With Romney out, Jeb Bush is next in line in both polls of Republicans and of Republican money, that is, in fundraising. But Jeb Bush is deeply loathed by many on the left, right, and middle.
And after Bush in the polls? Huckabee, Paul, Carson, Walker, Rubio, Christie, Santorum, Jindal, Cruz?
You make me laugh, Republicans. Let me tell you something about your people, your issues, and your standing in the polls for the last two years.
I tell you what, though. My fearless prediction is that before this is done, but long after the big money has committed itself, there will be an even lamer Draft Romney movement. After all, when the other candidates have demonstrated their ability to lose big, the big money could always uncommit itself. The part that hasn't already been wasted, I mean. Couldn't it?
Out of all of the factions in the Republican Party that I identified in A Republican Bestiary, none of the prospective candidates has wide support, and each has factions that loathe them. Certainly Democrats can't stand any of them (except a few that like Rand Paul on some parts of the insanity of our courts and prisons), and not that many Independents, either.
Jeb Bush in particular is loathed by several Republican factions for his stances on immigration and education, and for his association with big-government, blow up the debt, warmongering, incompetent, corporate bailer-out George W. Bush.
The Tea Parties profess to hate the generic 1%/Wall Street/Chamber of Commerce/country club Republican ideology of tax cuts and deregulation, and they certainly loathe and despise regular Republicans at the RNC who have been thinking that hating everybody is no longer a path to a majority. To all of the other factions, adhering to the traditional Republican core values of money above all else, while only pretending to support all of the hatreds of the other segments of The Base, is the essence of RINOness. Actually trying to appeal to anybody other than The Base is even worse.
What can the Republicans do about that? Not much.
Polling
Jeb Bush is upside-down with voters nationally, with favorable-unfavorable polling scores of only 21% to 32% in an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
Check out the notable quotes section in this Front Page Diary by Kerry Eleveld.
Jeb Bush: A dyed-in-the-wool conservative donning moderate clothing
Actual Policy Prescriptions
Zero. I’m not kidding.
A meaningless
Fox News poll just before the announcement put the candidates at
Mitt Romney |
21% |
|
Mike Huckabee |
11% |
Rand Paul |
11% |
Jeb Bush |
10% |
Ben Carson |
9% |
Scott Walker |
8% |
Marco Rubio |
5% |
Chris Christie |
4% |
That's five prospects within the margin of error (one important measure of meaninglessness), and two also-rans.
Here is another way of understanding the meaninglessness of the numbers above, in the form of the Real Clear Politics average of previous polling without Romney.
Jeb Bush |
16.4% |
|
Chris Christie |
9.4% |
Mike Huckabee |
9.0% |
Rand Paul |
8.6% |
Ben Carson |
8.4% |
Bush now springs to the front of the pack, but the rest are bunched within the margin of error, so this tells us nothing at all about their relative strengths.
This doesn't give any of them, including Jeb, much of a floor among die-hard supporters in one faction or another, and few have any of what they call upside potential, that is, the ability to appeal to other Republican factions, let alone Independents. Rand Paul is the only one with crossover appeal to any Democrats, from his proposals on sentencing reform (think pot). But he is totally non-Libertarian when it comes to Choice. In fact, he is this kind of Libertarian:
One who claims that everybody of any importance should be able to do anything that does not harm anybody of any significance in any way worth bothering about.
Thus Liberty for business owners to discriminate comes well before allowing the Federal government to enforce any Civil Rights of human people. And now he has gotten himself into trouble over measles vaccinations, trying to say at the same time that every child should be vaccinated and that parents should be able to refuse, and that TV interviewers are mean when they ask real questions.
The Other Polling
On the other hand, whom does the money like? The Kochs, who plan to commit $889 million (otherwise described as $0.9 billion) to state and Federal contests in this next cycle, obviously favor their boy, Scott Walker. If not Walker, Rubio looks like their second choice. Mitt's former backing from Wall Street has already largely gone over to Jeb Bush. There are plenty who would like to support Christie, but he is having to make a hard sell that New Jersey's budget woes and Christie's scandals and bullying behavior, and now his measles gaffe, haven't hurt him. Not significantly, anyway.
With Romney Out, Republican Presidential Hopefuls Scramble for His Donors
The next 48 hours, several donors said, could not only answer the question of whether Mr. Bush will face a serious challenge from Mr. Christie for the Republican Party’s establishment mantle. It may also demonstrate whether there is room left for anyone else in the first tier of Republican candidates.
Sheldon Adelson is expected to commit serious money again, possibly another $100 million or so, but we haven't heard for sure who is his choice, even though prospective candidates have been assiduously courting his favor. Here is a a view from last October at Salon.com.
Will GOP billionaire Sheldon Adelson bankroll Mike Huckabee in 2016?
Basically, is Huckabee sufficiently pro-Israeli war crimes and pro-casino, specifically anti-Internet-gambling?
That leaves Paul, Santorum, Carson and those even further down the laugh-out-loud scale fighting over table scraps.
Hatreds
What passes for issues on the Right, other than taxes and deregulation for the rich, is whom to hate most, and what kinds of injury to do them.
I call this the War on Everybody Including Each Other. It doesn't have to be this way.
- The Left would mostly be perfectly willing to leave the Religious Right alone if it only imposed its rules about sex and marriage on each other, and left the rest of us to our own devices.
- You don't have to believe science, but you can't stop the rest of us learning and applying our best understanding of molecular biology, cosmology, and Global Warming. Actual economics, likewise.
- You don't have to approve of sex education, but you can't stop the rest of us learning and applying it so as to reduce disease, unintended pregnancies, and abortions.
- You don't have to take evil Obamacare insurance subsidies, but you can't stop others doing it, or going on Medicaid or whatever.
- Illegal immigrants wish we had the old guest worker program, where they could come in to be exploited in the fields at harvest time and go home to their families in between. Then they wouldn't have to become unauthorized permanent residents and bring their children with them.
- I don't even want to get started on useless military spending, and not giving real foreign aid for, say, education and infrastructure that would hire locals to make the goods and do the work. Hey! What about infrastructure, education, and jobs right here? It wouldn't kill any Republicans. But if I have to pay taxes to fund the military, I say you don't get to complain about taxes helping the poor.
- Blacks do not want to enslave or impoverish Whites with Reparations. They want a fair shot at education, housing, jobs, health care, and so on. Oh, and respect. Just ordinary, everyday respect like not getting shot.
- OK, I admit that we do want to regulate businesses that otherwise put profit ahead of public health and safety, and undo the Reagan redistribution of wealth upward. Call me a Socialist. I'm with Bill Maher on this. It turns out to be good for business to have, you know, customers with money in their pockets.
Of course, if
Living well is the best revenge
then that won't mollify the haters in any way.
Whom do Republicans hate? (And who has put themselves forward to channel those hatreds?)
Minorities, of course. Hatred of Blacks is the bedrock foundational principle of the Southern Strategy from the 1960s, actually starting from the day in 1948 when Harry Truman signed the executive order to desegregate the military, and Strom Thurmond made up his mind to bolt from the Democratic Party. Officially, Republican racism is over, and various Republicans, including Ben Carson, claim that it is the Democrats who are the racists.
Women. Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee are the strongest on the Religious Right War on Women, specifically on abortion and contraception, but also on equal pay and other forms of equal treatment.
Immigrants. Bush and Rubio tried to make immigration reform their issue, and failed dismally.
Gun safety advocates, including anybody who wants to look into gunshot wounds and deaths as a public health issue. None of the candidates is talking up guns except Huckabee, who put it in the title of his book, God, Guns, Grits, and Gravy. Gays didn't make the title, but Huckabee provided two whole chapters of gay-bashing: Same-Sex Marriage and the Law (God's and Man's); and Bend Over and Take It Like a Prisoner.
LGBTs. Huckabee, Santorum, and especially Carson are the most viciously anti-gay. Huckabee is currently trying to have it both ways on Teh Gay. In fact he is trying to have everything both ways, as you can see in his viciously insulting book, God, Guns, Grits, and Gravy, claiming to have uncovered
the differences of opinion between the “Bubble-villes” of the big power centers and the “Bubba-villes” where most people live
while denying that he thinks uneducated country folk are smarter and more moral than Harvard professors.
Enemies of Jesus and Christmas. Muslims, atheists, and in the limit all non-Christians, including all actual Christians not in the wackadoodle wing of their preferred short list of Evangelical churches plus the most benighted Catholics. Maybe Mormons and ultra-Zionist Jews are not beyond the Pale, but those are tough calls. Rick Perry and Bobby Jindal were big at the Christianist prayer rallies known as The Response, where Bryan Fischer of the American Family Association claimed that only Christians qualified for First Amendment Freedom of Religion. That was how both Perry and Jindal kicked off their campaigns for 2012 and 2016 respectively.
The Candidates
Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio actually want to do immigration reform, which disqualifies them. Unless, of course, Jeb throws his wife under the bus. Rubio has already made it plain (since the Tea Parties got to him) that the only immigrants deserving of any consideration are those coming from Cuba.
Santorum and Huckabee are religious Culture Warrior wackadoodles, and little else. Bobby Jindal and Rick Perry are not far behind, but they spread the wackadoo a bit wider.
Actually, Rick Perry has three reasons to run for President. There are fame and power, and then he can't remember what the third one is. Wait, money! Of course! And he has three qualifications: hair, glasses, and um, ah, um…
Ben Carson has said only one thing that makes sense (Yes, we should require measles vaccinations) outside of his specialty, brain surgery. But then he made up for it with this, to Jake Tapper on CNN.
These are things that we had under control. We have to account for the fact that we now have people coming into the country, sometimes undocumented people, who perhaps have diseases that we had under control.
Yes, Ben, we get it. The measles outbreak was caused by illegal immigrants from Disneyland. Politics is not brain surgery, you know. It's apparently harder.
Rand Paul doesn't know what he wants, but he is certain that he wants it because Liberty, until he wants something else, and then he denies ever wanting the previous thing, and how dare you bring up what he actually said!
Scott Walker's only visible ideology is Koch brothers campaign funding.
The only thing Ted Cruz has shown real interest in other than self-promotion is destroying the Federal government.
Bobby Jindal, a former Rhodes Scholar with a degree from Oxford, only makes an impression nationally when he has an opportunity to compete with Louis Gohmert for the title of stupidest Republican. We first noticed him nationally with volcano monitoring denial, and now it's No Go Zones in British cities, an Islamophobic idea that even Fox News won't have anything more to do with.
Chris Christie is the most visibly corrupt. He wants to be able to tell everybody else to sit down and shut up because of how serious and important he is, and he wants all government revenue and appropriations in his slush funds. Plus freebies from businesses with business before the state of New Jersey.
The rest, like Lindsey Graham, John Kasich, George Pataki (Disclosure: My classmate), Carly Fiorina, and Bob Corker, who made the Chris Hayes All In draft, and Mike Pence, who did not, are at best also-rans who hope they can be considered for VP, or at least a book deal.
We can give thanks, at least, that some of the clowns from last time have fallen out of the car: Newt Gingrich, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Roy Moore, Buddy Roemer, and the usual crowd of Some Dudes who mostly didn't even get on the ballot. They will, however, be replaced by a new crowd of Some Dudes.
Also Jon Huntsman tried to run as an actual Republican, which the Republican Party of course would have nothing to do with.
Sarah Who? and The Donald are only in it for the publicity and the grift. They have made it abundantly clear that they have no intention of really running, or ability to do so.
Polls That Mean Something
Not all polling on the 2016 Presidential race is entirely meaningless, even though it is far too soon. Here are some of the polls that matter. Start with Real Clear Politics: General Election: Bush vs. Clinton. HRC wins by 5-13 points in every one of six different polls, including one by Fox. Similarly, or in some cases worse for the Republican, if you click the buttons for matchups with Christie, Paul, Ryan, Huckabee, and Cruz.
HuffPost Pollster has poll listings and a chart showing the same outcomes in almost every poll in the last two years. The last poll that they list showing HRC with less than a 5-point lead was in March 2014.
There are several sites where you can drill down further to state-level polls. These clowns can win in deep Red states, but just like Romney they are behind in almost every swing state except North Carolina. And our team is going to be seriously registering voters to turn several Red states Purple.