I know the scatter plot above is not all that legible precinct by precinct. There are more than 600 precincts in the districts in this area. I decided to post it to highlight two things.
- Neither party does particularly well in the largest precincts. The dots below the line are the precincts with the weakest support. Most of the dots further right fall below the line. That is not a good sign for either party.
- In the context of this election cycle, that is very good news for Democrats. It is not great that Democrats underperform in the precincts with the most voters, but we can exploit the Republicans weakness here since we are challenging six more seats than we did in the last cycle. That means we have clear targets to go after across the region.
See the individual republican-held District Profiles linked below to learn more about the opportunities in these districts.
Some conclusions looking at the Richmond Metro Area data
The task ahead of us is daunting. We did not contest enough seats last cycle; we did not seek the vote of 517,087 active registered voters in this region alone. Those districts have 801,000 constituents we did not wish to represent. Far too often we on the liberal side ask ourselves how people in "Red America" can keep voting against their interests.
Voters in "Red America" are not voting against their own interests; they are simply voting for those showing any interest in them.
It is exciting to see so many Democrats stepping up to the plate this cycle. It is important to show people everywhere the basic respect of asking for their vote, of demonstrating our concern for their issues by seeking to represent them. The act of running itself is a powerful statement of principle.
We may not win every race, but every race we run will win us more support. That additional support will help us build the party, win other cross-ballot or up-ballot races, and eventually win in areas we wrongly consider "unwinnable" at this point.
The only thing I know for certain is that we can not claim victory in a seat unless we run for that seat. We should always run a full slate of candidates; we should always contest every race.
Republican-held District Profiles
- Click on District number to see data profile.
- Click on the candidate name to go to their web presence.
- Uncontested and Primary Race do not link, but clicking on the district number will show the democratic competitors in the primary as part of the data profile.
District 27 - Larry Barnett
District 54 - Al Durante
District 55 - Morgan Goodman
District 61 - Uncontested
District 62 - Primary Race
District 64 - Primary Race
District 65 - Uncontested
District 66 - Katie Sponsler
District 68 - Primary Race
District 72 - Schuyler VanValkenburg
District 73 - Primary Race
District 97 - Uncontested
District 98 - Ella Webster
District 99 - Primary Race