One of the early stories of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been the near-absence of Russian aircraft over Ukrainian air space. Given the sheer size and supposed technical superiority, Russia was expected to have air superiority within hours of their invasion, eliminating their much smaller Ukrainian counterparts, as well as the nation’s rudimentary air defense system. Ukrainian efforts to deploy a more modern system, like Israel’s Iron Dome, had been stymied.
Instead, 10 days into the war, the Ukrainian air force continues to fly sorties, and until yesterday, there was scant evidence of Russia’s vaunted Air Force. The invaders were far more content lobbing over 500 guided missiles at Ukrainian targets—which now include civilian structures. This is why a no-fly zone never made much sense, no matter how desperately people in and outside of Ukraine advocate for it. Ukraine is being leveled by guided missiles and rocket artillery, not air strikes. It seemed Russia was far happier losing conscripts and cheap armored vehicles, than their top-of-the-line, expensive aircraft.
“[I]t is clear to us that Russia is losing aircraft and helicopters at a damaging rate,” wrote the Atlantic Council, emphasis theirs. “We believe that a root cause of these Russian losses is the Kremlin’s failure to secure even localized air superiority over Kyiv. As a result, Russian aircraft and helicopter losses have been surprisingly high and unsustainable, Russian attack aircraft and helicopters do not have the freedom of movement to provide close air support to their columns of mechanized forces, and Ukraine’s Turkish-made TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles have been able to operate and destroy a shocking number of Russian vehicles.”
That has started to change over the last 24 hours, as that invisible Air Force has finally made itself seen. No one quite knows why, but there are theories. One is that as Russia’s offensive stalls, there is greater pressure from dictator Vladimir Putin for battlefield successes, and that means throwing everything in their arsenal at the Ukrainian resistance—including their expensive weaponry.
Another theory is that Russia’s stock of guided missiles is running low, forcing Russia to send aircraft to drop “dumb” bombs on targets. Smart munitions are guided, they can lock on their target, and can be fired from a distance. Dumb munitions land wherever momentum and gravity dictate (just like back in WWII). So planes have to fly over the cities they are targeting to continue wreaking their havoc and destruction, putting them in range of man-portable anti-air missiles.
Yet another theory is that Russian pilots simply suck. “Official Russian military statements suggest that Russian pilots fly a bit under 100 hours a year, compared to U.S. Air Force pilots who fly around 180-240 hours a year,” reports Task & Purpose. “Without enough training, pilots might struggle to master the hundreds of new jets Russia has acquired in recent years. Leadership may be hesitant to commit to large-scale combat operations which would show up the gap between external perceptions and the reality of their capabilities.”
Whatever the reasons, Russia now has to additionally contend with thousands of new anti-air missiles Ukraine is getting from its allies. While the thousands of Stingers it is getting from the United States, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Latvia, and Lithuania are generating headlines, other missile systems sent by Poland, Slovakia, France, and the Czech Republican are also capable of wreaking havoc on Russia air assets. Here is a Polish anti-air missile taking out a Russian helicopter. As a result, the Russian Air Force is having a bad day:
We can confirm 20 downed Russian aircraft. That is 1.3% of Russia’s entire air force (1,511, pre-war). Ukraine claims dramatically higher numbers. No matter what the real number is today, a couple more days like this, and those numbers will really start to bite.
More fighter jets for Ukraine don’t make sense—they are expensive to maintain, logistically, and are easier to shoot down than alternatives. A no-fly-zone is a declaration of war against Russia. We don’t need a nuclear confrontation. The alternatives to both are far better and more effective anyway: Flooding the country with man-portable missiles makes every Ukrainian unit an air defense system. And the more planes are shot down, the more fearful Russia will be of committing more planes to the mission. And drones are the best, cheapest (both in unit costs, and in logistical costs), way to harass Russian forces and supply lines from the air.
Ukraine has the manpower, and increasingly, the weaponry to hold inflict serious damage on advancing Russians. Russia will have to decide how much pain they’re willing to endure.
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 7:56:33 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
There’s some interesting actual “fake news” (news that is actually fake … really false … you get it) circulating on the Russian side. That includes a supposed phone call between Putin and a top general discussing how badly things are going and what a disaster invading Ukraine turned out to be. If it’s Ukraine feeding these efforts, they’re doing good work.
But this one just might be real.
Saturday, Mar 5, 2022 · 8:00:27 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
And when it comes to fake video, this is interesting. Russia released a video earlier today in which Vladimir Putin is apparently seated next to a pair of airline stewardesses, as in next to, not 40’ away at the end of a fear table. There had been some question about why Putin felt safe sitting next to these women.
Well, maybe he didn’t. Maybe there were no women.