Colorado Democrat Morgan Carroll is off to a fast fundraising start
Leading Off:
• Fundraising: Daily Kos Elections' massive third quarter House fundraising chart is now available. We have listings for over 250 candidates ranging from longshots to top-tier battles, with plenty of hotly contested primaries thrown in as well. You won't find a more comprehensive—and more succinct—roundup anywhere else.
There are a few candidate hauls worth noting. Colorado's swingy 6th District played host to a very expensive contest last year, and 2016 will be no different. Democrat Morgan Carroll brought in a strong $377,000 during her inaugural quarter, and she has $308,000 on hand. However, despite his many gaffes, there's no doubt that Republican incumbent Mike Coffman is a very good fundraiser. Coffman raised $476,000, and he has $860,000 on hand.
Democrat Lon Johnson entered the race for Michigan's 1st District with high expectations, and he delivered. Johnson raised $351,000, and he has $293,000 in the bank. 2014 nominee Jerry Cannon is running again, but he brought in a mere $4,000. Republican Rep. Dan Benishek called it quits late in the quarter and while several Republicans are mulling a bid, no one has jumped in yet.
While Republican Tom Reed easily won another term in NY-23 last year, he came unexpectedly close to losing in 2012. John Plumb, who served as the White House National Security Council's director for defense policy and strategy, is running for Team Blue, and he raised a respectable $225,000. However, Reed is not allowing himself to be caught off guard, and he brought in $337,000. Reed also leads Plumb $735,000 to $205,000 in cash on hand.
Over in the more Democratic NY-21, Democrat Mike Derrick, another veteran, brought in an ok $141,000. Freshman Republican Elise Stefanik proved last year that she can bring in plenty of moolah, and she raised $263,000 this quarter. Stefanik also has a strong $802,000 to $108,000 cash on hand edge. Be sure to check out our chart for a whole lot more.
Senate:
• PA-Sen: As was the case last time, Democrat Joe Sestak has once again brought up the rear in reporting his quarterly fundraising numbers to the public. Now, a week after the filing deadline, we finally have them, and they're not good. Sestak took in $551,000, about half the sum raised by his chief rival, Katie McGinty, whose haul topped $1 million. Sestak also spent a large portion of what he raised—around $300,000—leaving him with $2.4 million in the bank.
Sestak's spent much of his time walking across various parts of Pennsylvania, 14 miles a day, and according to an article describing his most recent trek, it doesn't sound like Sestak's using those hours to call donors:
Sometimes, Sestak's iPhone rings with a radio show interviewer or someone who wants to talk policy. Sometimes he's too focused on his conversation; he finds he's missed a turn and has to backtrack.
If there's one positive to this long march, it's that some poor schnook Republican tracker has been trudging along with him, all day, every day, rain or shine—and he gets to have Sestak bark at him every now and again. That sounds like a really fun job.
Gubernatorial:
• KY-Gov: While the RGA only recently returned to the airwaves, the DGA-backed Kentucky Family Values never left. The group is out with three new spots and per usual, they're hitting Republican Matt Bevin on his taxes.
We also have a rare ad from Bevin himself. The Bevin spot features various people decrying Democrat Jack Conway as too liberal and too much like Obama (they don't go into specifics), while praising Bevin as "not a politician." John Cheves of the Lexington Herald-Leader put it best: "Can you run for various elected offices for several years and keep saying you're 'not a politician'? How many yard signs before you are?" I think once you've aired an ad asking strangers to vote for you, you're definitely a politician.
• LA-Gov: On behalf of the conservative blog The Hayride, MarblePort is out with one last poll of Saturday's jungle primary, but they don't see any surprises. Democrat John Bel Edwards takes first place with 41 percent, while Republican David Vitter takes 29 to grab the second runoff spot. Republicans Jay Dardenne and Scott Angelle take 14 and 13 respectively.
This is the first publicly released poll that was conducted after Oct. 18, when a former prostitute publicly accused Vitter of getting her pregnant in 2000 and coercing her to get an abortion. That story, which is so far uncorroborated, doesn't appear to have done Vitter any short-term damage: Vitter took the same 29 percent in MarblePort's last poll over a month ago. However, Edwards went from 26 to 41 during that time, which is certainly good news for Team Blue: The more votes Edwards wins on Saturday, the fewer Dardenne and Angelle supporters he'll need to cross party lines for him in November.
The University of New Orleans is also out with a jungle primary poll, but there's nothing in it to give Dardenne or Angelle much hope. Vitter and Edwards take the runoff spots with 27 and 25 percent respectively; Angelle takes 14, while Dardenne is at 11.
• OR-Gov: Rich guy and former state Republican Party Chair Allen Alley, who lost the 2010 primary for this seat, has been quiet about his 2016 plans for months. However, Alley has once again confirmed that he "would very much like to run for governor in 2016." Alley hasn't committed to anything, and says that he wants to make sure his business will be in good hands before deciding. If Alley runs, he'll face physician Bud Pierce in the primary: Pierce says he'll spend up to $1 million of his own money. The winner will take on interim Democratic Gov. Kate Brown, who has the luxury of running in a blue state in a presidential year.
House:
• KY-01: A few weeks ago, Democratic state Rep. Gerald Watkins sounded pretty unenthusiastic about running for this open 66-32 Romney seat. However, Watkins now says he's 50-50 on whether or not to get in. Democratic state Sen. Dorsey Ridley has also expressed interest, while state Rep. John Tilley has been mentioned. While Western Kentucky still sends Democrats to the legislature, this area has been hostile to Team Blue at the federal level for a while, and it's going to be tough for the GOP to lose here.
• KY-04: While Republican Rep. Thomas Massie has been a thorn in the House leadership's side, he doesn't have any notable primary challengers anywhere in sight. Still, that's not stopping FreedomWorks from dropping $20,000 on a TV ad praising him.
• MO-01: On Wednesday, state Sen. Maria Chappelle-Nadal confirmed that she will challenge Rep. Lacy Clay in the primary for this safely blue seat. Chappelle-Nadal has argued that Clay was not visible enough during last year's unrest in Ferguson; Chappelle-Nadal herself was hit with tear gas during a demonstration.
However, Chappelle-Nadal will not have an easy time beating the longtime incumbent. While both candidates are African Americans, white voters make up a significant portion of the primary electorate, and Clay has plenty of high-profile white allies. Chappelle-Nadal has also made her share of enemies: Among other things, she spent $20,000 against an old political rival in a race that didn't otherwise involve her.
• MT-AL: State Superintendent of Public Instruction Denise Juneau just announced that she's "seriously considering" a bid against freshman GOP Rep. Ryan Zinke, but says she has no timetable for making a decision. Juneau, who is term-limited in her current job, was the first American Indian woman to win statewide office in Montana, and she'd be about as good a get as possible for Democrats if they hope to challenge Zinke seriously. The odds would certainly be very long in this red state. However, presidential turnout would help, and Juneau would also be running on a ticket with Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock, who seems to be decently popular. Juneau considered running for Senate and House last year, when both posts were open, but ultimately declined.
• NH-02: Republicans have yet to land a challenger to sophomore Rep. Annie Kuster, who isn't looking particularly vulnerable for 2016 after surviving last year's GOP wave. But state House Majority Leader Jack Flanagan says he just formed an exploratory committee to look at a bid and says he "hope[s] to decide over the next few weeks."
Flanagan, however, would enter the race with the mark of Cain stamped upon him, at least as far as conservatives are concerned. Earlier this year, Republicans in the massive, fractious, and loony state House chose former Speaker Bill O'Brien (who presided over the party's loss of the chamber in 2012) to serve in that capacity again after the GOP regained power in 2014. But a band of renegade Republicans sided with Democrats to make Shawn Jasper speaker, and Jasper tapped Flanagan as majority leader. Flanagan claims he's tried to make peace with the rest of his party, but they've pretty much set up their own government in exile: O'Brien and his allies say they don't recognize Jasper and Flanagan's authority, and they've even created their own leadership team.
That toxic environment might be pushing Flanagan toward the exits, but his role in this palace coup could serve as quite the anvil in the Republican primary, and at least a few other candidates are reportedly considering. They include state Senate President Chuck Morse and former state Rep. Lynne Blankenbeker. Morse's name also came up a while back for the now-open governor's race, while Blankenbeker is best-known for suggesting that married couples who lack insurance coverage for birth control should instead practice abstinence. She's also a bin Laden death truther. She should definitely run.
• NY-22: Republican Assemblywoman Claudia Tenney now insists she hasn't ruled out a rematch against GOP Rep. Richard Hanna, whom she lost to by just 7 points in last year's primary. The other day, she called a repeat bid "not likely" but now says she was merely engaged in a "Twitter debate." (It wasn't a debate. Austin Blumenfeld simply asked her a question.) Tenney originally cited the unexpected death of her mother as a reason for her reluctance, and that is more than understandable. As Joe Biden just told us, when you're in the midst of grieving, that's not the right time to consider a run for office.
Legislative:
• VA State Senate: If Democrats want to flip the state Senate next month, they almost certainly need to win the GOP-held SD-10. Gun Safety Action Fund, a group financed by ex-New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, is spending $700,000 in support of Democrat Dan Gecker. Their spot features Andy Parker, whose daughter Alison was murdered in August's shooting in Roanoke. Parker calls for leaders to take action on gun violence, while a narrator argues that Republican Glen Sturtevant will "make Virginia families less safe." Both candidates had raised a little less than a combined $2 million as of the end of September, so $700,000 is a massive sum for this contest.
His Bloominess is also coming to Team Blue's aid in Northern Virginia's SD-29, where the GOP is on the offensive. Everytown for Gun Safety is spending a hefty $1.5 million on TV and online ads supporting Jeremy McPike, who faces Republican Hal Parrish. This spot also stars Ward.
Until recently, SD-07 was seen as another good Democratic pickup opportunity. However, Democratic nominee Gary McCollum has looked a lot less appealing ever since the Army Reserves confirmed that he was discharged in 2001, even though McCollum had claimed he was still serving. So it's pretty surprising to see that Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe will be campaigning for McCollum on Saturday. Maybe Team Blue still thinks McCollum has a shot here, though he'll need to catch a lot of breaks if he wants to unseat Republican Frank Wagner in this swingy Hampton Roads seat.
Other Races:
• LA-AG, LG: MarblePort also takes a look at the jungle primaries for Louisiana's downballot statewide contests. In the race for attorney general, incumbent Buddy Caldwell and ex-Rep. Jeff Landry, a fellow Republican, are tied with 32 percent each. Democrat Geraldine Baloney is all the way back with just 12 percent so unless this poll is very wrong, Caldwell and Landry will be advancing to the Nov. 21 runoff.
In the open seat contest for lieutenant governor, it looks like Jefferson Parish President John Young's financial advantage over ex-Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser has finally allowed Young to run away with this contest. Young and Democrat Kip Holden each take 32 percent, while Nungesser is all the way in third place with 22. While Holden leads populous East Baton Rouge Parish, he has raised little money and he won't have an easy time beating Young in a runoff. MarblePort also finds the GOP incumbents easily leading in the races for secretary of state, treasurer, and insurance commissioner.
Grab Bag:
• Canada: Earlier this week, Canada's Liberal Party roared to a massive win, crushing the ruling Conservatives and bringing Prime Minister Stephen Harper's decade-long tenure to an abrupt end. But how exactly did the Grits pull it off? Daniel Donner takes a detailed look at the election results, with plenty of maps and charts that catalog the Tory collapse. Be sure to click for the appropriately moose-shaped cartogram of Canada!
• Primaries: Saturday brings us one of our very few primaries of the year out of Louisiana. While the gubernatorial jungle primary will take center stage, there's a lot to watch downballot, and we have our traditional primary preview. We'll be liveblogging the results starting at 9 PM ET when polls close.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir and Jeff Singer, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and Stephen Wolf.