Over the last 3 days we have seen no less than SIX new polls out of New York. ALL OF THEM point to a similar result. They are all showing double-digit leads for Hillary over Bernie, and they are ALL showing the same kind of coalition Hillary has had throughout this nomination contest, where Hillary’s strengths are:
UPDATED
1a. Quinnipiac New York Poll
BLACK VOTES MATTER FOR CLINTON IN NEW YORK, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS;
Hillary 53%, Bernie 40%
With a 65 – 28 percent lead among black voters, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tops Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont 53 – 40 percent among New York State likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Today’s results show little movement from a March 31 survey showing Clinton over Sanders 54 – 42 percent and Trump with 56 percent, followed by Cruz at 20 percent and Kasich at 19 percent.
Hillary gained a point from March 31st in this poll, but that is probably just MoE noise.
“Black voters matter for Secretary Hillary Clinton in the New York Democratic primary,” said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Maurice Carroll. “She leads Sen. Bernie Sanders in many New York demographic groups except the young folks and very liberal voters, but it’s a huge lead among black voters that gives her a comfortable double-digit margin.” “Gender counts, too. New York women like the idea of nominating the first woman president.”
Huge with AAs and with women in New York. Bernie only shows leads with young folks and “very liberal” self-identifiers.
“At this sort-of-late stage in the primary marathon, voters’ minds are pretty well made up. Four out of five supporters of each Democrat say they won't switch,” Carroll added.
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There are some gaps among New York likely Democratic primary voters as voters 18 to 44 years old back Sanders over Clinton 55 – 36 percent, while older voters back Clinton. Self-described “very liberal” Democrats back Sanders 55 – 41 percent, while Clinton takes “somewhat liberal” and “moderate to conservative” Democrats. She leads 55 – 38 percent among women, while men are divided, with 48 percent for Clinton and 43 percent for Sanders, shrinking the gender gap which appears in Quinnipiac University surveys in other states. White voters are divided, with 50 percent for Clinton and 45 percent for Sanders. Clinton leads 53 – 37 percent in New York City and 55 – 40 percent in the suburbs. Upstate Democrats are divided with 50 percent for Clinton and 46 percent for Sanders
1. Marist/NBC/WSJ Poll
Hillary Clinton holds strong lead ahead of primary, poll finds
Hillary up 14 points over Sanders in the Empire state
Hillary 55%, Bernie 41%
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In the Democratic race, Clinton is ahead of Bernie Sanders among likely Democratic primary voters by 14 points, 55 percent to 41 percent.
Clinton leads Sanders among African Americans (68 percent to 28 percent), those ages 45 and older (66 percent to 30 percent) and women (58 percent to 38 percent).
Sanders, meanwhile, holds the advantage among those younger than 45 (62 percent to 37 percent) and those who describe themselves as "very liberal" (59 percent to 40 percent). The two are running roughly even among men and Latinos.
Geographically, Clinton is ahead of Sanders in New York City (58 percent to 39 percent) and in the suburbs (61 percent to 36 percent), but Sanders holds a one-point lead in Upstate New York (49 percent to 48 percent).
From the WSJ writeup:
The Democratic primary in New York is showing voting patterns familiar from prior contests, with independents, liberals and younger voters lining up behind Mr. Sanders, and Mrs. Clinton dominating among self-described Democrats and other traditional constituencies. Mrs. Clinton, who was twice elected to represent the state in the U.S. Senate, has a big advantage in New York City and the surrounding suburbs, while the race is effectively deadlocked upstate.
2. Monmouth Poll
NEW YORK: CLINTON LEADS BY 12
Hillary 51%, Bernie 39%
Currently, 51% of likely Democratic primary voters in New York support Clinton compared to 39% who support Sanders.
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The race is basically tied among non-Hispanic white primary voters (48% for Sanders and 46% for Clinton), while Clinton enjoys a large lead among black, Hispanic and other voters (62% to 22%). Clinton holds a significant advantage among voters age 50 and older (57% to 36%), while the race is much closer among voters under 50 (45% for Clinton to 43% for Sanders).
Clinton earns similar levels of support across the state, including Manhattan and the Bronx (52%), Brooklyn and Queens (48%), Staten Island and the metro suburbs of Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester, Rockland, Orange, and Putnam counties (51%), and upstate New York (51%). Sanders performs better upstate (44%) and in the metro suburbs (41%) than he does in Brooklyn/Queens (36%) or Manhattan/Bronx (35%). However, 13% of primary voters in these four New York City boroughs say they do not have a candidate preference.
3. FoxNews Poll
Clinton rules Empire State
Hillary 53%, Bernie 37%
In the race for the Democratic nomination, Sanders is hoping to turn the momentum from his double-digit Wisconsin win into a home state victory in New York.
The trouble for Sanders is, Wisconsin is the kind of state he wins -- mostly white and independents could participate in the open primary. New York is a more diverse state, and has a closed primary -- and that’s to Clinton’s advantage. Plus, it’s been her home state more recently than Sanders.
The poll shows Clinton tops Sanders by 53-37 percent among NY likely Democratic primary voters. Another nine percent are uncommitted.
Clinton’s clearly the pick among women (61-30 percent) and non-whites (56-37 percent).
Men give the edge to Sanders by just 47-43 percent.
“Sanders has a lot of work to do if he’s going to make this race a close one,” says Anderson. “He’s currently losing among every demographic group with the exception of men and voters under age 45. Many more middle-age New Yorkers are going to have to feel the Bern for Sanders to have a chance of catching Clinton.”
Young voters are Sanders’ biggest backers. He’s up by 11 points among those under 45 (52-41 percent) -- and by 30 points among the under 35 crowd (63-33 percent).
The former NY senator holds a 27-point advantage among voters 45 and over (58-31 percent).
Among those living in a union household, Clinton’s up by 49-40 percent.
She also leads among Jewish voters (59-35 percent) as well as Catholics (53-34 percent).
Regionally, Clinton dominates Sanders in New York City (+19) and is even running slightly ahead beyond the city and its suburbs.
Both Clinton (85 percent) and Sanders supporters (79 percent) have a high degree of vote certainty.
Still, one in five Sanders backers says they could change their mind (20 percent).
4. Baruch College Poll
Hillary Clinton is comfortably ahead of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders
Hillary 50%, Bernie 37%
As for the Democratic fight, Hillary Clinton is comfortably ahead of U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont in the state she represented in the Senate for eight years - but her lead is far smaller than Trump's.
The poll shows 50 percent of likely primary voters back Clinton, and 37 percent support Sanders.
Voters under 30 are overwhelmingly in Sanders' corner. While more than two-thirds of voters over 65 support Clinton. Clinton beats Sanders in every region of the state but they are closest in New York City.
5. Emerson Poll
Hillary up by 18% over Bernie
Hillary 56%, Bernie 38%
In the Democratic race, the Brooklyn-born Sanders still has work to do if he hopes to overtake Clinton, who represented New York in the U.S. Senate. Although Sanders picked up 6 points with African Americans and 23 points with Hispanics since the last ECPS poll, Clinton still has a better than 2-1 advantage with both groups. African Americans favor her 72% to 28%, and Hispanics lean her way 68% to 32%. She also leads Sanders 48% to 43% among white Democratic voters, a group that has tended to favor him. Sanders has closed a big gender gap with both men and women, but Clinton still leads him 60% to 36% among women and 51% to 41% with men. His unflagging popularity with young voters gives him a 60% to 36% edge in the 18-34 age group, but in the other three age categories, Clinton enjoys a wide margin of support: 26 points (ages 35-54), 29 points (55-74) and 41 points (75+).
CONCLUSION
All polls show essentially the same thing: Hillary at 50% or higher, Bernie in the high 30s (one poll shows him at 41%). Hillary with strong advantages with Women, African-Americans, voters over 40 years of age and registered Democrats. Bernie doing better with young voters.
Over the last 3 days all the New York polls combined have averaged out to a margin of 14.6%. With one week to go the state looks good for Hillary.