I really don’t see much about it really — kind of a boring story in a way to most people— but I sure think something is going on. This what I saw about the “rumors” this AM.
It is in Russian — maybe a rumor or not. Who knows? I sure don’t speak Russian.
But what about this —
Here is the thing — over the last two weeks or so the ruble has fallen about 17% against US dollars (and I am sure worse than that in real life — I don’t buy those quotes, much worse than that on the black market I bet). It is an EXTREMELY violent move in a currency. Something is going on for sure.
The thing I’d remember about this is that when the war started there was a hell of a fall in rubles and a bank run — dropped more than 60%. Putin moved very aggressively to stabilize it. He basically had to take interest rates up to 20% (from 9.5) like overnight. And still had to put in big brakes on the currency flows (so there has to be some kind of withdrawal restrictions to make that work, I think). Pretty radical currency manipulation. No one will fucking trust him with their money after that. Really — who in their right fucking mind would trade with him in that currency??????
So if there is a run on the banks again, what the fuck can he possibly do now???? He is basically saying you can’t have your money — if this is correct. It is like he already stole half their money and now he is trying to steal the rest. If I was Russian I would see it that way.
I do think Jason Smart is pretty credible. I have had a few exchanges with him. I think he is a straight shooter. Extremely smart and well connected. If what he is reporting is indeed happening, the Russian Central Banks must be shitting in their pants. Not a fucking thing they could do to stop it this time.
You know it doesn’t really matter what starts a run on a bank in any event — but I do think something bad is going on with that currency. Something is causing it to fall alright. And no matter what is behind this if you are an average Russian your savings (or rather the buying power) just dropped 17% over a couple weeks time. And headed south. They are so fucked. Maybe there is some voodoo Putin could pull to stabilize it for a short time — I don’t see Russian citizens going along with it though. Would you? I think this could get real fucking interesting pretty damn fast.
IMHO