Back in February another laughable COVID story by By Marty Makary appeared in Wall Street Journal with the key takeaway line “...about 55% of Americans have natural immunity.” (Read it here: apple.news/..) One wonders how a financial paper tolerates such poor math reasoning instead of sample data, but it’s been par for the course now since April last year. Claims over and over in different outlets essentially saying “Cases are a zillion times higher than Scientists are willing to admit.” Makary, from the normally reliable Johns Hopkins, delivers it al. The article has dubious mathematical extrapolation, not peer-reviewed or research-based, scientists are conspiring to holding back key information, and is not written by an Epidemiologist (a surgeon), and has a book to sell. Magic!
A particularly bad version of this kind of press came from Stanford’s Dr. Jay Bhattacharya who was routinely dismissed after sponsoring and promoting studies “proving” COVID is widespread and people are alarmist. He, of course is Doctor but not an epidemiologist, but a medical economist. Bhattacharya also was a signatory to the “Great Barrington Declaration” which advocated essentially doing nothing about Covid, we’ll All rapidly have group immunity. His “proof” studies both signed and secret were refuted for failing elementary long division. I kid you not.
[ I intensely dislike “herd immunity”, and prefer “group immunity” or better yet the “Wheel of Fortune” style rhyming and happy-sounding “community immunity”, a dual to “community transmission.” Humans are not herd animals. ]
Today, CNN reports that the Red Cross, in testing blood for COVID antibodies as far back as last year found something quite fascinating. (Read here: apple.news/...)
”According to data shared with CNN over email, about 1.5% of donations tested in the first week of July were positive for Covid-19 antibodies. That increased to nearly 4% of donations tested in the first week of October, about 12% of donations tested in the first week of January and nearly 21% of donations tested in the first week of March.
Dr Jay claimed 10-20% positive for the same period the Red Cross claims 1.5%. These are of course not random samples (I don’t know how many people under 18 or over 75 donate blood) but asymptomatic COVID, the core assertion of “Most of us had Covid already” is very unlikely to be anywhere near what has been stated by Dr Jay or Dr Marty.
Its a shame that medical reporting is politicized — underestimating Covid is a standard, repeating message by conservative media. It’s a shame that doctors are presenting information as through they are epidemiologists instead of bad arithmeticians. It’s a shame that confusing messages are being propagated.
Don’t go financial media for medical information. Don’t go to medical media for investment information. Everyone will be happier.
Now, will the WSJ update with relevant information? I doubt it.
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