Cleveland.com obtained a copy of a ‘state of the race’ memo from Clinton's Ohio director, Chris Wyant. I also listened to Hillary’s speech in Cleveland (Friday), which focused for a bit on GOTV and the early vote picture. Piecing together some comments from both, here are some highlights and observations:
- Although the total # of absentee ballot requests in OH is down from 2012, a greater proportion of those requests are coming from the 5 big Dem counties (Cuyahoga, Franklin, Hamilton, Montgomery and Summit). Dems have thus far increased their advantage in returned ballots as compared to 2012.
- More people voted during in person early voting in the first 4 days than over a similar period in 2012 (Hillary stated this in her speech in Cleveland), particularly in Hamilton County (Cincinnati) and Franklin County (Columbus). The campaign is expecting that the total vote and margin in those 2 counties will exceed Obama’s margins in 2012.
- The campaign continues to repeat that more people will vote in this race than ever before and that young people are going to make the big difference in terms of increasing their share of the electorate and total vote.
Though initial reports from Ohio were mixed, it seems we’re getting a clearer picture of things. The campaign is getting its vote out in what appears to be a lower turnout election or later deciding electorate in the state. The really good news is that Hillary appears to be on her way to improving her margins in Hamilton County (Cincinnati) and Franklin County (Columbus). This is strategically important because Hamilton County turned blue for the first time in 2008. In 2008 and 2012, Obama won the county by 7 points. It’s the swing county in OH as it sits in the most GOP part of the state. Winning there neutralizes GOP strongholds in the suburban counties of Cincinnati which routinely go GOP by 2:1 margins or higher. If Hillary were to improve the margin in Hamilton County to 9-10 points and get some marginal improvement in the counties around Cincinnati, it could mathematically eliminate Trump because he’d have to make up ground elsewhere in less favorable counties for a Republican.
We know from some polling that Clinton is running at Obama level margins or higher in Cleveland. What we don’t know is whether the turnout will be as high. That’s probably the big question mark for the Clinton campaign to answer.
On the GOP side, while Trump has been competitive in polling and seems to have a base of support there, his campaign is depending entirely on county party organizations to get out the vote, as he has broken relations with the state party and Kasich. The article suggests that the GOP county parties have been working fairly hard for Trump, but it stands to reason that these organizations are not as well funded or equipped as a national campaign or a state party org, and their strength may vary based on county performance.
If one takes a closer look at the polling, he had a spate of good polls during the pneumonia incident for about 2 weeks and then Hillary seemed to rebound by the time of the 1st debate. She has led in more polls than he has over the course of this month, but the average Clinton lead among all OH polls in October has been about 2 points.
OH seems to be a test case as to whether organization and enthusiasm matter.
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