OH-Sen: New Baldwin Wallace U Poll Has Rep. Tim Ryan (D) Beating J.D. Vance (R) 48-45

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Thursday September 22, 2022 · 4:01 PM PDT

2022/09/22 · 16:01

Some good news today out of Ohio courtesy of Baldwin Wallace University’s latest poll:

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BW Community Research Institute survey shows a close race for the U.S. Senate, a wide lead for the incumbent governor and the economy as the issue most animating the state's likely voters. 🐝🇺🇲☑️#AwwJackets #YJ4L #BaldwinWallace
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https://t.co/o3Dp1Yr9Yx
— Baldwin Wallace University (@BaldwinWallace) September 22, 2022

In the race for U.S. Senate, the BW Ohio Pulse Poll has Ryan with a 3-point edge over Republican nominee J.D. Vance (48 to 45%), with 7% still undecided. Ryan holds larger leads among Independents, who favor the Democrat by 7 points, and women, who support Ryan by a 13-point margin.

"The race to replace retiring Republican Senator Rob Portman continues to poll surprisingly close considering the state's tilt to the right in recent years," said Dr. Thomas Sutton, who heads up BW's Community Research Institute. "The candidates are in a statistical tie with leaners added in."

"Still, Ryan's candidacy remains strong in the face of an influx of GOP PAC money to buy television advertising for Vance and support from former President Donald Trump, who most recently staged a rally with Vance on Ryan's home turf of Youngstown," Sutton noted. "With two-and-a-half weeks until early voting begins in Ohio on October 12, a lot is riding on the final weeks of the campaign and how the undecideds break."

Click here for the full results.

Other polling confirms a toss up race here:

Ohio Senate:
Vance (R) 46% (+1)
Ryan (D) 45%
.
Ohio Governor:
DeWine (R-inc) 55% (+18)
Whaley (D) 37%

.@maristpoll, 1,200 RV, 9/12-15https://t.co/bStn4AZnET
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 21, 2022

But Vance is clearly too scared to debate Ryan:

The campaign of GOP Senate nominee J.D. Vance has said he won’t participate in a debate hosted by the Ohio Debate Commission, as Republicans argue the commission is partisan.

The Republican National Committee said in a blog post earlier this week that the commission is “run by a hardline Democrat loyalist with a history of verbally assailing Republicans.”

The commission’s executive director, Jill Miller Zimon, has previously sought elected office as a Democrat and made donations to Democratic candidates, including giving $250 in 2014 to Vance’s current opponent in Ohio’s competitive and closely watched Senate race, Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan, according to a Columbus Dispatch report. However, Zimon has said she hasn’t taken part in partisan activities since joining the commission in 2018 and defended her group’s events as impartial, according to an AP report.

A different commission official said “democracy is paying the price” when debates don’t take place. Ohio’s incumbent governor, Republican Mike DeWine, who is running against Democratic challenger Nan Whaley, also has declined to take part in a faceoff hosted by the Ohio Debate Commission.

And I’m sure Vance doesn’t want to discuss this:

Russia is no stranger to being at the center of American elections. The Kremlin infamously meddled in the 2016 presidential race to tip the scales in favor of Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton, and since then, a growing portion of the MAGA right has grown both sympathetic to and supportive of Moscow.

But now, in Ohio, where roughly 45,000 Ukrainian-Americans call home, the escalating Russia-Ukraine war could prove to be a pivotal issue in one of the most hotly contested Senate races in the country.

Republican J.D. Vance has called for cutting off U.S. support for Ukraine, whereas Rep. Tim Ryan, the Democrat, says that America has a fundamental imperative to defend Ukraine from an unprovoked invasion. It’s a distinction that Ohio political analysts say could have an impact in such an intensely close race.

A new Marist poll released Wednesday showed Vance with a slim one-percentage-point lead over Ryan. And while Ohio’s Ukrainian-American population—one of the largest in the country—is just a small fraction of its overall voting population, they represent a voting bloc with the ability to alter the trajectory of the election if it’s close enough.

“It is a really tight race, and that could make a difference,” Nancy Martorano Miller, a political science professor at the University of Dayton, tells TIME. “It just depends at the end of the day on how close that race is going to be, and what other voting groups end up coming out.”

Ryan’s been having fun trashing Vance:

Weak. pic.twitter.com/ljCCFrvIlK
— Tim Ryan (@TimRyan) September 22, 2022

And FYI:

May the force be with you (it will be when you join us to phone bank with @MarkHamill).

Don’t wait, sign up now: https://t.co/gVxyxhX4uj
— Tim Ryan (@TimRyan) September 22, 2022

It’s this Saturday, the 24th. Click here to sign up.

Health and Democracy are on the ballot this year and we need to get ready to flip Ohio Blue. Click below to donate and get involved with Ryan and his fellow Ohio Democrats campaigns: