District 73 is being contested by 4 Democratic candidates this cycle. The seat is currently held by Republican John O'Bannon. he ran uncontested last cycle. In 2015 O'Bannon drew 12,514 votes in that uncontested race. It is exciting to see so many people challenge for this seat this cycle, it should be a dynamic race!
DISTRICT 73 FAST FACTS
A very straight forward district in terms of locality. District 73 is comprised of 22 precincts all contained within the Henrico County Locality. There are quite a few precincts that represent significant opportunity for all of these candidates. Let's take a look at teh Active Registered Voters to get a clearer picture where the best opportunity lies for whomever wins the primary/caucus process for the Democrats.
Here is the share of Active Voters by Precinct:
Well, there 3 precincts that jump out at me here, Hungary Creek, Staples Mill and Tuckahoe. Just the volume of active registered voters is a good sign of opportunity. This bar graph however is not definitive. Let's dig a little deeper.
This next chart shows republican vote share compared to those that did not vote by precinct.
This chart reinforces the importance of Hungary Creek and Staples Mill but reveals two precincts that look to present more opportunity than Tuckahoe does. Tucker and Pinch Beck both appear to have as many or more people that did not vote as in Tuckahoe. The real advantage they have, in terms of priorities, is they do show less support for the Republican candidate. Of course you would want to spend time everywhere, this just helps set up priorities.
The final scatter plot shows actual vote totals versus the Active Registered Voter total per precinct. The weakest support for the Republican will be the precincts below the red line. The two precincts furthest from the red line represent real weak support for the Republican. These precincts would form a good starting point for building support for any Democratic campaign in this district.
This is just a quick snapshot on some of the analysis that can be done simply based on publicly available data. There is a deeper analysis that can be done for sure.
You can request a file from the ELECT office by contacting Vanessa Archie at vanessa.archie@elections.virginia.gov or at (804) 864-8908. Ask what it would take to obtain the Vote History List for District 66, let her know you are a candidate or working on the campaign if you are a member of the campaign committee.
Let's Turn Virginia Blue in 2017.
Note: My name is Donald Braden. This was posted to my blog on my website The Full Slate Project.