RI-Gov: Fleming & Associates is out with a look at the infrequently-polled Sept. 13 Democratic primary for Roger Williams University and WPRI, and it shows Gov. Dan McKee holding a narrow 28-25 advantage over Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea. Former CVS executive Helena Foulkes and former Secretary of State Matt Brown are further back with 14% and 8%, respectively, while a hefty 21% of respondents remain undecided.
Fleming showed McKee holding off Gorbea by a similar 25-23 margin back in May as Brown grabbed 7%, though Foulkes has more than doubled her 6% share since then. However, we’ve seen just two polls during the intervening time. A Suffolk University survey in late June gave Gorbea a 24-20 advantage over the incumbent, who was elevated from lieutenant to governor last year when Gina Raimondo resigned to become U.S. secretary of commerce, with Foulkes at 16%. The secretary of state went on to release a late July internal from Lake Research Partners that put her ahead of McKee 27-22, while Foulkes was similarly situated at 14%.
While all of these surveys agree that the contest is tight, though, no one has aired any negative TV ads yet. Gorbea went up with a new commercial just before this newest poll was publicized that emphasizes her support for abortion rights but does not mention any of her rivals. Brown, meanwhile, is spending what WPRI’s Ted Nesi reports is a $50,000 opening buy that touts both him and state Sen. Cynthia Mendes, who is running for lieutenant governor, as a progressive team. (Candidates for governor and lieutenant governor run in separate primaries and general elections, but Brown and Mendes are campaigning as an informal ticket.)
McKee, meanwhile, goes into the final days of the race with a larger war chest than any of his opponents. We’ve summarized the newest fundraising reports, which cover the period from July 1 to Aug. 15, below:
- Foulkes: $270,000 raised, additional $240,000 self-funded, $1 million spent, $180,000 cash-on-hand
- McKee: $130,000 raised, $730,000 spent, $630,000 cash-on-hand
- Gorbea: $100,000 raised, $530,000 spent, $360,000 cash-on-hand
- Brown: $100,000 raised, $80,000 spent, $80,000 cash-on-hand
While Foulkes doesn’t currently have much left, Nesi writes that “last week her campaign indicated plans to spend an additional $1.2 million by the day of the primary,” so she may plan to put much more of her money into her campaign. McKee will also be getting some outside help soon from a group called Forward Rhode Island that has received $500,000 in contributions from his allies at the Laborers union. The spots aren’t available yet, but Nesi says the first one is “positive commercial touting McKee’s record in office.”
The eventual nominee will go up against businesswoman Ashley Kalus, who faces no serious opposition in her Republican primary. Kalus, who has been self-funding almost all of her campaign’s budget, brought in just $10,000 from donors over the last month-and-a-half but spent another $860,000 and had $250,000 left over.
P.S. If McKee lost next month, he would be only the second Rhode Island governor to ever fall in a primary. The first was Bruce Sundlun, a fellow Democrat who lost his 1994 primary in a landslide against state Sen. Myrth York after a tenure dominated by the state’s economic struggles. Republican Lincoln Almond went on to defeat York that fall; Ocean State Democrats wouldn’t regain the governor’s office until 2013, when independent Lincoln Chafee switched his party affiliation. Chafee himself decided not to run again the next year rather than go through a tough primary against Raimondo.
McKee is also trying to avoid joining the small group of six state governors who have lost their party’s nomination during the 21st century. Two of them, both Republicans, were also running for the first time since they ascended from the lieutenant governor’s office: Utah’s Olene Walker failed to advance out of her party’s 2004 convention, while Kansas’ Jeff Colyer lost by 343 votes in his 2018 race against Trump-endorsed foe Kris Kobach.