I keep wondering why I'm not seeing any articles about the coming Republican enthusiasm gap. I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that the mainstream media isn't going there, but I haven't seen anything on this website. If I missed it, I apologize, but even so it's worth some additional attention. Because I believe it can and maybe will be a major factor in the 2022 midterm elections.
I'll start at the beginning. During the past two years there have been many commentaries about the lack of enthusiasm that Democrats have for President Biden and by extension for the Democratic Party as a whole. The attention given to this has been almost overwhelming at times.
And now, as the president starts to rack up some significant victories, that narrative is fading. It can't disappear any too soon.
But what about the flipside? With the definitive, if still singular, result in this week’s Kansas vote, it seems to me that there is plenty of reason to flip that narrative 180°.
Because it looks like the Republicans have put themselves into a box.
On the one hand, if they continue to support draconian antiabortion legislation and the related restrictions that they seem to be hell-bent on instituting -- regarding gay marriage, contraception, etc. -- then they can expect to see a whole series of results similar to the Kansas vote in the upcoming election. All Democrats have to do is make sure that Republican candidates are tightly tied to their well-publicized punitive policies, and negative results for the Rs appear likely, if not inevitable.
While I’ve rarely been impressed by Democratic messaging, I'm pretty sure they can handle this one.
However, on the other hand, what if the Rs start to back away from those radical policies? That's where the enthusiasm gap starts to kick in.
And, it appears that is exactly what has started to happen. From the New York Times:
Republican candidates, facing a stark reality check from Kansas voters, are softening their once-uncompromising stands against abortion as they move toward the general election, recognizing that strict bans are unpopular and that the issue may be a major driver in the fall campaigns.
In swing states and even conservative corners of the country, several Republicans have shifted their talk on abortion bans, newly emphasizing support for exceptions. Some have noticeably stopped discussing details at all. Pitched battles in Republican-dominated state legislatures have broken out now that the Supreme Court has made what has long been a theoretical argument a reality.
I can almost feel the wrath already building among the Christian right. After all of the work they have done for 50 years, finally achieving their goal of overturning Roe -- at the first sign of pushback from the electorate, what happens? Republicans turn and try to cover their butts.
Is that what the right wing has been fighting for for all these years? Are these Republican politicians really as spineless as the Democrats have been saying all along?
Yes, as a matter of fact, they are. We can expect to see Republicans in race after race across the country backing slowly away from the gleeful efforts they've been making to turn America into a handmaiden culture.
No, I'm not saying that the religious right is going to start voting for Democrats. But what I do sincerely expect, is that they will simply stay home, scratching their heads and trying to figure out what all of their work has been for and how to come back from this.
In a way, this doesn't change anything for us. We need to vote, we need to vote like our lives depend on it, we need to vote like our country, our democracy, our lives are at stake. Because all of that remains true. But I think we should feel encouraged by the very real possibility that the Republicans’ base will be as discouraged by what's happening as many Democrats were discouraged by the challenges of the last two years.
Sunday, Aug 7, 2022 · 12:24:08 AM +00:00 · metro50
Wanted to say thanks for all of the thoughtful comments and that I am encouraged by the fact that this diary has been trending all day. It's past time for some pushback against all of the negativity that we are fed on a daily basis. Let's keep up the fight and never quit. There's so much we have to do.
Also, apparently Lawrence Tribe shares a similar upbeat view. Here’s what he said on Twitter:
I’ll go out on a limb and predict the Dems will score historic wins in the Senate and even the House this November because GOP nihilism and extreme overreach will sicken white-collar suburbs and women across the nation.