Back in September 2015 the NY Times described Clinton’s “Southern Firewall” strategy:
Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential campaign is methodically building a political firewall across the South in hopes of effectively locking up the Democratic nomination in March regardless of any early setbacks in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary… [Her advisers] point to her popularity with black and Hispanic voters, as well as her policy stances and the relationships that she and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, have cultivated.
So far in the nomination race, that strategy is playing out, as Clinton has received in the neighborhood of 85% of the black vote, and 65% of the Hispanic vote, and nearly a two hundred delegate lead for the nomination.
This chart shows the races so far with percent of delegates won in each state vs. the level of white population:
Generally, Clinton has prevailed in states with less than 85% white population and lost in whiter states. The only two exceptions to this pattern are Oklahoma and Iowa. But the minority population of Oklahoma is largely Native American and perhaps she prevailed in Iowa due to the extra effort put into winning the first caucus when she had a big cash advantage.
The NY Times article continued:
The Southern firewall also includes Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and North Carolina, which vote through mid-March. If Mrs. Clinton wins big in the Michigan and Ohio primaries that month, her advisers and supporters believe, the nomination will essentially be hers (though crossing the total delegate threshold takes time).
Got to hand it to her advisers, as this describes what is happening now.
Upcoming big states:
- Michigan 80% white
- Ohio 83% white.
- Florida 78% white
- Illinois 78% white
Clinton may have even more of an advantage than the chart indicates, as all but one (NH) of Sanders’ victories have been in caucuses, which have low turnout in relation to primaries.
Now the train moves into Wolverine and Buckeye country. All aboard!