Wanted to share some great news from Rick Wilson on today’s New Abnormal Podcast. He and Molly Jong-Fast dive into Lincoln Project voter data and what Rick is seeing from their side. The first 10 minutes or so of their podcast is always great for insider viewpoints from the Trump campaign/GOP perspective:
1. Trump’s base IS slipping.
M: You have access to all this secret Lincoln Project data. What are you seeing?
RW: Mike [Madrid] is seeing that the cement is starting to harden in a lot of these places and the drop-offs Trump has had and his numbers are not being undone. There was a little bit of a pity bounce, okay. Bout 2pts worth. But the slippage is now getting bigger. For a long time there was what we now call a ‘boundary layer’, where the lowest Trump could go was about 43-44%. He’s now under that boundary layer and there’s another one we thought was gonna hold at 38-39%. Well now we’re looking at places where he’s dropping into the 36-35% range. That’s crazy.
So the cement is hardening.
2. Women are voting in massive numbers [Hello 2018]
R: But we’re also seeing the drop with women has been mathematically extra-ordinary. We’ve come out of the field of a bunch of states where women are just — for along time it was about a 20pt. differential with women. In our swing states that we analyzed in a round of polling we came out with yesterday, the average is 27pts.
M: What states?
RW: PA, OH, WI, MI, MN, IA, AZ, FL.
3. Not all rosy. NC and Florida still tough.
R: Some Republicans have come home.
M: Like Where?
RW: North Carolina is a good example. Where Biden is still lagging. It’s a state with an awful lot of non-college white dudes, which is Trump’s singularly strongest demographic.
R: Florida is moving in the right direction. Trump is losing some senior votes off the top.
M: Do you think Florida is do-able?
R: I think Florida is the hardest target. Because it’s so expensive.
M: You’ve also said it’s not just expensive. You’ve said there’s a lot of f****ery there.
R; The Republican party of Florida is the best Republican party in the country for f****ery. I know I helped build the f****ery machine… Now some good news out of Florida we’re starting to see in some key counties. We’re seeing that Democratic crossover to Trump [in some key counties], riding at 4-6%. That always happens. We’re seeing Republicans crossover to Biden in those counties between 12 and 17%…. Florida is gonna be tight no matter what we do.
4. Texas defies...
M: What do you think about Texas?
R: Texas is still a longshot but the numbers are slipping. There is no reason why a Republican President should be only two points ahead in Texas. No reason whatsoever. That’s crazy town.
5. Hunter’s emails. For those folks who weren’t too happy about my earlier diary on why Comey’s letter wasn’t the problem I think this nugget is particularly interesting.
R: The big October surprise yesterday went over like a wet fart...Rudy’s strangely provenanced mystery laptop coming out of nowhere — they’re acting as if it’s gonna be Hillary’s emails 2.0. They ran into two enormous roadblocks today.
Both Twitter and Facebook had a complete ****-block on the whole thing. Like ‘nope, you cannot retweeting those things, not on our platform’. MAGA-world went immediately off agenda, they broke down instantaneously, suddenly there whole thing was now we have to talk about Big Tech. This was not what they did in 2016. They moved as a pack. They were like pack animals. But this time they were distracted immediately, even though Facebook is Donald Trump’s *****.
M: Do we think it was intentional for them to pivot…
R: No, it was because the story was a complete flop. It didn’t work. It didn’t get the traction. I had someone compare the way the Hillary email story took off vs this story. This was their play at about the same time. And it absolutely had 1/20th traction on social media and elsewhere.
IOW, the disinformation apparatus that was in place this time in 2016 to spread the Comey narrative far and wide was shut down thanks to Twitter and Facebook's about-face this month along with a public that has had enough of the BS. (And you know Sen. Murphy flat out called Rudy a Russian Asset this weekend, right?)
All in all some really great news for the final stretch! The bombshell is the 27pt gender gap. That. Is. Massive. More confirmation that 2020 is shaping up to be 2018 on REGENERON. I highly recommend listening to the entire podcast. Always a wealth on information, (if you can handle Rick’s language).
EDIT: This diary isn’t about whether the Lincoln Project is awesome or not or what their sinister future plans are. I really don’t care. Rick Wilson, himself, is a straight shooter and I trust what he hears from the other side
Furthermore this information falls in line with the numbers the Biden campaign shared this weekend as well as the USC/Dornsife tracking poll.