This was originally posted to The Full Slate Project.
There was a big win in Prince William County last night. Democrat Jacqueline Smith became one of very few Democrats to win a countywide race in Prince William County since the 1930s when she won the Special Election for Clerk of Courts. Not only that, but the Republican outspent us 7-1 with around $250,000 to our candidate's roughly $35,000.
Enhancing the importance of this race is the fact that eight House of Delegates Districts has precincts within Prince William County. Of those eight seats, six are Republican-held while two are in Democratic hands. So while in national and statewide races this county has been swinging in recent cycles, it has been strongly leaning right in legislative district and other local races.
What made this race particularly exciting is the way it was won. Thirteen Democrats are running for these eight seats (primary contests in District 2, 13 and 31). Most of those campaigns rallied around this race to get this result. Prior to the election, I did a brief case-study data piece on this dynamic of this race and the cross-ballot impacts running a Full SlateTM of candidates could have here. Now that we have had an actual election, let's take a look at some numbers and see what they tell us about what happened here.
I think there is probably a lesson for Democrats across the country to learn here.
Prince William County Snapshot
- House of Delegates Districts in County = 8
- Total Active Registered Voters = 227,243
- House of Delegates Districts Contested last Cycle = 7
- Uncontested District Last Cycle = District 51
- No Republican Candidate Last Cycle = District 52
- No Republican Candidate This Cycle = District 52
Before we begin to look at some data graphics, it is important to note a few things.
First, since I am comparing general election data from 2015 to a much lower turnout special election, the data in this post largely centers on % of the vote for the Democrat. Comparing performance by this measure of rate is the only reliable way to see a picture of what happened in this race.
Second, this data is confined only to the precincts within Prince William County. The Clerk race itself covers Prince William County, Manassas park and Manassas City localities. I simply focus on Prince William County because it is the only locality that has a portion of every race I am comparing within its boundaries.
Third, as a result of the second point, you will notice that it looks like the Democrats should have won that seat in 2015 even though it is Republican-held. That is because I am only looking at the District 2 precincts within Prince William County. This analysis does not include the Stafford County precincts in District 2.
So with these things in mind let's dive in finally: