Florida is a notoriously expensive state to campaign in. It has 5 media markets in the top 54 from the I-4 corridor on down — and that leaves out 7 (deep red) Congressional Districts in 3 other media markets. So trying to campaign and win voters over the airwaves is really expensive.
So when the University of North Florida polls 1,534 Likely Voters and find “Val Demings came out on top in the head-to-head against Marco Rubio for U.S. Senate, with 48% indicating a vote for Demings and 44% for Rubio, with 7% saying they would vote for someone else,” people pay attention. And they pay attention because Florida is a really expensive state to campaign in. Incumbent senators should easily be polling ahead of a Central Florida Member of Congress. What is worse (actually, better for Democrats) is that the assumption behind these polls numbers isn’t that the likely Democratic Senate candidate, Val Demmings, has really high name recognition, it is that voters are choosing based upon their party identification. We live in a polarized America.
It is becoming increasingly common to note that we are seeing a really weird political dynamic this year. The pandemic recession is different than the bubble recession. Hope Springs from Field PAC sees that at the doors of the voters to whom we talk. And, yet, Florida isn’t really on the radar of the two partisan SuperPACs (which have made the biggest pre-booked buys on the map to the right). Now I understand the thinking here. If Florida is in play, all bets are off. Can you have a Blue Wave in the Senate and a Red Wave in the House?
The House and the Senate are two different creatures, but they tend to have been linked in “wave” elections. A big gain of seats in the House is generally paired with some gains in the Senate. And there is a possibility that isn’t (yet) getting a lot on thought. Maybe we aren’t going to see a Red Wave. The more that Donald Trump opens his mouth, the less likely that seems to be likely. If there isn’t a Red Wave coming (and redistricting really short-circuits the possibility of a Blue Wave), then we are looking at a conventional election season. An election season where candidates matter. Where money matters. Where message and organization matters. Where issues matter.
Where Candidates Matter. If this is a normative election cycle, and not a Red Wave, then the candidates are far more determinative. A Wave Election will elect weak candidates because that doesn’t matter so much. If voters are angry and ready to vote solely on the basis of whether or not it is the party in power, Republicans can nominate and elect the crazies. But if it is not, voters will think carefully about who they vote for.
And this points back to the Issues Survey we use each week knocking on doors. We focus in these diaries on the “Most Urgent” Issue facing the country today query, where Reproductive Freedom can be found when the media is saturated with coverage on that issue. But we also ask voters if there is a single issue that will determine there vote. We expected these to be the same, and we have been surprised that they are not. In Florida, 24% of those who respond to that issue have told us that Reproductive Rights is their “single issue” that will determine how they will vote this November. The pandemic recovery has made Florida weird (other states, as well).
Which brings me back to the point here: volunteers from Hope Springs from Field have been knocking on the doors of two of the major media markets in Florida (Tampa and Orlando) and we see evidence that things are not falling in line with what has been conventional wisdom. Stephanie Murphy may wind up regretting abandoning her Congressional seat. DeSantis may not do as well as he imagines. Florida may push the Democratic majority to comfortable margins.
In other words, what we are seeing at the doors is a jump ball. Which may be why the public opinion polls are all over the place. Indeed, our own Issues Canvass results seem jumpy as well. In light of that confusion, or apprehension (which is exactly what we are seeing at the doors in Central Florida), you should be seeing huge media buys by statewide candidates. Now Marco Rubio has, according to the latest reports, twice as much Cash on Hand as Val Demings but that advantage is due to Rubio’s longer history of fund-raising. “If the latest reports’ receipts, covering one month, were projected out over a full quarter, it would amount to a $12.7 million quarterly pace for Demings, and a $5.2 million quarterly pace for Rubio.”
Final point: the GOP will spend to defend this seat. But if the NRSC and the Senate Leadership Fund have to devote considerable resources to defend Rubio this Fall then they don’t have resources to compete in Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin. Florida is a really expensive state to campaign in. And it sure appears in Central Florida that Republicans have been caught unaware. DeSantis’ war with Disney has promised Central Floridians in Orange and Osceola counties a property tax bill of ~$1 Billion and voters are concerned. The stakes have never been higher, and the campaigns are basically unprepared. Which has given Democrats an opportunity because they are the aggressors (and they haven’t attempted to foist $1B tax increase on them). Florida is the state we have to watch most carefully because so much depends on what Republicans decide to do here. If they decide to spend $100M to save Rubio, then every other state will see opportunities for Democrats to win. If they don’t decide to spend $100M then Democrats have a huge opportunity here. And that isn’t a bad position for Democrats. Not bad at all.
386 volunteers came out on Saturday to knock on doors for Hope Springs from Field PAC. We continue to canvass in Hispanic neighborhoods in Osceola and the Orlando suburbs of Seminole and Volusia Counties.
We canvass with an Issues Questionnaire that allows voters to tell us what is on their minds. We use it as a conversational check to guide volunteers through their dialog at the door. It makes it easy on our volunteers as provides us with vital data that will be entered in VAN (the Democratic database) after the primary. The first thing we ask is whether the people we talk to are registered to vote at their current address.
We also ask voters whether they have a primary issue concern. What we are looking for is to determine whether they are “single issue” voters. We use open-ended questions because we are really looking for quick, immediate responses. People know what issues they will be voting on, and if they can’t think of any, that doesn’t defeat the purpose. The Economy was the number one concern we heard in Central Florida. Voters are really concerned about the economic uncertainty on the Tourist Economy. Lots and lots of comments about how Florida just has not returned to (pre-Covid) normal. And some of the steps Florida’s governor has taken in the last few months have increased concern among the voters with whom we have talked. Jobs continues to be the second most frequent response. This week, Reproductive Rights was third.
56% of the voters we talked to expressed approval of President Biden in Florida on Saturday. 8% expressed disapproval in the job the president was doing.
DeSantis’ approval numbers are still stuck in single digits in Central Florida, 3% on Saturday; disapproval of DeSantis was 54%. Senator Rubio’s approval numbers fell to 18% this week. Still underwater, though (34% disapproved of Rubio’s job performance).
Hope Springs from Field PAC has been knocking on doors in a grassroots-led effort to prepare the Electoral Battleground in what has been called the First Round of a traditional Five Round Canvass. We are taking those efforts to the doors of the communities most effected (the intended targets or victims) of these new voter suppression laws.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Hope Springs from Field PAC understands that repeated face to face interactions are critical. And we are among those who believe that Democrats didn’t do as well in the 2020 Congressional races as expected because we didn’t knock on doors — and we didn’t register new voters (while Republicans dud). We are returning to the old school basics: repeated contacts, repeated efforts to remind them of protocols, meeting them were they are. Mentoring those who need it (like first time and newly registered voters). Reminding, reminding, reminding, and then chasing down those voters whose ballots need to be cured.
We registered 8 New Voters last Saturday and updated (or corrected) the addresses of another 63 voters. Almost all of these registrations were accomplished using the Florida state SOS website.
We also ask people who open their doors about whether they need public services delivered to their neighborhood. 118 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms last Saturday. In general, we send these to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We specifically ask voters if they have any concerns about the upcoming elections. Last year, we walked with lit about the changes in voting laws in Florida, but we also asked voters about their fears and experience in prior elections. Voters who say they have experience voter intimidation or other problems with voting are asked to fill out Incident Reports. We found 3 voters who wanted to fill out Incident Reports in Florida on Saturday. These are voters who witnessed some form of voter intimidation or malfeasance at the polls. We collate these Incident Reports, to be shared with local, state and federal officials in charge of voting, as well as use them to plan out our Election Protection strategy in the fall. They could also be used in court cases.
Several professional fundraisers have told me my reports are too cheery, that if I want to raise money I need to be more scary. Maybe that is true, but Hope Springs from Field’s origins are more grassroots. If this work needs to be supported, then it will be funded. So if you are able to support our efforts to protect Democratic voters, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, please help:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/2022senateswing
Thank you for your support. This work depends on you!