districts, five of which were flipped in the 2018 midterms. The 2018 Democratic candidates, Beto O’Rourke and Hillary Clinton (in 2016), all won/carried these districts by fairly sizable margins. With Trump at the top of the ticket, it is pretty unlikely that any of these districts will flip to the Republicans. With two exceptions, HD 34 and HD 136, all of these districts are in Dallas County. Let’s look at the two exceptions first.
HD 34 – One of the two districts on this list that wasn’t Republican held going in to 2018. Democrat Abel Herrero was re-elected here by over 20 points in 2018, and has never really had a hard time winning this district. (He was unopposed in some of the previous cycles.) It might seem strange that I would classify this is anything other than “Safe D”. There is one main reason this district warrants notice: Beto’s (relative) under-performance here. In 2018, Beto won by just under 10 points, which is actually a (very) tiny bit worse, than Clinton, who won it by just over 10 points. This is the only district on this chart that Obama actually carried in 2012, performing about the same as Beto and Clinton.
HD 136 – John H. Bucy flipped this northern Austin (Williamson County) district in 2018, winning by about a 9 point margin. While Clinton’s won this district by about 2.4 points in 2016, quite a bit lower than all the other “Likely D” districts, which she won by around 8 to 10 points, Bucy should be relatively fine, considering his fairly high margin of victory and the fact that the district is heavily trending blue. (In contrast to Clinton, Beto carried it by over 17 points in 2018.)
HD 105, HD 114, HD 115 – These three Dallas County seats flipped blue in the 2018 midterms, with Democratic candidates winning these races between 9 and 15 percentage points. (In HD 105 and HD 115 Republican incumbents were defeated, after having won by less than 100 votes in 2016. HD 114 was open in 2018). Beto carried all three of these districts by around 15 to 18 points. It may also be interesting to point out that HD 114 and HD 115 are more historically red, with Romney carrying both of them by around 12 points.
HD 107 – This is the other district that had been Democratic held prior to 2018. Victoria Neave was re-elected here by over 14 points, having defeated a Republican incumbent two years earlier by a very narrow margin. This is one of the safer D seats on here, but warrants a mention here mainly due to the fact that it is quite similar in terms of statewide/presidential results to the other “Likely D” Dallas County seats.
HD 102 – In 2018, Ana-Marie Ramos won this seat by just under 6 points, defeating Republican incumbent Linda Koop. Very similar to the other Dallas area districts mentioned above, but deserves special attention due to the fact that Ramos’s margin was a little bit lower than the others in this category.
Lean D
This category contains four slightly more vulnerable Democrat held seats, all of which were flipped in the 2018 midterms. Beto carried all of these districts by between 10 and 13 points. Clinton carried one of the districts (HD 113), while Trump narrowly carried the other 3.
HD 45, HD 52 – Democrats won both of these open seats in 2018, by slightly over 3 points. These seats are both contained in Austin suburbs, with HD 52 being north (Round Rock), and HD 45 being south (Hays County). Both of the Democratic candidates should be slight favorites for 2020, given the demographic changes of these districts, as seen with Beto’s strong performances. (As of 2018, Hays County was the third fastest growing county.) HD 45 may be the most competitive of the four “Lean D” seats, given that Trump won this district by just over 4.5 points, his largest margin of any Democrat held seat in Texas.
HD 47 – In 2018 Vikki Goodwin defeated Republican incumbent Paul Workman in this Austin/southwestern Travis County district by over 4 points. This district was intended to be a safely Republican district in a normally Democratic area. However, due to changes in demographics and the political climate, this hasn’t really held up, with Trump winning it by just under 200 votes, down from Romney, who carried it by almost 19 points. Goodwin should be favored given the district’s blue trend.
HD 113 – This Dallas County district is probably the safest of the four “Lean D”, given that the 2018 Democratic candidate had a bit higher margin of victory here (Rhetta Andrews Bowers won this open seat by 7 points), and the fact that Clinton narrowly carried it, by a margin of just under 2 percentage points.
Toss Up
Three of the toss-up seats are Democrat held districts (HD 65, HD 132, and HD 135), and the remaining eight are Republican held districts. Let’s first take a look at the three Democratic held districts.
These three Democratic held districts appear to be the most vulnerable districts based on the fact that Beto carried all these districts by only single digit margins (he carried the remaining D held districts by double digits apart from HD 34), and that the Democratic 2018 candidates won by narrower margins. Democrats defeated Republican incumbents in all three of the districts in the 2018 midterms.
HD 65 – Both Michelle Beckley (in 2018), and Trump won this district by just over 2 percentage points. This district is located immediately to the north of Dallas, in Collin County. Beto won this district by about 9 points.
HD 132 – This northwestern Harris County (Houston) district, seems to be the most vulnerable D held seat, being that Democrat Gina Calanni won it by less than 200 votes, which is closer than any other (winning) Democratic candidate in 2018, and Beto won it by 3.5 points, also his lowest margin in any Democrat held seat. In addition, Trump won this district by just under 4.5 points, which was his second-best performance in any D held districts.
HD 135 – Like HD 132, this district is also located in northwestern Harris County, but seems to be trending blue a bit faster, with Trump winning it by about 2 points. In 2018, Jon Rosenthal won by a little more than 3 points, and Beto carried it by about 6.5 points, roughly halfway between his performances in HD 65 and HD 132.
As for the eight Republican held seats in this category. Republicans won all of these seats in 2018 by a margin of 5 points or less and Beto carried all but two of them. The three best pick up opportunities for Democrats are probably HD 108, HD 138, and HD 66 (in that order.) In 2018, Republicans were re-elected to all three of these districts by a margin of less than 1 percent.
HD 108 – In 2018, incumbent Morgan Meyer was re-elected by a margin of less than 200 votes, making him one of only two Republicans to currently represent Dallas County in the Texas State House. In addition to his very narrow election, Beto’s performance was notably strong here, winning by about 15 points, making this one of only two Republican held districts which he carried by double digits. Clinton also did really well in this district, winning it by over 6 points, in contrast to Romney who carried it by almost 20 points. Given that the district seems to be trending blue (at least at the statewide/presidential level), some may think Dems would be favored to flip this seat, but I’d prefer it to keep it a toss-up, in the absence of any announced Democratic candidates.
HD 138 – Republican Dwayne Bohac also looks extremely vulnerable, as he was re-elected to this Harris County district (Houston) by a mere 47 votes, the closest margin for any Texas State House Republican in 2018. In 2016, this district was also incredibly competitive with Clinton carrying it by 36 votes, a large Democrat swing from 2012, as Romney carried it by almost 20 points. Beto won this district by over 6 points in 2018.
HD 66 – Republican Matt Shaheen was re-elected to this Collin County district by under 400 votes in 2018. This district has been trending blue, as Mitt Romney carried it by almost 24 points, while Trump carried it by just over 3 points. Beto carried this district by slightly less than six points.
As for the remaining Republican held districts:
HD 26 – This Fort Bend County district (just southwest of Houston) looks to be heavily trending blue, going from 27 point Romney win to Trump winning it by just under 5 points. In 2018, Beto carried this district by about 1.5 points, and incumbent Rick Miller was re-elected by just under 5 points.
HD 67 – Republican Jeff Leach was re-elected here in 2018 to this Collin County district by just over 2 points. This district is quite similar to HD 66, although Trump did a few percentage points better here.
HD 92 – One of the two R held “Toss-Up” districts that Beto did not carry. He lost this Tarrant County district by about 2.5 points. However, Republican Jonathan Stickland was actually re-elected by a narrower margin (albeit, 0.1 percentage point narrower), making this the only competitive district where the 2018 Democratic candidate actually outperformed Beto. In this case, Stickland’s narrow 2018 reelection margin is the main reason I’m calling this a toss-up. As with most districts on the list, it is trending blue. Trump carried it by about 14 points, while Romney carried it by about 24 points.
HD 96 – Also centered in Tarrant County, this is the other “Toss-Up” R district that Beto lost. Beto came extremely close to carrying this district, losing it by under 100 votes. Again, this is a notable improvement for the Democrats over 2016, in which Trump won it by over 11 points. Bill Zelder was re-elected here in 2018 by under 4 points.
HD 112 – This is the other Republican held Dallas County district. This district looks promising for the Democrats at the statewide/presidential level, with Clinton carrying it by a little more than a percentage point, and Beto carrying it by just under 10 points. Angie Chen Button was re-elected here in 2018 by 2 percentage points.
Lean R
This category contains nine more Republican held seats, three of which Beto carried (HD 64, HD 121, and HD 134), and six of which he lost, all by less than 4 points. These seats are competitive, but seem to favor the Republicans a bit more at this stage. First, let’s talk about the three districts that Beto carried.
HD 64, HD 121 – Beto narrowly carried both of these seats by less than a percentage point (under 400 votes in both cases), while Republicans won both of these seats in 2018 by between 8 and 9 percentage points. These districts are located in very different regions of the state with HD 64 centered around Denton (northwest of Dallas), and HD 121 is based in northern San Antonio. Trump did a bit better in HD 64, winning it by over 14 points, while he won HD 121 by a little more than 8 points. Even though Beto’s performances are arguably strong enough to warrant these seats as toss ups, the 2018 State House margins would indicate that the current Republicans (Lynn Stucky in HD 64, and Steve Allison HD 121) would be somewhat favored to win in 2020.
It may also be worth pointing out that HD 121 was open in 2018, having been represented by (then) speaker Joe Strauss until then.
HD 134 – Going into the 2018 midterms, this suburban Harris County district may have looked like the easiest pickup opportunity for Democrats, being that Clinton carried this district in 2016 by over 15 points (a roughly 30 point swing towards the Democrats from 2012 when Romney carried it by almost the same amount.) However in 2018, Republican Sarah Davis managed to get re-elected, by around 6 points, most likely due to some of her socially moderate views. (She is pro choice). Beto easily carried this district, winning by over 21 points, making this the only district in this entire list, to have voted for him by over 20 points. While Davis would be favored in if she runs again, it is conceivable to think she may not be the Republican nominee in 2020. In 2018, she faced a primary challenge from the right (picked by TX Governor Abbott), who she was able to defeat. It’s possible she could be primaried again in 2020, and due to the rightward shift of the Texas Republican Party (with many of the moderate Republicans now voting Democrat), she may not survive this time around. If another Republican candidate ends up being the nominee, the Democrats would be highly favored to flip this seat, given how blue this district has become on the national level.
As for the remaining “Lean R” seats:
HD 28 – This Fort Bend County district has been trending blue, going from an over 29 point Romney win to a just over 10 point Trump win. Beto lost this district by around 3 points, further improving on these margins for Democrats. Republican John Zerwas was re-elected here in 2018, by a little more than 8 points.
HD 54 – Republican Brad Buckley won this open seat race by less than 8 points in 2018. Unlike most of the other districts on this list, HD 54 is not located in a major urban area (it is located about halfway between Austin and Waco), and does not show a lot of the other same signs of trending blue. For one thing, this district changed very little at the presidential level between 2012 and 2016, with Romney and Trump both carrying the district by about 7 points, and Buckley’s 2018 margin of victory wasn’t substantially lower than previous Republican representatives, unlike a lot of the other districts. However, Beto did quite a bit better here, as he lost this district by just over a point, indicating that it will be competitive in 2020.
HD 93, HD 94, HD97 – This Tarrant County districts are very all similar (in terms of presidential/statewide results) to the nearby HD 92, which is classified as a toss-up. However, in all three of these districts, Republicans were re-elected in 2018 by larger margins (between 7 to 9 points). HD 97 is likely be the most competitive of the three, given that Trump did a few points worse, winning it by just under 10 points.
HD 126 – Another northwestern Harris County that is showing signs of becoming more Democratic, it went from voting for Romney by over 25 points to voting for Trump by just under 10 points. In 2018, Republican Sam Harless, won this open seat race by almost as much as Trump. However, Beto lost this district by less than 4 points.
Likely R
This category contains ten more Republican held districts. These districts are likely to stay Republican, but have the potential to be competitive, based on recent trends. Beto lost these all by 15 points or less. The first two districts described below (HD 14 and HD 32), seem to have the most potential to be competitive.
HD 14 – This district is based around College Station, home to Texas A&M University, Like many areas with college educated voters, it has shifted greatly towards the Democrats: both between 2012 and 2016, and 2016 and 2018. It went from voting Romney carrying it by over 21 points, to Trump carrying it by a little more than 15 points, and, finally, Beto lost it by just a little more than 2 points. Despite Beto’s solid performance, Republican John Raney managed to get re-elected by almost 13 points. Raney’s 2018 margin should indicate he should be relatively safe for 2020, but if he ends up not running, this will likely become highly competitive, given that Beto’s performance here is much more similar to the “Lean R” seats, and even some of the “Toss Up”, than any of the other “Likely R” seats.
HD 32 – This district located around Corpus Christi has never actually been contested by the Democrats in its current form. Therefore, it is not guaranteed that the Democrats will even run anyone here in 2020 either. Unlike the (somewhat outlier) AD 34 nearby, this district does appear to have been trending towards the Democrats, although not by the large swings that the more urban/suburban ones have. Beto lost this district by around 5 points, with Trump having won it by almost double that margin, and Romney carrying it by about 15.5 points.
HD 84 – Beto lost this Lubbock district by almost 13 points, much closer than 2016, where Trump carried it by about 24.5 points.
HD 85 – This Fort Bend County district seems to be trending blue, going from a 23 point Romney win to a 15 point Trump win. In 2018, Beto lost this district by about 10 points, while Republican Phil Stephenson was re-elected by 13 points.
HD 89 – Republican Candy Noble won this open seat in 2018 by 19 points, which seems pretty safe. However, this district is worth mentioning due to it’s recent trend towards the Democrats. It went from voting for Romney by almost 35 points to voting for Trump by 25 points, and Beto lost it by about only 12 points.
HD 122 – Republican Lyle Larson was re-elected here by almost 24 points in 2018. This northern San Antonio district is trending blue, very similar to HD 89 mentioned just above.
HD 129, HD 133 – Republicans were re-elected to both of these Harris County districts by about 14 to 17 percentage points. Beto lost both of these districts by around 9 points. These districts both went from supporting Romney by over 30 points to supporting Trump by under 16 points.
HD 150 – Valoree Swanson was re-elected to this northern Harris County district by between 15 and 16 points in 2018. This was actually Beto’s worst performance of all the districts on this list, as he lost it by just under 15 points, barely outperforming the 2018 Democratic House candidate. Nonetheless, this district still shows movement towards the Democrats in general, as Trump won it between 22 and 23 points, and Romney won it by over 38 points.
In short, my ranking for control of the Texas State House (in 2020) is: Toss Up.
There are eight Republican held toss-ups so the Democrats would need to flip at least one “Lean R” or “Likely R” seat for an outright majority of the chamber. However, many of the Republican held seats will very likely end up becoming more favorable for the Democrats. As mentioned early, HD 90 will be redrawn for 2020, so at least one of the Republican held Tarrant County seats included on here will probably be redrawn as well and possibly become more favorable to Democrats. (HD 90 borders both HD 92, HD 93, and HD 94.) Retirements could make some of the districts (HD 134 in particular), more competitive. Finally, Texas is one of the few states where the 2020 turnout is expected to favor Democrats, particularly if Beto O’Rourke ends up being the 2020 Democratic Nominee.
I would like to give special thanks to Emil Shabanov, who somewhat coincidentally created his own ratings of the Texas State House (posted on twitter earlier this month). There were a few districts on here that I wasn’t aware of until I saw them on his chart.
My sources include the Daily Kos (for presidential results), Texas Secretary of State (for the 2018 election results) website, and open-elections-tx on GitHub, which contained precinct level data for the counties, necessary for computing the U.S. Senate margins in some house districts.