I usually write about Hope Springs from Field PAC’s canvassing (and now, post cards to new voters) project yet no one is immune from the Culture Wars that are threatening our Freedom and Liberty. We have been hearing about resistance to the GOP’s Rape Culture program from our volunteers since Dobbs was first argued before the Supreme Court.
I have a lot to say about this. Hope Springs from Field has been knocking on doors in 8 Senate Swing States since March (and, before that, last summer and fall). This year, though, grassroots volunteers canvassing with us have talked to 147,799 voters and conducted 93,004 Issues Surveys (one example to the right). We have seen a discernible increase in the number of voters who bring up Reproductive Freedom in response to some of the things we are asking.
We generally get responses about Reproductive Rights in the second (top issue in the country) or fifth (message to MoC) question. Less frequently, we have people tell us their single issue that will determine how they vote this year is Reproductive Freedom. And it is interesting that some voters would list Inflation or The Economy (for example) as their Top Issue facing the country while Reproductive Freedom was their Top Issue facing the state.
Here’s the thing: We first saw this topic make an impact back in Pennsylvania on July 24, 2021. It was then, iirc, that Mississippi successfully convinced the Supreme Court to take up Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization and the media gave it considerable coverage. But it was, for the most part, a one-off. Reproductive Freedom wasn’t really on voter’s radar last year.
That all changed with the release of the Alito draft opinion. That week, concern over Reproductive Rights was the third more frequent response to the question, what is the most urgent issue facing the country?
But through May, we found about 2% of the voters we talked to said something that indicated concern about Reproductive Rights. I am defining this broadly; so, for example, this includes the approximately dozen women who have mentioned the ERA. Remember, we are only canvassing in Senate Swing States, so the numbers are probably different for Deep Blue states like California or Deep Red states like Utah. And we talk to Democratic and independent voters; Republican households are screened off our walk lists (mixed households — and there are more of these then people realize — are included).
But you have see by this table of our responses through May and June that Reproductive Freedom popped up after the Alito draft opinion leak and then started to ebb away. It came back with a vengence after the release of the official SCOTUS opinion on Dobbs v Jackson. But last week, it only made the Top 3 issues in Pennsylvania. In fact, since the Independence Weekend, Pennsylvania was the only state we were finding voters expressing it as a consistent concern.
And there’s an important takeaway here: Reproductive Freedom rises to the top in the Urgent Issues category primarily when there is news — media attention — driving it.
This takeaway is reinforced by Tuesday’s results in Kansas. THANK YOU, KANSAS! Kansans for Constitutional Freedom (the main organizer for the victorious No campaign) went old school, relying on field organizing and canvassing, visibility every where, outreach to other civic groups and networks, as well as the digital campaign and television advertising. And, most importantly, they incorporated a message that appealed to all segments of the political conversation. This approach meant the Reproductive Freedom was in the news in Kansas all the time. All the time.
But we shouldn’t overlook something that has long been key to Democratic success at the presidential level for decades: expanding the electorate. Registering new voters and, especially, women voters. “Women accounted for 70% of all new registered voters in the state since June 24.” But there was a key secret to this effort. They weren’t just trying to appeal to the base. Their message was intentionally aimed at all but the most extreme Kansans. “Engaging with unaffiliated voters was a critical part of the strategy for those fighting against the amendment.” This was most definitely not a base election. This was a Freedom Election. Kansas was the first battle (and first victory) in the Fight to Preserve American Democracy. I kid you not.
And it conforms with what we are finding at the doors of those almost 150k voters we have talked to in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. We ask another question, Is there a single issue that will determine how you vote in November? I mentioned above that, in the beginning, we found about 2% of the voters we talked to said Reproductive Rights was key to determining how they would vote in November. But the longer we get away from the Dobbs decision (on June 24th), the higher that number has grown. Overall, it’s still slightly less than 6% of those voters we’ve talked to (Democrats and Independents, we weed out GOP households) but the last two weeks it has been around 8%.
Now 8% is not what my friends who have been Pro-Choice activists for years want to see. And just like Kansans for Constitutional Freedom successively was able to broaden their appeal, the fight for Reproductive Freedom has to do this at a national scale, as well. Most voters aren’t intuitively going to base their decisions on who to support based upon this unless they have a reason to do so. A reason that appeals to them. Moves them. Makes them brake the traditional bonds of political polarization.
And we are seeing the hints for this in the responses to our Issues Questionnaires.
Now as I was discussing (arguing, really, discussing makes it seem so objective) this topic with my activists friends, I had been arguing that the path to success lay on broadening in out to “The Right to Privacy.” Believe me, lots of people, including people who call themselves conservatives, have an interest in a codified Right to Privacy. And while I personally still believe in the impact of that message, I was wrong. That is *not* what we are hearing at the doors. Voters aren’t seeing their unenumerated Right to Privacy under attack (even though that is what Dobbs has done). But we are hearing about the extremes they fear Republicans will go to, especially in this area.
I have simplified those fears into a very simple description: GOP Rape Culture. Kansans for Constitutional Freedom ran on a message of Individual Freedom that appealed to its electorate. The electorate in these 8 Senate Swing States seem to be afraid of more than just losing their Individual Freedom. They are telling us that the extremists voters are hearing speak loudly right now are “more interested in rewarding Rapists” than providing Individuals a Constitutional Right to Choose what they do. The GOP Rape Culture they are trying to instill is intent on enforcing Conformity, their Values (above all others) and their Vision of what America is supposed to look like (and believe).
I will continue along this line of thought tomorrow.
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