Last week I received an email from the gubernatorial campaign of Ernest Istook notifying me of an upcoming fund-raising visit by Karl Rove. Istook, OK-5's congresscritter since 1992, is challenging the very popular Democratic incumbent Brad Henry. According to the email,
Without a doubt Rove's trip for Congressman Istook sends a message that he will be the next Governor of Oklahoma. Get on board now, while you still can.
Oh, really? Methinks thou dost have WAY too much confidence in Rove's powers, at least in this race.
More below...
In the August 15th
Rasmussen poll of 500 likely voters, Governor Henry currently leads Congressman Istook 54% to 33%. SurveyUSA's
August 28th poll has Henry leading Istook by 26 points (60%-34%) with 5% undecided.
Given that Governor Henry has a 75% job approval rating (second in the nation only to ND Governor John Hoeven) and a 20-something point lead in the polls, this race isn't really as competitive as the Republicans would like to believe. In fact, Rasmussen reports that Henry, a moderate, gets 27% of the Republican vote. Henry polls at 18:1 among liberals, while Istook has only a 2:1 margin among conservatives. Big difference.
Henry and Istook are close in the "very favorable opinion" category, with Henry leading 29-24. However, Istook takes the prize for "very unfavorable" with 18% as opposed to Henry's 7%. Combined with George W. Bush's net rating of -9% (45% favorable, 54% unfavorable - not much help there, Ernie), Istook's row looks to be too tough to hoe.
Karl Rove will no doubt raise a lot of money for Istook, but it'll be very difficult to overcome Istook's deficit in the polls. Unless Rove can figure out a way to keep the vast majority of Oklahomans away from the polls on November 7th, we're going to have a Democrat in the Governor's mansion for another 4 years.
Thank goodness.