A new Navigator Research survey holds good news and bad news for Democrats: Voters are more inclined to trust Democrats over Republicans on handling jobs and the economy (good news), but only after they are made aware of basic data suggesting the U.S. economy is improving.
That last part is the bad news. Americans' current outlook on the economy continues to be dismal even as there is a more optimistic case to be made. From a messaging standpoint, that gives Democrats an opportunity, albeit a challenging one: They will have to balance gently reassuring people that things are improving without trivializing the day-to-day stressors people feel.
So let's get into some numbers. Navigator found voters' views of the economy were 58 points underwater, 20% positive - 78% negative—a smidge worse than last November.
Among independents, nearly 9 in 10 rate the national economy negatively (85%), and 7 in 10 say they feel uneasy about their personal financial situation (70%).
Additionally, 82% of registered voters say the costs of everyday goods like groceries continue to rise "a significant amount," while 80% say gas prices are still rising "a lot" or "somewhat." Whether these things are materially true or not isn't the issue—it's the perception of an overwhelming number of voters that matters.
Let's stop here to sneak in a little more good news before getting into Democrats' messaging challenge. If House Republicans weren't so busy torching the place, they would have an opportunity to capitalize on putting forward some measures that might save people money and conceivably make their lives a little less stressful. Instead, they're torching the place, and voters know it.
Voters' top four issues are inflation (56%), jobs/economy (47%), Social Security/Medicare (30%), and health care (29%).
Just 16% of voters rated oversight of the Biden administration as a top priority, but 55% said it was congressional Republicans' No. 1 issue. Meanwhile, just 39% of respondents said Republicans were focused on voters' top concern, inflation; and just 35% said Republicans were focused on voters' second-most pressing issue, jobs and the economy.
In other words, voters are convinced that congressional Republicans' priorities are entirely misaligned, not to mention self-serving.
Now to the messaging opportunity—Americans truly aren't clear on several encouraging signs for the economy, including job creation, record-low unemployment rates, and falling gas prices. For instance, a higher percentage of voters believed more jobs were lost last year (32%) than those who said more jobs were created (29%).
In fact, the U.S. economy saw extraordinary job growth in 2022, with 4.5 million jobs added—the second highest on record right after 2021's record-high surge of 6.7 million jobs created.
Relaying actual data on job creation and low unemployment rates proved to be the two most effective ways to improve voters' perceptions of the economy.
- 46% found this argument convincing: 10.5 million jobs have been added under President Biden, the most at this point in any presidency on record
- 44% founding this argument convincing: The unemployment rate is down to 3.7%, setting a 50-year low
Finally, hearing about these positive economic trends shifts trust in favor of Democrats' handling of the economy. Before being shown a list of the trends, voters preferred Republicans over Democrats on jobs and the economy by 5 points, 47% Rs - 42% Biden/Ds.
But after hearing the positive outcomes, voters shifted 8 points in Democrats' direction, giving them a 3-point edge over Republicans, 46% Biden/Ds - 43% Republicans.
"This shift was largely driven by independents (from a net 7-point advantage trusting Republicans more to a net 12-point advantage trusting Biden and Democrats more)," writes Navigator.
Democrats have very solid facts to work with right now in terms of convincing voters that they have proven to be good stewards of the economy in a time of great uncertainty. The problem is, Americans are still painfully familiar with the "great uncertainty" part of that equation, which means they don't exactly feel like the economy is reaching rocket-ship heights right now.
Here's what a Gallup poll last month found about Americans' mood overall:
Coming off several challenging years, Americans enter 2023 with a mostly gloomy outlook for the U.S. as majorities predict negative conditions in 12 of 13 economic, political, societal and international arenas.
When offered opposing outcomes on each issue, about eight in 10 U.S. adults think 2023 will be a year of economic difficulty with higher rather than lower taxes and a growing rather than shrinking budget deficit. More than six in 10 think prices will rise at a high rate and the stock market will fall in the year ahead, both of which happened in 2022. In addition, just over half of Americans predict that unemployment will increase in 2023, an economic problem the U.S. was spared in 2022.
The public's gloomy economic outlook isn't helped one bit by the month-to-month media narrative that the U.S. economy has just narrowly escaped another near-death experience.
Heading into 2024, Democrats must chip away at the narrative that Republicans are better for the economy. It's simply not true. But that means having an honest conversation with the public about these uncertain times, and Democrats' steady stewardship of the economy despite it all.
It can't be, We saved the economy. It's more, We are ably steering the economy through a time of great uncertainty, which is exactly why you should trust us to continue doing it. That framing acknowledges voters' angst while also plugging Democrats' very good work on coming back from the pandemic’s edge.
Plus, Republicans think Hunter Biden's laptop somehow holds the key to helping everyday Americans’ bottom line, which is why they are devoting the bulk of their energy to it and other score-settling investigations.
That contrast will be a nice exclamation point to Democrats' responsible leadership.
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