Independent Larry Pressler
Republican Mike Rounds was supposed to have an easy path to the Senate, but he's hit more turbulence than initially expected. While polling has
consistently shown him ahead, he's often seen his support mired in the mid-40s or even the 30s. Complicating things further is the
EB-5 matter: Rounds' opponents have accused him of being involved in a scheme to sell off immigration visas to enrich his cronies. This story has been slowly developing but has gotten a good deal of attention in recent weeks, and it's threatening to cause Rounds more problems.
All this came to a head Tuesday when SurveyUSA, on behalf of local news outlets, released a poll showing Rounds leading Larry Pressler, a former Republican senator running as an independent, by a tight 35-32 margin. Democrat Rick Weiland is in third at 28 percent. Recent polls (including Weiland's own internals from PPP) have shown Pressler gaining support in recent weeks, but this is the first time he's been in second place, much less only three points away from Rounds. SurveyUSA's last poll from early September showed Rounds leading Weiland 39-28, with Pressler at 25. While Pressler is a former Republican he also backed Obama twice, and he seems to be drawing quite a bit of support across the ideological spectrum.
In theory, the best thing for Weiland or Pressler to do would be to drop out of the race and back the other candidate against Rounds. SurveyUSA found Rounds and Weiland tied 47 percent each in a hypothetical two-way race, while Pressler would lead the Republican 54-39. However, no candidate can actually remove himself from the ballot at this point in the race. Furthermore, it doesn't look like either of Rounds' opponents is looking at quitting. Larry Lessig's Mayday PAC just committed $1 million to helping Weiland, by far the most outside support he's ever gotten. For his part, Pressler doesn't have much loyalty to either party and is unlikely to pull the plug on his campaign now that he looks close to pulling off an improbable win.
It's unclear what will happen next. Rounds is well-funded and could very well glide to victory if Weiland and Pressler keep splitting the anti-Rounds vote. However, with EB-5 continuing to haunt the Republican, he may not be able to maintain his support. Pressler himself is badly funded and may not be able to adequately defend himself if Rounds attacks him. Of course he's made it this far and is surging at a time when most independents see their supporter fall, so he may be able to hang on. It's also possible that if Pressler bleeds voters, those people will go to Weiland and give the Democrat a chance. Only one thing is certain: What was once a sleepy Senate race has turned into one of the strangest contests in the nation.
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