Trump orders attack on Iran! Then calls it off. Trump orders ICE raids on cities! Then calls them off. Trump orders tariffs on Mexico! Then calls them off. Trump orders additional tariffs on China! Then calls them off. Trump destroys national security and turns national policy into chaos! Oh, that is still definitely on.
As The Washington Post reports, Trump’s constant efforts to create drama in national affairs and distract from his last disaster by threatening an all-new, even worse disaster are causing the United States to crumble on every front, generating threats to national security. Over the weekend, multiple Democratic candidates pointed out Trump’s penchant for creating a crisis, only to “solve” that crisis by simply walking away to create another.
While the action to strike Iran, only to call it off, may be the most immediately obvious example of Trump’s set-it-on-fire-then-take-credit-for-putting-it-out strategy, the Post suggests that dealings with Mexico are the real showcase for Trump’s randomly applied, thought-free “policies.” For no apparent reason other than the need to generate a fresh news story, Trump issued an out-of-the-blue tweet threatening tariffs on Mexican goods unless Mexico halted the flow of immigrants into the country. Trump followed this up by issuing a statement that made it clear that what he meant by this was absolutely undefined, what it took for Mexico to satisfy Trump was wholly up to him, and he reserved the right to change his mind without notice.
As subsequent letters showed, Mexico responded to a lot of statements that boiled down to WTF, as it was about to sign a trade deal blessed by Trump, had already made huge changes in its policy to please Trump, and had been negotiating an agreement that included sending thousands of troops to its own southern border. But though nothing really changed, Trump appeared on the White House lawn, waved a single sheet of paper that contained nothing but vague promises, and called off the whole thing … for now. Until a random coin toss decides he needs to once again pretend to “get tough” with Mexico.
That the whole stunt would have put the U.S. in breach of not just the revised, as-yet-unsigned trade deal bearing Trump’s stamp, but also the still-in-force NAFTA, didn’t seem to bother Trump. But then, writing up deals and then ignoring them has been part of Trump’s practice from the beginning. It’s not that he didn’t bring his “business expertise” to Washington; it’s that Trump’s “expertise” was always in the area of being an erratic crook.
Trump’s threats to Mexico mirror threats he made, then called off, to apply additional tariffs against China. In 2018, he threatened to crank tariffs up to 25% unless China signed on to a new, Trump-approved trade deal. China did not. But Trump backed off anyway.
In that deal, Trump first said that negotiators had 90 days to reach a new agreement. But when it became clear that there was no new agreement coming in that time period—or maybe any time period—Trump simply failed to follow up. He still issued the occasional threat, or bragged about all the billions that “China is paying,” but his empty threats remained empty.
So far, Trump’s ICE raid threat is following the same pattern as his attempts to bully Mexico and China. The open question is whether, as in those examples, Trump is going to pretend that “good progress” has been made and walk away from his threats while bragging to the crowd at his next rally, or whether the issue will be visible enough to his base that he feels compelled to go through with this particular horror.
There’s a good reason that Trump makes each of these threats with no numbers or genuine actionable items attached. By doing so, he can claim victory over anything. It’s Tuesday now? I win!
Apply random threat. Claim to have made progress. Don’t follow through on threat. Brag about the “huge win.” The utter lack of genuine policy is Trump’s most dependable policy. And as long as everyone keeps responding to each head fake as if it’s a real move, he’ll keep right on doing it.